date: Mon, 14 Apr 2008 10:38:52 +0100 from: "Folland, Chris" subject: RE: Hi Phil & Chris to: "Phil Jones" , "Jim Salinger" Both There is no current significant crop shortage. The biggest reason for the problem is price of rice and wheat due to the sudden increase in wealth in China and India by 100s millions made much worse by the vast coincident increase in the price of oil that affects everything. That’s happened even quicker. The poor cant afford to eat! Don’t think climate change or regional climate problems have more than a minor extra effect. Chris Prof. Chris Folland Head of Climate Variability and Forecasting Research Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB United Kingdom Email: chris.folland@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44 (0)1392 886646 Fax: (in UK) 0870 900 5050 (International) +44 (0)113 336 1072) Fellow of the Met Office Hon. Professor of School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 14 April 2008 10:30 To: Jim Salinger; Folland, Chris Subject: Re: Hi Phil & Chris Jim, Good to hear from you ! I won't be affected as I've moved onto wine now - as has Chris! Odd that all these crop shortages have hit so quickly. It can't just be biofuels. I know there have been poor harvests in Australia and a few other places. I reckon people are blaming biofuels for a host of other reasons. The Daily Star is pretty low in the run of UK papers. Cheers Phil At 22:00 13/04/2008, Jim Salinger wrote: >Hi Phil & Chris > >This comes into the light relief category - the story ran globally. >However I presume the Daily Star is not one of your very prominent >print publications. I did have 2 BBC interviews > >And as they say > >Cheers! > >Jim > > > >http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/view/34455/We-re-running-short-of-beer > >WE'RE RUNNING SHORT OF BEER > > > >ABOVE: Beer >9th April 2008 >By TOM SAVAGE >Your Shout >Britain could run out of beer due to global warming, experts said >yesterday. >Rising temperatures could spark a worldwide booze crisis, leaving pubs >and off licences dry. > >Experts say barley crops could fail in the heat, meaning a shortage of >one of the key ingredients of beer. > >Climate scientist Jim Salinger warned: âIt will mean eitither there >will be pubs without beer or the cost of beer will go up. > >This would mean hotter summers, but no chance to enjoy a cooling ale. > > >Mr Salinger said the crisis could be averted if heat-resistant strains >of malting barley could be developed. > >He told New Zealandâs Institute of Brewing and Distilling convenvention: >âIt will provide a lot of challenges.” > >Mr Salinger warned that Aussies and Kiwis were most likely to feel the >pinch, but the whole worldâ℄s beer supply was at risk - and the crisis >could hit within 30 years. > >But Mark Hastings, of the British Beer and Pub Association, said >brewers were already suffering barley shortages, which was pushing the >price of a pint up. > >He said: âItâs already hapdy happening and will get worse. Land that was >used for crops is being given over to biofuels, so barley prices are >up.❠> >His association warned last month the £4 pint was on its way to parts >of the UK. And global warming is likely to push prices up even higher. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------