cc: lisa.horrocks@defra.gsi.gov.uk
date: Wed, 28 Apr 2004 17:13:48 +0100
from: "Jenkins, Geoff" <geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com>
subject: SRES-to-satbilisation climate scenarios for impacts work
to: PARRYML@aol.com, mgrc@ceh.ac.uk, j.palutikof@uea.ac.uk, n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk

   I spoke to some of you about this last week. Below is my email to Dave Warrilow on the idea
   - he sail "good idea!".

    I appreciate the lack of socioeconomic scanrios but maybe something can be done with
   straightline assumptions

   We may also put the data on the LINK site in case anyone else wants to pick it up



   cheers



   geoff





   David

   We are close to finishing some experiments with HadCM3 which use the forcing specified by
   Susan Solomon for 4AR. These are:

   A.  SRES A1B up to 2100 (already run) then out to 2200 with constant 2100 forcing (proxy
   for 750ppm stabilisation)
   B.  Similar experiment starting with SRES B1 (proxy for 750ppm stabilisation)
   C.  As above but starting with A1FI (proxy for about 1050ppm)(not strictly an IPCC
   scenario)

   Jason Lowe et all are writing these up for publication, being the first that have been done
   with the IPCC "SRES-to-stabilisation" scenarios.

   We intend to do the same runs with HadGEM1 but these will not be complete until next year.
   Meanwhile, it occurs to me that the new HadCM3 results would be useful to impacts
   modellers, who may have enough time to look at their implications and submit them to 4AR
   before the shutters come down. The old FTI group could have first refusal. Any problems
   with me seeking to interest them in doing this? I will make it clear that this is my own
   idea not yours, and hence they would have to do it in the margin of existing funding
   streams .

    Geoff