date: Wed, 10 May 2006 07:24:43 -0600 (MDT) from: wigley@ucar.edu subject: [Fwd: CCNet: "COLLAPSE TO NEAR ZERO?" EUROPE'S CARBON CREDITS MAY to: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Keith, See the last item. Why don't you just give these people the raw data? Are you hiding something -- your apparent refusal to be forthcoming sure makes it look as though you are. Tom. ========== ---------------------------- Original Message ---------------------------- Subject: CCNet: "COLLAPSE TO NEAR ZERO?" EUROPE'S CARBON CREDITS MAY SOON BECOME WORTHLESS From: "Peiser, Benny" Date: Wed, May 10, 2006 4:50 am To: "cambridge-conference" -------------------------------------------------------------------------- CCNet 73/06 - 10 May 2006 "COLLAPSE TO NEAR ZERO?" EUROPE'S CARBON CREDITS MAY SOON BECOME WORTHLESS ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Europe next week will likely reveal a key flaw in its flagship strategy to tackle climate change -- a net surplus of pollution permits, says Louis Redshaw, Head of Environmental Markets at Barclays Capital. The price of permits -- or carbon credits -- could then fall as low as 5 euros, having already collapsed to 12 euros on Monday from a peak of 31 euros three weeks ago, Redshaw said. Such a price fall would almost certainly trigger further drops in power prices across Europe. Ultimately the balance of emissions and permits would only become clear at the end of the first phase of the EU trading scheme in 2007, and only then could the price collapse to near zero, he said. --Gerard Wynn, Reuters, 9 May 2006 Australia has not signed onto the Kyoto accord on greenhouse-gas emissions, and Harper's environment minister, Rona Ambrose, has made it clear that this government will do nothing much to honour the old Liberal signature on that deal. Still, Harper and Ambrose have promised detailed environmental policies by fall, including plans for controlling - nobody has said reducing - greenhouse-gas emissions. So Howard's visit could be an opportunity for Canada to announce plans for adherence to the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, a sort of club for Kyoto skeptics. --The Montreal Gazette, 10 May 2006 New research calls into question the linkage between major Atlantic hurricanes and global warming. That is one of the conclusions from a University of Virginia study to appear in the May 10, 2006 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters. Unlike prior studies, the U.Va. climatologists specifically examined water temperatures along the path of each storm, providing a more precise picture of the tropical environment involved in each hurricane's development. They found that increasing water temperatures can account for only about half of the increase in strong hurricanes over the past 25 years; therefore the remaining storminess increase must be related to other factors. --AScribe Newswire, 9 May 2006 (1) "COLLAPSE TO NEAR ZERO?" EUROPE'S CARBON CREDITS MAY SOON BECOME WORTHLESS Gerard Wynn, Reuters, 9 May 2006 (2) MEDIA SPECULATION: CANADA TO JOIN ASIA-PACIFIC CLIMATE PACT? The Montreal Gazette, 10 May 2006 (3) NEW STUDY QUESTIONS LINKAGE BETWEEN MAJOR HURRICANES AND GLOBAL WARMING AScribe Newswire, 9 May 2006 (4) SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN Patrick J. Michaels et al. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 10 May 2006 (5) RIVER DISCHARGE TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN: 1964-2000 CO2 Science Magazine, 10 May 2006 (6) A PAN-ARCTIC EVALUATION OF CHANGES IN RIVER DISCHARGE, 1964-2000 James W. McClelland et al., GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, 2006 (7) GLOBAL WARMING AND EL NINOS CO2 Science Magazine, 10 May 2006 (8) RARE-EVENT EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS (REPP) Andy Smith (9) ASTEROIDS & HYDROGEN-BORON FUSION Mark Bahner (10) AND FINALLY: SCIENCE SHENANGIGANS GO ON Steve McIntyre, 9 May 2006 =========== (1) "COLLAPSE TO NEAR ZERO?" EUROPE'S CARBON CREDITS MAY SOON BECOME WORTHLESS Reuters, 9 May 2006 http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/36274/story.htm By Gerard Wynn LONDON - Europe next week will likely reveal a key flaw in its flagship strategy to tackle climate change -- a net surplus of pollution permits, says Louis Redshaw, Head of Environmental Markets at Barclays Capital. The price of permits -- or carbon credits -- could then fall as low as 5 euros, having already collapsed to 12 euros on Monday from a peak of 31 euros three weeks ago, Redshaw said. Such a price fall would almost certainly trigger further drops in power prices across Europe. The European Union last year handed its heavy industry the tradeable credits at the launch of its carbon market to cut emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2). Crucially for the market to work there had to be fewer credits than actual emissions, to drive pollution cuts, but this is now looking unlikely. "Based on the trend we're seeing we'd expect the whole market to be long in year 1," Redshaw said. A UBS report last Friday also saw the market long on credits. Already a clutch of EU countries have reported their 2005 carbon emissions, and all but Spain revealed emissions below their permit quota, triggering the recent price collapse. The European Commission will publish data on remaining countries on May 15. Redshaw saw a price fall to as low as 5 euros a possibility, but did not expect a complete collapse yet because of continuing uncertainty about future energy and therefore carbon demand. At the end of every financial year companies included in the scheme, such as power producers, have to balance their books, having one carbon credit for every tonne of emissions. Some are happy to buy at present prices, despite the bearish news of credit surpluses and a possible price collapse, just in case for example a cold winter increases demand for power and pushes carbon credit prices back up. "Buying carbon now is a hedging strategy. (And) There's still plenty of value -- you can make margins on producing electricity (at a 12 euro carbon price)," said Redshaw. HEDGE Ultimately the balance of emissions and permits would only become clear at the end of the first phase of the EU trading scheme in 2007, and only then could the price collapse to near zero, he said. The market is currently awaiting news from big economies such as Germany, Britain and Italy to discover the overall EU carbon market position for 2005, whether or not it is in surplus. But according to Redshaw the near to medium-term prospects for carbon credit prices depended on how long it took power firms to hedge themselves fully. "When they stop buying there could be more weakness," he said. Copyright 2006, Reuters ============ (2) MEDIA SPECULATION: CANADA TO JOIN ASIA-PACIFIC CLIMATE PACT? The Montreal Gazette, 10 May 2006 http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/editorial/story.html?id=048162c0-c0e1-49f8-a2cb-860d9e8bcbeb A left-centre political party, in office for 13 long years, had grown tired and unfocused and was ethically challenged. So it was no surprise when a resurgent conservative party won the national election. And so it was, in 1996, that John Howard became prime minister of Australia. He's still in the job today, at 66, and next week he will visit Canada. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has invited the Australian leader to address a joint session of Parliament, a rare honour. This visit might be an opportunity for Canadians to learn some more about the foreign policy of the Harper government. We hope so, because except on Afghanistan and relations with the United States, we still know little about the new government's view of our place in the world. In Howard, our prime minister has a potential mentor, not to say a soul mate. The Australian leader is charisma-free, holds firmly to free-market ideas and has abundant confidence in his own intellectual ability. Sound familiar? During last winter's election campaign, a Toronto newspaper reported that Brian Loughnane, a senior official of Howard's Liberal Party, had been advising Harper's Conservatives. Howard has won four straight elections - and, riding high in the polls, is expected to stick around for a fifth - on the basis of support from what he calls "mainstream Australians" in the "mortgage belt" - the Antipodean version of the suburban soccer moms (and dads) who voted for Harper. Australia has not signed onto the Kyoto accord on greenhouse-gas emissions, and Harper's environment minister, Rona Ambrose, has made it clear that this government will do nothing much to honour the old Liberal signature on that deal. Still, Harper and Ambrose have promised detailed environmental policies by fall, including plans for controlling - nobody has said reducing - greenhouse-gas emissions. So Howard's visit could be an opportunity for Canada to announce plans for adherence to the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, a sort of club for Kyoto skeptics. Members are Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and the United States. The partnership emphasizes commercially viable technological solutions, an approach critics denounce as insufficiently rigorous. That's probably correct - governments will have to lead if the world has any hope of slowing the pace of climate change. But look again at that membership list: These are countries that produce serious quantities of greenhouse gases as well as other pollutants. Howard is said to be a convert to belief in the urgency of climate-change action; perhaps Harper, too, will be convinced by the evidence. In any case, Canadians are waiting to learn more about the Harper government's priorities and methods in dealing with the rest of the world, and not least Asia, where so much seems to be happening these days. Prime Minister Howard's visit should serve to remind Harper that despite his famous focus on his five domestic priorities, there's a big complicated world out there. © The Gazette (Montreal) 2006 ============ (3) NEW STUDY QUESTIONS LINKAGE BETWEEN MAJOR HURRICANES AND GLOBAL WARMING AScribe Newswire, 9 May 2006 http://newswire.ascribe.org/cgi-bin/behold.pl?ascribeid=20060509.142304&time=14%2053%20PDT&year=2006&public=0 CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va., May 9 (AScribe Newswire) -- New research calls into question the linkage between major Atlantic hurricanes and global warming. That is one of the conclusions from a University of Virginia study to appear in the May 10, 2006 issue of the journal Geophysical Research Letters. In recent years, a large number of severe Atlantic hurricanes have fueled a debate as to whether global warming is responsible. Because high sea-surface temperatures fuel tropical cyclones, this linkage seems logical. In fact, within the past year, several hurricane researchers have correlated basin-wide warming trends with increasing hurricane severity and have implicated a greenhouse-warming cause. But unlike these prior studies, the U.Va. climatologists specifically examined water temperatures along the path of each storm, providing a more precise picture of the tropical environment involved in each hurricane's development. They found that increasing water temperatures can account for only about half of the increase in strong hurricanes over the past 25 years; therefore the remaining storminess increase must be related to other factors. "It is too simplistic to only implicate sea surface temperatures in the dramatic increase in the number of major hurricanes," said lead author Patrick Michaels, U.Va. professor of environmental sciences and director of the Virginia Climatology Office. For a storm to reach the status of a major hurricane, a very specific set of atmospheric conditions must be met within the region of the storm's development, and only one of these factors is sufficiently high sea-surface temperatures. The authors found that the ultimate strength of a hurricane is not directly linked to the underlying water temperatures. Instead, they found that a temperature threshold, 89 degrees Fahrenheit, must be crossed before a weak tropical cyclone has the potential to become a monster hurricane. Once the threshold is crossed, water temperature is no longer an important factor. "At that point, other factors take over, such as the vertical wind profile, and atmospheric temperature and moisture gradients," Michaels said. While there has been extensive recent discussion about whether or not human-induced global warming is currently playing a role in the increased frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes, Michaels downplays this impact, at least for the current climate. "The projected impacts of global warming on Atlantic hurricanes are minor compared with the major changes that we have observed over the past couple of years," Michaels said. He points instead to naturally varying components of the tropical environment as being the primary reason for the recent enhanced activity. "Some aspects of the tropical environment have evolved much differently than they were expected to under the assumption that only increasing greenhouse gases were involved. This leads me to believe that natural oscillations have also been responsible for what we have seen," Michaels said. But what if sea-surface temperatures continue to rise into the future, if the world continues to warm from an enhancing greenhouse effect? "In the future we may expect to see more major hurricanes," Michaels said, "but we don't expect the ones that do form to be any stronger than the ones that we have seen in the past." Michaels' co-authors are Robert E. Davis, associate professor of environmental sciences and Paul C. Knappenberger, former U.Va. graduate student in environmental sciences. Reference: Michaels, P. J., P. C. Knappenberger, and R. E. Davis, 2006. Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2006GL025757. CONTACTS: Dr. Patrick Michaels, 434-825-6981, pjm8x@virginia.edu Fariss Samarrai, U.Va. News, 434-924-3778, samarrai@virginia.edu =========== (4) SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L09708, doi:10.1029/2006GL025757, 2006 http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2006/2006GL025757.shtml Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin Patrick J. Michaels Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA Cato Institute, Washington, D. C., USA Paul C. Knappenberger New Hope Environmental Services, Inc., Charlottesville, Virginia, USA Robert E. Davis Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA Abstract Whereas there is a significant relationship between overall sea-surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclone intensity, the relationship is much less clear in the upper range of SST normally associated with these storms. There, we find a step-like, rather than a continuous, influence of SST on cyclone strength, suggesting that there exists a SST threshold that must be exceeded before tropical cyclones develop into major hurricanes. Further, we show that the SST influence varies markedly over time, thereby indicating that other aspects of the tropical environment are also critically important for tropical cyclone intensification. These findings highlight the complex nature of hurricane development and weaken the notion of a simple cause-and-effect relationship between rising SST and stronger Atlantic hurricanes. Received 12 January 2006; accepted 29 March 2006; published 10 May 2006. ============ (5) RIVER DISCHARGE TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN: 1964-2000 CO2 Science Magazine, 10 May 2006 http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/articles/V9/N19/C1.jsp Reference McClelland, J.W., Dery, S.J., Peterson, B.J., Holmes, R.M. and Wood, E.F. 2006. A pan-arctic evaluation of changes in river discharge during the latter half of the 20th century. Geophysical Research Letters 33: 10.1029/2006GL025753. Background The authors note that "increasing freshwater inputs may slow North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation, a major driver of [the] Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC)," and that "a slowing or cessation of [the] MOC in response to global warming could lead to relative cooling in some regions and amplified warming in others," perhaps the most significant of which phenomena is a postulated failure of the Gulf Stream that is often claimed to have the potential to dramatically cool much of Europe. The question they thus consider within the context of their research is: "How may changes in arctic and subarctic river discharge affect [the Atlantic] MOC?" What was done In a study designed to provide some perspective on the issue, McClelland et al. analyzed discharge records of 16 Eurasian and 56 North American rivers over the period 1964-2000. Of these rivers, all Eurasian ones and 14 of the North American ones flow directly into the Arctic Ocean, while the other 42 North American rivers flow into the Hudson, James and Ungava Bays (HJUBs). What was learned The five researchers determined that "discharge to the Arctic Ocean increased by 5.6 km3/yr/yr during 1964-2000, the net result of a large increase from Eurasia moderated by a small decrease from North America," but that "discharge to Hudson/James/Ungava Bays decreased by 2.5 km3/yr/yr during 1964-2000." What it means McClelland et al. say they "expect decreasing river discharge to Hudson, James, and Ungava Bays and increasing river discharge to the Arctic Ocean to have opposing effects on NADW formation," which leads us to ask: How significant is the net result for the maintenance of the Atlantic MOC? The researchers go on to say that "the observed changes in river discharge over 1964-2000 amount to an increase of about 0.007 Sv to the Arctic Ocean and a decrease of about 0.003 Sv to HJUBs by the end of the record," and that "these values are relatively small compared to the ~0.1 Sv [increase] that lead[s] to abrupt reductions in NADW formation in a variety of models (Clark et al., 2002; Rahmstorf, 2002)." McClelland et al. are right on the mark in this assessment. In fact, the net increase in freshwater discharge to the Arctic Ocean that is revealed by their analysis to have occurred between 1964 and 2000 amounts to only about 4% of the "tipping point" value that is predicted by some climate models to lead to an abrupt Atlantic MOC reduction. Hence, there is little cause for alarm in their findings. In addition, it has recently been noted by Wunsch that the models that predict decreases in, or even a cessation of, NADW formation and the Atlantic MOC are still too crude to be given much credence. In fact, he reports that depending on how the mixing coefficients are modified, fresh water additions can actually increase the North Atlantic mass circulation (Nilsson et al., 2003). In conclusion, the totality of these several observations suggests that all of the hype surrounding the subject of a Gulf Stream shutdown due to a warming-induced increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean is without a sound basis in either observation or theory.