date: Fri Jan 30 08:49:00 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: Invitationt to talk in Oxford to: "Mark New" Mark, Some snow has been causing problems - as usual ! 1. Thanks for the directions and arranging the parking spot. 2. Still the old O/H projection ! 3. Fine re time, getting away at 2pm is fine for me. I'll try and get there as soon as I can. 4. OK, more on comps with models - got a few O/Hs from the long paper with Mike Mann which I'll be sending back to Rev. Geophys. later next week. Here's the abstract from that paper. Whilst I won't get to all of it, you can use it. Cheers Phil We review evidence for climate change over the past several millennia from instrumental and high-resolution climate 'proxy' data sources, and climate modelling studies. We focus on changes over the past one-to-two millennia. We assess reconstructions and modelling studies analyzing a number of different climate fields, including atmospheric circulation diagnostics, precipitation and drought. We devote particular attention to proxy-based reconstructions of temperature patterns in past centuries, which place recent large-scale warming in an appropriate longer-term context. Our assessment affirms the conclusion that late-20th century warmth is unprecedented at hemispheric, and likely global scales. There is more tentative evidence that particular modes of climate variability, such as the El Niņo/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation may have exhibited late-20th century behaviour that is anomalous in a long-term context. Regional conclusions, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and parts of the tropics where high-resolution proxy data are sparse, are more circumspect. The dramatic differences between regional and hemispheric/global past trends, and the distinction between changes in surface temperature and precipitation/drought fields, underscores the limited utility in the use of terms such as the "Little Ice Age" and "Medieval Warm Period" for describing past climate epochs during the last millennium. Comparison of empirical evidence with proxy-based reconstructions demonstrates that natural factors appear to explain relatively well the major surface temperature changes of the past millennium through the 19th century (including hemispheric means and some spatial patterns). Only anthropogenic forcing of climate, however, can explain the recent anomalous warming in the late-20th century. PS Email/call on Monday if any problems. I'll get O/Hs in order over the weekend. At 10:18 28/01/2004 +0200, you wrote: Hi Phil, Trying again, without hitting the send button by mistake! Still in SA, but leaving this weekend. 1. I will book a parking slot for you at the department, so you can drive straight in here, and not use the P&R. When coming from MK, you will come in from the North, finally entering Oxford itself along Banbury Road. Turn left off Banbury Rd into Parks Road, then left into South Parks Rd, then 1st right into Mansfield Road. Geography is on left some 300m down Mansfield Road. Park temporarily outside and ask the receptinsist for the parkingpermit and where to park. A map showing the department is available from [1]http://www.ox.ac.uk/aboutoxford/maps/depts.shtml 2. What display equipment will you need? We can do powerpoint, slide projectors, and overheads, or any combination thereof. 3. The talk should finish at 1.00pm. We can then have a quick lunch. I need to leave you at 2.00pm, as I have a practical class that I cannot miss - first one of term, so there are bound to be teething problems. If you can get in early we can talk about ENSEMBLES. Where is Tim moving to? 4. Talk content. More on implications (what they say, comparison to instrumental record, how they compare with model simulations), but a brief intro on methods would be useful (description of the proxies, plus how they are combined to produce estimates of temperature, accuracy). Would it be possible to email me a short abstract? All the best, Mark > -----Original Message----- > From: Phil Jones [[2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 27 January 2004 16:47 > To: mark.new@geography.oxford.ac.uk > Subject: RE: Invitationt to talk in Oxford > > > > Mark, > Sent some bullshit to Albert. Tuesday Feb 3 is not far off. I'll be > setting off at the crack > of dawn. Which is the nearest P&R to the side I'll be coming > from (Milton > Keynes)? > Can you point me to a web site? > > Talk will be about the last 1000 years. Do you want more on what the > series say > or more about how they are produced - so a brief discussion of some > proxies? I can do > both - I have a large review on the subject nearly accepted by > Reviews of > Geophysics. > When I say more on what they say I mean comparisons with long GCM > simulations. > > I have to get back home by 7pm, so need to leave about > 2.30-3pm. Will > you have > time to discuss the ENSEMBLES work? Also what we might do here > at UEA now > that Tim Mitchell is leaving? > > Cheers > Phil > > > > > At 11:10 17/11/2003 +0000, you wrote: > >Dear Phil, > > > >Thanks - I have booked you for Feb 3. I will be over the WMO meeting, > >and have been amused by the WMO speak coming out of the WMO in some of > >the emails - confirms everything bad I have heard about the place: too > >much bureaucracy and not enough science! > > > >See you next week, > > > >Mark > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: Phil Jones [[3]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > > > Sent: Friday, November 14, 2003 11:54 AM > > > To: mark.new@geography.oxford.ac.uk > > > Subject: Re: Invitationt to talk in Oxford > > > > > > > > > > > > Mark, > > > Feb 3 seems the most likely date. Will you be over for this WMO > > > meeting the week > > > after next? > > > > > > Cheers > > > Phil > > > > > > > > > At 10:35 13/11/2003 +0000, you wrote: > > > >Dear Phil, > > > > > > > >I have the "pleasure" of convening the School of Geography's > > > Research > > > >Seminar series this academic year. Sometime in the summer, > > > I asked you > > > >about this and you said that you may be able to come in the > > > new year, > > > >so I wondered if I could tempt you across here to give a talk next > > > >term. > > > > > > > >Last time you were here you talked about observed cliamte change, so > > > >how about a more paleao perspective this time? > > > > > > > >The talks are on Tuesdays at 12.00, and should last about 45-50 > > > >minutes. > > > > > > > >The following days are currently free: > > > > > > > >20 Jan > > > >27 Jan > > > >03 Feb > > > >10 Feb > > > >17 Feb > > > >24 Feb > > > >02 Mar > > > >09 Mar > > > > > > > >I look forward to hearing from you, > > > > > > > >Mark > > > >_______________________________________ > > > > > > > >Dr Mark New > > > >Climatology Research Group > > > >School of Geography and the Environment > > > >Oxford University > > > >Mansfield Road > > > >Oxford OX1 3TB > > > >[4]http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climatology > > > >_______________________________________ > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > > > University of East Anglia > > > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > > > NR4 7TJ > > > UK > > > -------------------------------------------------------------- > > > -------------- > > > > > > > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > ---------- > > > > --- > Incoming mail is certified Virus Free. > Checked by AVG anti-virus system ([5]http://www.grisoft.com). > Version: 6.0.571 / Virus Database: 361 - Release Date: 26/01/2004 > --- Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free. Checked by AVG anti-virus system ([6]http://www.grisoft.com). Version: 6.0.571 / Virus Database: 361 - Release Date: 26/01/2004 Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------