cc: stefan@pik-potsdam.de date: Fri, 17 Dec 2004 17:45:22 +0100 from: Stefan Rahmstorf subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] contribution: draft 6.4.3.3 to: IPCC Chapter 6 Dear friends of chapter 6, attached is my draft for the section on "Model validation, abrupt climate changes", together with a figure and an EndNote reference list. In the brevity of space it is impossible to provide a comprehensive review, so I have gone for the following tactics: - some general remarks on what's special about validating abrupt changes, as compared to the earlier sections - some illustrative examples: DO events (in some detail), YD event, H events, 8.2k event and Sahara vegetation change very briefly - discussing the issue of whether current models somehow underestimate past abrupt changes as suggested by some authors. I have proposed one figure to go with this section. The sensitive issue is that I am a coauthor of this work so might just be pushing my own barrow - hence someone else (the CLAs) need to decide whether to use this figure. I do think (hope) there are some objective reasons for selecting it, though. Firstly, it is a nice example of comparing a "generic" model event with a bunch of real events from ice core data. Secondly, using the highly praised Google Scholar engine with the key words "Dansgaard Oeschger Event" churns out this paper as the 3rd-most cited paper on this topic (90 times cited, for a paper that was published only in 2001), after the famous Blunier et al. and Bond et al. data papers. I look forward toyour feedback on this section. Stefan -- Stefan Rahmstorf www.ozean-klima.de www.realclimate.org Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Figure_6.4.3.3.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Chapter6_Rahmstorf.enl" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\6.4.3.3.doc" _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06