cc: Michael Schlesinger , lempert@rand.org, Daniel.Sarewitz@asu.edu, p.jones@uea.ac.uk, wmw@ucar.edu, jmahlman@ucar.edu, manabe@splash.princeton.edu, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, thomas.lowe@rmit.edu.au, penner@umich.edu, covey1@llnl.gov, wallace@atmos.washington.edu, jholdren@whrc.org, hjacoby@mit.edu, jhansen@giss.nasa.gov, schmidt@giss.nasa.gov, wpatzert@jpl.nasa.gov, mmaccrac@comcast.net, omichael@princeton.edu, hare@pik-potsdam.de date: Fri, 5 Jan 2007 12:14:05 -0800 from: "Stephen H. Schneider" subject: Re: a query to all... to: Andy Revkin Hi all. Let me add to Mike and other's points about political tipping points trumping bio-geophysical ones in the policy world--though not quite how others put it--with one simple question: Why is California the lowest CO2 per capita emitting state and Texas the highest? Not primarily the weather, in my view, but the political climate: value systems about social benefits are so different. In CA social benefits are in deeply in the political equation--even the Governator--and in Texas, protection of entrepreneurial rights seems to dominate. California has myriad building codes and performance standards that have pushed efficiency--and save the state some $5B a year it is estimated. Not Texas by comparison. Classical blue-red state ideological differences, to oversimplify. The issue gets very interesting at a more collective level where the relative power of differeing local ideologies clash and there is a need to work out a deal--under Bush, no meaningful climate deals possible. The social tipping phemenona I mentioned seem to be building: from Katrina, Gore movie, high roller corporate support for policy growing fast and media covering less of the crazies is all contributing to positive movement towards some policy at aggregate level--whether it is more than band-aid remains to be seen, but we are finally moving. Hope this is useful, Cheers, Steve PS I agree that palpable biophysical events in one's backyard help with social tipping--like earlier snowmelt in CA Sierra got the attention of the State Hydrologist and farmers. But why then isn't stronger hurricanes and heat waves in the Gulf doing the same in Texas? Ideology of the beholder, perhaps? Happy New Year All. Stephen H. Schneider Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biological Sciences 371 Serra Mall Gilbert Building Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305-5020 Also: Co-Director, Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Freeman Spogli Institute; and Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Ph: 650 725 9978 F: 650 725 4387 Websites: climatechange.net patientfromhell.org Quoting Andy Revkin : > a very very very poignant and true point, michael. > > i have a song called "a very fine line" that explores all those > facets of life like that. > > At 01:58 PM 1/5/2007, Michael Schlesinger wrote: > >Andy: > > > >Despite the large climatic diversity of the United States, which > >ranges from arctic Alaska to tropical Hawaii, had the 5-to-4 > >'hanging-chad' decision of the U.S. Supreme Court swung the other > >way, the U.S. would have confronted the challenges of human-induced > >climate change these past 6 years, rather than deny and avoid them. > > > > > >And, we would not now be mired in Iraq. > > > > > >Michael > > > > > > > >>this'll be refreshing after our recent back-and-forths. > >> > >>a quick question. > >> > >>given that climate, for most folks, remains local... doing a short > >>piece for weekend assessing thesis that it's harder to build > >>momentum for climate action in USA because we're so darned large > >>and climatically variegated (epic snow in rockies, balmy in > >>northeastern states, etc) compared to, say, Europe (which tends to > >>experience a 'common' climate, to some extent...)... > >> > >>anyone thought about that much before? > >>happy to hear your thoughts (but promptly!) > >>ANDREW C. REVKIN > >>The New York Times / Environment > >>229 West 43d St., NY NY 10036 > >>phone: 212-556-7326 / e-mail: revkin@nytimes.com / fax: 509-357-0965 > >>Arctic book: The North Pole Was Here: > www.nytimes.com/learning/globalwarming > >>Amazon book: The Burning Season www.islandpress.org/burning > >>Acoustic-roots band: www.myspace.com/unclewade > > > > > >ANDREW C. REVKIN > >The New York Times / Environment > >229 West 43d St., NY NY 10036 > >phone: 212-556-7326 / e-mail: revkin@nytimes.com / fax: 509-357-0965 > >Arctic book: The North Pole Was Here: > www.nytimes.com/learning/globalwarming > >Amazon book: The Burning Season www.islandpress.org/burning > >Acoustic-roots band: www.myspace.com/unclewade >