cc: "Keith Briffa" , "Ricardo Villalba" date: Thu, 18 Nov 2004 11:14:49 +0300 from: "Olga Solomina" subject: Holocene IPCC to: Valérie Masson-Delmotte Dear Valerie, I am sending you now the figure (fig. 1) with Holocene glacier fluctuations to compare with your two graphs. I guess it will be just "technical" for your use to help the writing, but if you believe that we can include it I'll put more efforts there. It does not show all regions, but rather aims to represent the latitudinal diversity. I did not find anything comprehensive for China in terms of glaciers, but there is a very good overview (He et al., 2004 - He, Y., Theakstone, W.H., Zhonglin, Z., Dian, Z, Tandong, Y., Tuo, C., Yongping, S., Hongxi, P. (2004). "Asynchronous Holocene climatic change across China." Quaternary Research 61: 52-63), which shows different trends across China. Antarctic is still a big mess - there are so big discrepancies that it is not clear to whom believe. Plus it is obvious that we do not know what is a climatic trigger of glacier advances in this region, response time might be huge, the reservoir correction problem etc. I will continue to study this problem, but at the moment it would be better just not mention it. It is amazing, but very few was published recently about the Alps - there are records on glacier variations 20 years old, so I think we will have to use it. (I will send the figure capture this evening - sorry, this week is just full of stupid meetings!). The fig 1 shows the general retreat from 10000 to 6000-5000 14C BP, when glaciers were smaller than now, which might be relevant to IPCC. This is in general agreement with the orbital forcing. Solar influence in most cases is less obvious, because of the nature of the data: discontiouous, biased (the bigger later advances erasing the earlier records), plus the rough dating and the uncertain lag between the date of the dated organic material and the actual glacier advance. The best records in Scandinavia, however, demonstrate a similarity with 14C variations (Karlen and Kuylenstierna, 1996). The relation with sun is even more evident when one compares the reconstructed winter precipitation with the Bonds cycles ( Nesje et al., 2001, fig. 2). The clusters of 14C dates of the wood upper the modern glacier limits in the Alps are in agreement with the Scandinavian glacier advances and 14C age plateau (Hormes, 2001), which also evidences the solar influence. The volcanic forcing vs glacier variations did not get much attention recently. I do not think we can say much now about it. I am not sure what should go to the "Role of oceanic, atmospheric, land surface, cryosphere processes in this scale of variability. Discuss glaciers." from my side? Remnants of the Early Holocene ice sheets? What happened with the sea-level? Did you find someone to help? There are several topics, such as scale of glacier variations, Neoglacial, 8.2 event, that I will contribute more, just not ready yet. My main problem here is that I cannot get the J.Grove (2004) book - it does not exist in the country. So I have to fish little things from a sea of publications instead of just use the ready overview. Probably some points that I included in the Keith's part (sent earlier) will fit better to the Holocene general trends. Concerning the modelling. I suggest we can ask Oerlemans to be a contributing author if we need a considerable writing for this topic. But it might be better to approach him after we have a straw-man draft. Please let me know if you need some urgent information by tomorrow dead line. Good luck with your writing (must be hard). Cheers, olga Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Nesje_Bond.psd" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Hol gl IPCC.cdr"