date: Fri Oct 10 14:52:43 2003 from: Mike Hulme subject: Fwd: Genie: deep ocean temperature & sea-level to: r.warren@uea.ac.uk For info. Mike X-Sender: jgs@mail.soc.soton.ac.uk X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1.1 Date: Thu, 09 Oct 2003 16:58:27 +0100 To: Mike Hulme From: John Shepherd Subject: Genie: deep ocean temperature & sea-level Mike re using the Genie model for millennial studies, deep ocean temperature & sea-level, which we discussed, please see messages below... It sounds as though the tuned version (parameters chosen statistically to get best fit to the data, which we can do because the model is so fast) is doing pretty well, as good as (or better than) most GCM's, so I think this could be a runner.... John From: Julia Hargreaves User-Agent: Mozilla/5.0 (Windows; U; Windows NT 5.1; en-US; rv:1.0.2) Gecko/20030208 Netscape/7.02 X-Accept-Language: en-us, en, ja To: "James D. Annan" Cc: Tim Lenton , jgre@bgs.ac.uk, genie-science@imperial.ac.uk Subject: Re: [genie-science] Re: Hydrate modelling X-Spam-Status: No, hits=-2.6 required=5.0 tests=EMAIL_ATTRIBUTION,REFERENCES,SPAM_PHRASE_00_01,USER_AGENT, USER_AGENT_MOZILLA_UA,X_ACCEPT_LANG version=2.44 X-Spam-Level: Sender: genie-science-admin@ic.ac.uk X-BeenThere: genie-science@ic.ac.uk X-Mailman-Version: 2.0.8 List-Help: <[1]mailto:genie-science-request@ic.ac.uk?subject=help> List-Post: <[2]mailto:genie-science@ic.ac.uk> List-Subscribe: , <[3]mailto:genie-science-request@ic.ac.uk?subject=subscribe> List-Id: List-Unsubscribe: <[4]https://mailman.icpc.doc.ic.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/genie-science>, <[5]mailto:genie-science-request@ic.ac.uk?subject=unsubscribe> List-Archive: <[6]https://mailman.icpc.doc.ic.ac.uk/mailman/private/genie-science/> Date: Wed, 08 Oct 2003 18:24:06 +0900 X-MailScanner-SOC: Found to be clean James has spurred me on to look at the results for the other deep ocean basins... The mean of our tuned ensemble is about 1.5 degrees too warm in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans, about 0.5 degrees in the Pacific and 0.25 degrees in the Indian, The 1 std spread of the ensemble is of the order of one degree. Errors in the upper ocean are bigger! jules James D. Annan wrote: >Tim Lenton wrote: > > > >>1. Deep ocean / sea floor temperatures are notoriously badly predicted >>by global models, tending to be systematically too warm. Ours is no >>exception. >> >> > >Our tuned model (ensemble) actually seems to give pretty good deep ocean >temperatures, at least inasmuch as we've looked at them (ie deep Pacific >2.5C versus Levitus data 2C). However I cannot guarantee that other >aspects of the model state are in any way realistic! > >James > > _______________________________________________ genie-science mailing list genie-science@ic.ac.uk [7]https://mailman.icpc.doc.ic.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/genie-science