cc: Keith Briffa , Tim Osborn , Raymond Bradley date: Sat, 12 Jul 2003 07:35:29 -0400 from: "Michael E. Mann" subject: Re: 03-19 Mann et al. - climate change press release issued to: Harvey Leifert , Phil Jones Dear all, This translation from my colleague Gavin Schmidt, mike ____________________________ Global Warming: Climatologists respond to the American right. The scientific consensus against the ideologues: The heat is on! Thirty eminent (anglo-saxon) scientists specialising in climate change and the greenhouse effect have just re-affirmed in an article in EOS that the anthropogenic contribution to global warming is stronger than a simple hypothesis. The article is a response to a a series of publications that the Bush administration are relying on to reject the terms of the Kyoto Protocol. Among the authors in the EOS article, we find Michael Mann, geophysicist from UVa. His research has evaluated the impact of human activity on planetary climate. He has notably put forward evidence of highly abnormal temperature rises in the 20th Century. His studies, published in some of the most prestigious journals, have contributed to what the National Academy of Science and AGU recognised in 1998, as anthorpogenic global warming. Don't touch my car! Despite the growing number of studies that indicate that the current levels of GHG emissions are destabilising the global climate, the American government still refuses to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Apart from ideological arguments concenring the 'sacred character of the American way of life', the Bush administration argues against the scientific case presented in the IPCC reports. The administration particularly relies on the work of two astrophysicists, Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas. These two have denied the reality of the warming during the 20th Century in two different articles. These studies were little noticed in the scientific world, but were nevertheless largely financed and publicised by the "think tanks" on the American right. The intense lobbying that led to the rejection of Kyoto was accompanied by the creation of a series of scientific foundations linked to ultraconservative groups which currently influence American politics (such as the Heritage Foundation or the Moonies). The objective of these research centres is to produce counter-arguments and muddy the waters. If they admit to a global warming, the "experts" of the George Marshall Coalition or Institute attribute that to solar forcing. These same "experts" do not hesitate at the same time to declare that there has not been any warming, and that the data from IPCC has been falsified. Climatologist versus Astrophysicists For other "specialists", coming from the so-called Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide & Global Change, the greenhouse effect will even be ecologicaly beneficial because it favours increased photosynthesis! Denouncing the lack of seriousness and the scientific independence of the work of Baliunas and Soon, Mann and his colleagues therefore decided to refute their arguements one by one in EOS. In producing a detailed review of the data and the models, they reject the astrophysicists conclusions and reaffirm the existence of an anthropogenic component to global warming. They underline, amongst other points, that the publication of their response in a peer-reviewed journal demonstrates that there does exist a strong consensus of scientists with regard to [the causes of] global warming. At 09:42 AM 7/11/2003 -0400, Harvey Leifert wrote: Phil, You have also made it onto the junk science website. They reprinted the release, with the introductory note (approximately), if you believe this they will tell you another! On the other side, a French news site has proclaimed Mike et al. leaders of the anti-Bush-because-of -Kyoto brigade. It's only in French, but if you can read it, it's at [1]http://www.transfert.net/a9101 Regards, Harvey Phil Jones wrote: Mike, The New Scientist article is here in hard copy form. It isn't on the web site - no link to it. It is fair and shows a diagram of the NH and SH (from the GRL paper !!!). Titled 'Climatologists hit back at greenhouse sceptics'. Fred Pearce didn't call Tim and Keith here earlier in the week. The only call they got was from the Sunday Telegraph who may run with something, but they haven't called back. No-one called me in Japan, so I guess we will have to wait for the GRL article. I'm away from August 2 for two weeks, so I hope you'll get more then. I will be here the whole of the July 28 week. The sceptics have seen it though from the two emails from Timo Hameranta. Cheers Phil At 21:17 10/07/03 -0400, Michael E. Mann wrote: Dear Harvey, Do you know if there has been anything in the press on this yet? I've seen the press release posted on various outlets on the WEB, and there has been lots of interest from politicos and other scientists on this. However, the only article that I'm aware of on this is apparently slated for the July 12 issue of "New Scientist". I haven't seen the article yet (not available online). Perhaps Tim, Phil, or Ray have other information. best regards, mike At 04:56 PM 7/7/2003 -0400, Harvey Leifert wrote: All, We issued the press release at 3:40 p.m. EDT Monday, July 7. It was sent to 900 science writers worldwide on our distribution list and posted on EurekAlert!, the AAAS web site for science press releases. Almost immediately, we received requests for the full article from The New York Times, USA Today, National Public Radio, Toronto Star, San Jose Mercury News, Cox Newspapers, Richmond Times-Dispatch, and four freelancers. It was too late for most Europeans to receive the release Monday, so we expect additional requests Tuesday morning. Thanks to all for your help. Harvey -- Harvey Leifert Public Information Manager American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009, USA Phone: +1-202-777-7507 Fax: +1-202-328-0566 Email: [2]hleifert@agu.org Web: [3]http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/media.html ### ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: [4]mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [5]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [6]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Harvey Leifert Public Information Manager American Geophysical Union 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20009, USA Phone: +1-202-777-7507 Fax: +1-202-328-0566 Email: [7]hleifert@agu.org Web: [8]http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/media.html ### ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [9]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml