cc: Stefan Rahmstorf , stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Malcolm Hughes , "Raymond S. Bradley" , Caspar Ammann , Gavin Schmidt , Keith Briffa , Jonathan Overpeck , juerg@giub.unibe.ch date: Wed, 14 Dec 2005 17:10:47 +0100 from: Heinz Wanner subject: Our article in QSR to: mann@meteo.psu.edu Dear Mike, back from the AGU in S.F. I found your comment about our short QSR article. I tried to understand your concern, and I think I can do it. Let me tell first that I always supported the MBH 98 and your other publications in their general statements even I always warned my students about the problem of a precise estimation of the amplitudes. I also often defended your work in European newspapers and in TV interviews and always said that human influence is crucial and greenhouse gas concentrations grow. I very often argued with your, Jim Hansens and others stuff and fought with sceptics directly. I always voted in the way that we will get hundreds of new reconstructions but no change of the general structure and statements. I also had discussions with Hans von Storch because, in my view, he pushes the adaptation part too much (and does in fact not think about the poor populated areas like Bangladesh who have no penny to do adaptation!). There is a minor difference between our argumentation which is reflected in the last sentence of our article. Let me try to explain what this difference is: First of all, many European colleagues have the chance to talk with ministers, parliament members and directors of federal agencies directly. Secondly, we often have open discussions with greenhouse gas sceptics where we only have a chance if we are strict and precise, but also critical against our methods and findings. Thirdly, and that is probably the most important statement, we got a terrible warning shot across the bows in Europe with the whole debate on forest decline in the 1980s. Almost all forecasts were wrong. Therefore, I am very careful with my statements, and this last sentence was a statement showing that we have to be critical with the assessment of our methodological instruments. When talking with ministers (and I know our president very well) I am also open minded in the way that I show them that temperature is steadily rising, mostly induced by daily increasing greenhouse gas emissions. But we have to take in mind that this temperature trend, linear or not, is clearly superimposed with possible decadal oscillators (e.g., in Europe by NAO /AMO processes). What happens with the public opinion if we get another ten cold winters or our temperature estimates of the past get a slight correction? I am convinced that the way we actually go is quite successful. Also realize that we set up a national platform on our academy of sciences which informs policy and industry and organizes one luncheon talk on climate change issues for ministers and parliament members given by important scientists during each parliament session. That is quite successful. Finally, I think our standpoints are not far away. I only believe that our freedom to talk directly with the responsible politicians gives us the opportunity to express our position in an extremely open way. Therefore, it could be that I would not have supported to write such a sentence when living in a very big country not having our chances to talk with opinion leaders. Anyway, I do not have the feeling that we are not travelling in the same ship or that we fight in different armies, on the contrary! Merry Christmas, Heinz --------------------------------------------------------------- Dr. Heinz Wanner, Prof., Director of NCCR (National Center of Competence in Research in Climate) --------------------------------------------------------------- Office Institute of Geography: Office NCCR Climate: Institute of Geography NCCR Climate Climatology and Meteorology Management Center Hallerstrasse 12 Erlachstrasse 9a CH-3012 Bern CH-3012 Bern Phone +41 (0)31 631 8885 Phone +41 (0)31 631 3160 Fax +41 (0)31 631 8511 Fax +41 (0)31 631 4383 www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet/ www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch e-mail: heinz.wanner@giub.unibe.ch ---------------------------------------------------------------