cc: "Bamzai, Anjuli" <Anjuli.Bamzai@science.doe.gov>, Myles Allen <m.allen1@physics.ox.ac.uk>, Tim Barnett <tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu>, Nathan <N.Gillett@uea.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jones@uea.ac.uk>, David Karoly <dkaroly@unimelb.edu.au>, knutti@ucar.edu, Tom Knutson <Tom.Knutson@noaa.gov>, Toru Nozawa <nozawa@nies.go.jp>, Doug Nychka <nychka@cgd.ucar.edu>, Claudia Tebaldi <tebaldi@rap.ucar.edu>, Ben Santer <santer1@llnl.gov>, Richard Smith <rls@email.unc.edu>, Daithi Stone <stoned@atm.ox.ac.uk>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk>, Michael Wehner <MFWehner@lbl.gov>, Xuebin Zhang <Xuebin.Zhang@ec.gc.ca>, Francis Zwiers <Francis.Zwiers@ec.gc.ca>, hvonstorch@web.de, "Amthor, Jeff" <Jeff.Amthor@science.doe.gov>, Chris Miller <christopher.d.miller@noaa.gov>
date: Fri, 14 Sep 2007 17:08:40 +0100
from: Gabi Hegerl <gabi.hegerl@ed.ac.uk>
subject: near term climate change
to: JKenyon <kenyon@duke.edu>

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Hi all,

I was at the WGCM meeting last week, and the issue of saving 20th 
century runs and high resolution runs was only discussed marginally 
among the big worry about scenarios and carbon cycle. However, there 
seems to be a lot of momentum to do initial value forced predictions. I 
think it would be very good to get for AR5 predictions based on various 
techniques including attributable ghg and initial values. So TIm 
Stockdale and I hammered out this proposal (with some suggetsed edits by 
me but those are still subject to Tims ok)
 - this may sound like its going down way to far the initial value trail 
for our interests, but it tries to serve all kinds of communities able 
to do some form of prediction.
Comments welcome, Peter has a collegue going to a meeting in the 
Netherlands next week where this issue will be more discussed, so having 
a view say this weekend or monday would be particularly good

Gabi

-- 
Dr Gabriele Hegerl 
School of GeoSciences
The University of Edinburgh
Grant Institute, The King's Buildings
West Mains Road
EDINBURGH EH9 3JW 
Phone: +44 (0) 131 6519092, FAX: +44 (0) 131 668 3184
Email: Gabi.Hegerl@ed.ac.uk 


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