date: Thu, 29 Nov 2007 15:30:43 -0000 from: "John Davies" subject: FW: UN Secretary General's Reference to Slide Out Risks of Ice to: Dear Dr Phil Jones, I think you may wish to see this. I doubt whether the Arctic will be ice free in late summer by 2009 but the immediacy suggested in this paper is something which should be examined. . Scroll down to comment No.797257 dated 22/11/ 2007 . All the Best, John B Davies personal. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ From: owner-climate_change@foe.co.uk [mailto:owner-climate_change@foe.co.uk] On Behalf Of John Davies Sent: 29 November 2007 14:40 To: climate_change@foe.co.uk Cc: Fiona Davis Subject: FW: UN Secretary General's Reference to Slide Out Risks of Ice Sheets Hello Campaigners, I think there is a lot of new information on Global warming in the north polar regions in this document. Very Urgent. Scroll down to comment No.797257 dated 22/11/ 2007 All the Best, John B Davies personal. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ From: Albert Kallio [mailto:albert_kallio@hotmail.com] Sent: 28 November 2007 21:24 To: John Davies Subject: FW: UN Secretary General's Reference to Slide Out Risks of Ice Sheets Dear John, If you did not receive FIPC view on importance on the Arctic, please find here our statement. Many thanks for you letter and MS Word Article. I found a few spelling and lay out problems, so have enclosed revised layout of your letter and article. You mentioned in MS Word doc Smith_decadal_science2007.pdf and Smith_decadal_SOM.pdf files, and possibility of forwarding copies of these two files as attachment. Kind regards, Albert ___________________________________________________________________________________________ From: albert_kallio@hotmail.com To: jar@email.unc.edu Subject: UN Secretary General's Reference to Slide Out Risks of Ice Sheets Date: Tue, 27 Nov 2007 21:00:16 +0000 Dear Jose, Please find enclosed: 1. The UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon's statement. He was persuaded to issue this strong statement by the Chilean glaciologists who expressed their gut feeling that the Larsen B disease was to spread to Ronne and Ross and ice on land as wel. This backs Al Gore's hypothesis of sudden sea surges in 'An Inconvenient Truth' posing a massive risks to modern society. 2. The Guardian conducted a poll with Royal Geographical Society and The EarthWatch of which global ecosystem is least disposable. I enclose FIPC point why (due to a higher degree of teleconnectivity) the preservation of the polar regions is far more important than any of the other ecosystems, even more important than the tropical rainforests. Unfortunately, the lack of understanding of geophysics shows here distinctly as only 14% thinks the polar regions are worth saving. FIPC responded to this devastaing poll pointing a high degree of teleconnectivity in the Arctic. FIPC think the ball of positive feedbacks will start rolling just from the polar regions: not the vice versa! As we were such an underdog in the debate as 86% thinking other ecosystems are more important, we put out our nearly full arsenal of argument both published and unpublished, which all can however be further checked out. See also the link to The Wall Street Journal in the text. 3. I also enclose a report on UN in The Guardian as the athmospheric carrying capacity of CO2 will be used up in the next 7-8 years time after which the positive feedbacks, releases of gas from melting permafrost and gas fields ect oceans could overtake human emissions (after which a sustainded runaway global warming is a possibility). If someone accuses for alarmism, it is useful now to ask them to go to the UN Secretary General who accepted the tentative evidence by the Chilean glaciologists as sufficient to suspect that a major danger lies within wet ice! I trust the above articles will be very interesting as they contain such strong statements and new material as well. I hope your works are in good progress. Did you have time to contact Antoon Koojpers at the Danish Polar Centre who also has observed some events that are also suggestive of sudden major ice discharges to oceans. Kind regards, Veli Albert Kallio ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Please find enclosed the statement by the UN Secretary General: 18 November 2007 "If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet broke up, sea levels could rise by six meters. It may not happen for 100 years - or it could happen in 10. We simply do not know. But when it happens, it could occur quickly, almost overnight. It sounds like the script of a disaster movie. But this is science, not science fiction." Ban Ki Moon Secretary General of the United Nations, King George Island, Antarctica. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 2. VeliAlbertKallio Comment No. [1]797257 [2]November 22 11:28 Dear Sirs, I do agree that all ecosystems require protection; however, there are ecosystems with a higher degree of teleconnectivity than some of the others. I would see the mountain eco and geological systems least connected. The Round North Pole Sea Ice Cap was reduced in summer 2007 to an Arctic Sea Ice Crescent that resided behind north of Canada, Greenland and Svalbard Islands. The loss of the round polar ice cap that always used to be centred on the north pole was lost due to increased intensity of ocean waves causing the erosion of the sea ice, mixing of cold surface water with the warm water from the deep, and hugely increased sea ice migration on the newly opened ocean. The cold, dense and dry air pillow that hovered above the snow and ice covered ocean expanded due to the immense Arctic Ocean snow cover turning into warm sea water that made the ultra dry polar air to warm up, and push the margins of the Artic air mass and streams above Greenland and England. FIPC predicted occurrence of the 2007 sea ice loss (about 4 million square km) back in 2005 against the projections of the Arctic Council who projected such a degree of sea ice loss only sometime after year 2040. But their concept was based on faulty idea that all sea ice loss would be due to increasing air temperature and the albedo change as snow covered sea turns into dark water absorbing much more of sun's heat. FIPC projections of correct degree of sea ice loss was why we were presenting at a summit convened by HE Kofi Annan, HE Jose Barroso and HAH Bartholomev I in September on the stability and the Arctic teleconnections. FIPC expect the sea ice cover to break up in 2008 as the morphology of lunar crescent shaped multiyear sea ice is far more volatile to the forces of sea than the rounded polar ice cap on the North Pole which always was until now. The forces of ocean will start tearing up next year the remains of the crescent shaped multiyear (thick) sea ice as soon as the seasonal sea ice has melted away. There could be delaying negative feedbacks such as much larger precipitation on and around the Arctic Ocean which could keep climate colder and delay the onset of summer season, making the melt season shorter and therefore less intense. But such a hope of negative feedback may be too wishful. The Arctic Ocean's sea ice scattering would be complete by 2009 if events of 2007 are repeated. The sea ice travelling to-and-fro between warm and cold parts of ocean are very destructive as the thermal inertia transfer into migratory sea ice is huge in comparison to relatively stationary sea ice. The siege of Greenland by an open dark oceans on all its sides in combination with the 24 hour arctic sunshine season will mean massive flash floods and thunderstorms in Greenland (similar to July's in England) that were already experienced in this year and what was reported to the multimillion pound RSE expedition in the public hearings held in Narsarssuaq, South Greenland in 12.09.2007. The ice-free Arctic Ocean will mean loss of permafrost and these hold huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide, sometime held back from entering the atmosphere only by thin lid of frozen ice or permafrost mud. This is a situation in parts of northern Russia and some gas fields will begin to leak out methane in sudden burst, in addition to the widespread emissions from newly decomposing melted permafrost grounds. These emissions (i.e. methane is 100 times more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide) invariably raise the Arctic as among one of the most teleconnected and volatile parts of the earth system. The loss of the North Pole Sea Ice Cap will also mean more flash floods washing Greenland's fairly sizable ice sheet. In the past most of the Greenland ice sheet melting was Type 1 ice melting where the crevasses and moulins ultimately drain to the ocean removing the water as heat agent from amongst the body of ice. However, recently the melting has advanced further to inland where the sub glacial terrain has slopes with inward ground inclination and the water and heat with it will never escape to the surface once water is fallen into ice. This kind of Type 2 melting in Greenland is accumulative and builds a pillow of water under the ice and loosens the partially permafrost cementing of ice with rocks and levels the rough ups and downs under the ice. As result the weight loading is removed from rocks below ice increasingly against the ice and topographic obstacles in downstream. As a result, large boulders of ice are moving causing ice quakes when the loosened ice moves downhill. The increased discharges of ice via fjord systems increase these. The changes of the Arctic ice mass balance has many more teleconnections by causing promoted earthquakes as the reduced weight of Alaska allows the Pacific tectonic plate to turn easier beneath the west Alaska and the connections to the liquid rocks produce increased volcanism. See the Wall Street Journal article on these: [3]http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB114981650181275742-sOx58NXvfKz2szefZXutgTSbaDI_20 070608.html?mod=rss_free In addition, the changes in Greenland ice mass balance are destructive to the earth systems even at its very basins. Parts of Greenland have lost about 5 metres of ice, this amount to a pressure change of 4,250 kg/m2. It is well known that the Earth's axis responds to the air pressure variations across the Arctic Ocean between north Russia and Canada: when the low and high air pressure systems swap the other way round across the Arctic Ocean, the earth's axis turns 3-6 metres to that direction. Because the land masses are also asymmetrically distributed around the Geographic North Pole (= rotation axis), the snow and rain load on land during various seasons produce varying ground pressure load to which the weight distribution (point of balance change) the axis adjusts known as the Seasonal Wobble (12 month period). In addition there is the Chandler Wobble (14 month period) which results from same due to morphological resonance that is amplified by variable interaction with the faster spinning earth's core and overlying rock layers. In year 2000 the Magnetic North Pole started a sudden movement of 1,0-1,5 kilometres per week. This movement started back in 1850's when it was very tiny migration indeed. The old maps showing the magnetic field lines show no need for any corrections in period 1400-1850. With current rates this would be very noticeable. The 1850's coincide with the onset of glacial retreat worldwide. Even back in 1600's the magnetic field was about 9 times its current strength. So, what is the teleconnection here? As Greenland has changed weight distribution in much larger amounts than the air pressure variations above the island can do, the equilibrium state has changed. The earth's core generates static electricity which starts running along the metallic mineral currents that lie just beneath the lighter non-conductive mineral layers above it. Due to electrons having the same negative charge they move always outwards to the maximum electricity conductive surface known as the Faraday's Cage. This layer is very thin and it carries all the electricity the core is generating. (If it were not for the reduced conductivity drop of the overlying rock layers, the electricity generated by the earth's faster spinning core would raise right up to the surface below our feet.) The non-conductive minerals rubbed into the Faraday's Cage of the Earth's Core is both stopping the electricity passing beneath Greenland and also re-directing it to go elsewhere where electricity conducting layers are still existing at the right altitude to form the cage. The punch hole in the Faraday's Cage beneath Greenland is the cause of the sudden migration of the Magnetic North Pole from the west side of Ellesmere Island to the north side of Greenland and why the compass needle has recently been turning, especially since year 2000 when Greenland's ice sheet increased its ice discharge to ocean nearly 200%. FIPC have reminded that earth's magnetic field is an important part of the earth's protective system creating the Northern Lights as a result of this. Tampering with this system means that millions of tonnes of harmful particulate matter and radiation (solar winds) are currently deflected from hitting the earth surface. The Melville Bugt (the Melville Bay) coastal mountains that already subsided towards the sea during the Last Glacial Maxium (LGM) are currently holding back the growing pressure from the increasingly loose and leaning Greenland Ice Dome (ice height of 3,150 metres). If this were to collapse, there would be the sudden 'almost overnight' sea surges as suggested 18.11.2007 by the United Nations' Secretary General Ban Ki Moon (on advice of the Chilean glaciologists who think the west Antarctic land ice and ice shelves are also showing signs to collapse - following the course occurred in the Larsen B ice shelve). Ref.: International Herald Tribune, p. 6., Sunday 18.11.2007. A 7-metre sea surge would cause coastal flooding and this would make both industry and cars stop immediately as oil refineries and many power stations build on sea side would be flooded. The teleconnection from this is due to global dimming: increase in air temperatures above land as the cooling aerosols from traffic and industry will flush quickly out leaving in the heat capturing CO2 pollution. In the meanwhile, the ocean temperatures would be reduced due to large amount of fragmentary floating ice bergs from the ice sheet that had collapsed to sea. The Greenland ice cooled ocean and hot continental air would produce cloudless skies on across America and Europe, this failing our agriculture and causing massive forest fires and droughts that can destroy our forests here completely. Thus, FIPC iterate that although we would not subscribe that the collapse of Greenland and West Antarctic were the end of the world, the damage underway is very substantial due to the list of above teleconnections in earth system. If you have any queries FIPC are more than happy to forward more details on our research and lobbying activities. Veli Albert Kallio FIPC Co-Ordinator, Fellow of Royal Geographical Society Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans 119 Mount Pleasant Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 9EA, ENGLAND. [4]albert_kallio@hotmail.com ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 3. 1.30pm GMT 10 years to change our ways, warns UN report [5]Mark Tran [6]Guardian Unlimited Tuesday November 27 2007 The world has less than a decade to change course to avoid irreversible ecological catastrophe, the UN warned today. The stark warning from the [7]UN's Human Development report came just ahead of next month's climate summit in Bali, Indonesia, to negotiate a successor to the Kyoto protocol. In a repeat of previous warnings from scientific panels, the 400-page report said that simply ignoring climate change would lead to unprecedented reversal in human development in our lifetime, and acute risks for our children and their grandchildren. The report, commissioned by the UN Development Programme, said climate change would hit the least-developed countries the hardest. 'The poorest countries and most vulnerable citizens will suffer the earliest and most damaging setbacks, even though they have contributed least to the problem,' the report says. 'Looking to the future, no country - however wealthy or powerful - will be immune to the impact of global warming.' The panel says the greatest financial responsibility lies with the US and the other well-developed countries most responsible for the rising levels of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere, mainly from the use of coal, oil and other fossil fuels. As the world's richest countries bear the greatest responsibility, the UN Development Programme called on them to bear the largest burden in cutting emissions and in providing financial aid to the poor. Developed countries, the UN said, should cut emissions by at least 30% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050. Developing nations should cut emissions by 20% by the year 2050. The UN said the world must spend 1.6% of global economic output each year until 2030 to stabilise carbon levels and to limit a rise in global temperature to 2C to avoid the catastrophic impact of climate change. Without the money, the panel said, a warmer world 'could stall and then reverse human development' in the countries where 2.6 billion people live on $2 (96p) a day or less. The consequences include women and young girls having to walk further to collect water in the Horn of Africa, people erecting bamboo flood shelters on stilts in the Ganges delta, and others planting mangroves to protect themselves against storm surges in the Mekong delta. 'The world lacks neither the financial resources nor the technological capabilities to act,' the UN report said. 'What is missing is a sense of urgency, human solidarity and collective interest.' ------------------ The above highlighting the urgency of the situation. Kind regards, Veli Albert Kallio, FIPC Co-ordinator ********************************************************************* Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans Veli Albert Kallio, Esq., FRGS, BBAM, BAR Telephone (Int.): + 44 - 7794 - 981 238 E-mail: albert_kallio@hotmail.com Address: 119 Mount Pleasant Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 9EA ENGLAND ********************************************************************* FIPC campaigns for both sea and land ice conservation across the entire Northern Cryosphere. It is not involved in the Antarctic or the Southern Cryospheric research or environmental campaigning. Its purpose is to advocate temperature, sea level and magnetic field stability by limiting CO2 emissions. FIPC lobbies for better shipping practises and against the practise of sea ice demolition for the purposes of microclimatic reconditioning which fastens the overall loss of the Arctic Ocean's sea ice. On land FIPC campaign for the conservation of the Faraday's Cage beneath Greenland to keep the strength and traditional location of the Magnetic North Pole unchanged by the climatic control, lobbies for the studies of glacial earthquake monitoring on Melville Bugt coastal depression section, and prepares for submersible expeditions to study the ancient towns that became flooded when the last ice age ended if the settlements were abandoned gradually or suddenly. FIPC plan research to resolve whether the last ice age ended gradually by ice melting, or catastrophic ice sheet slides. No person involved with FIPC will receive money as a remuneration all the work is on voluntary basis. ********************************************************************* The Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign has been nominated to the international Nanak Prize by: Professor Sir Ghillean Prance, science director of the Eden project Cornwall and previously the director Royal Botanical Gardens at Kew, London; Dr. Steve Kadivar, a former lecturer at Stanford University environmental engineering and University of California, Berkeley, this nomination endorsed by Lord Swift of Windsor; Joel Yoyo, PhD expert in ancient linguistics and lexicography of African and Middle Eastern languages; Professor Gary Chartier of La Sierra University, School of Law, and Matti Lappalainen, Finnish Councillor of State on Environment, limnologist. ############################################################# The information contained herein is confidential and is intended only for the addressee. Any alteration, distribution, copying or re-use of this information is not permitted without the express consent of the sender. If you received this communication in error, please contact Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans (FIPC) 44 7794 981238 and destroy this message. ############################################################# This message has been scanned by McAfee Anti-Virus for Microsoft Hotmail. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Are you the Quizmaster? [8]Play BrainBattle with a friend now! ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Do you know a place like the back of your hand? Share local knowledge with [9]BackOfMyHand.com ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Are you the Quizmaster? [10]Play BrainBattle with a friend now! -- [11]Support Friends of the Earth Friends of the Earth Limited - Company No 1012357 Friends of the Earth Trust - Company No 1533942 Registered Charity No 281681 Registered Office - 26 - 28 Underwood Street, London. N1 7JQ Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\GLOBAL_TEMPERATURE_UP_UNTIL_2014[1].doc" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\GLOBAL_TEMPERATURE_UP_UNTIL_2014__JOHN_B_DAVIES[1].doc"