cc: David Parker , "Gromett, Barry" , "Jones, Phil" date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 18:10:48 +0000 from: Peter Stott subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release to: Myles Allen I don't like comparing a single year anomaly with an overall global warming anomaly - we have tried in the past to stop the press saying things like cooling over the last year has cancelled out half of the global warming over the century or whatever - but we have put an extra sentence in the release making the cooler than expected point. Peter On Mon, 2008-12-15 at 09:27 +0000, Myles Allen wrote: > Hi David, > > OK, so the point is even stronger than I originally thought. We should > definitely point out that the downturn, although large compared to > temperature fluctuations so far this decade, is only one quarter of the > warming in average temperatures that we have experienced since the > 1970s. > > Peter/Barry: are you happy inserting an appropriate sentence in the > press release? > > Myles > -----Original Message----- > From: David Parker [mailto:david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk] > Sent: 12 December 2008 16:31 > To: Myles Allen > Cc: Stott, Peter; Gromett, Barry; Jones, Phil > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release > > Myles > > Yes, they are anomalies from 1961-90. The numbers are on > http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcrut3/diagnostics/global/nh+sh/annual > (left-most column of data) except 2008 which John Kennedy is still > updating. > > David > > On Fri, 2008-12-12 at 15:27 +0000, Myles Allen wrote: > > Thanks very much, David. It's a good thing we checked. > > > > Assuming the figures David has just sent are anomalies from 1961-90, > the > > sentence should read: > > > > Although 2008 was 0.1oC cooler than the average for 2000-07, it was > > still 0.3oC warmer than the average for 1961-90. > > > > Regards, > > > > Myles > > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: David Parker [mailto:david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk] > > Sent: 12 December 2008 14:37 > > To: Myles Allen > > Cc: Stott, Peter; Gromett, Barry; Jones, Phil > > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release > > > > Myles > > > > Here are the numbers with 2008 updated through November. The bars on > the > > ranking-diagram indicate the 95% confidence limits associated with > each > > year. > > > > Regards > > > > David > > > > > > 1990 0.248 > > 1991 0.197 > > 1992 0.055 > > 1993 0.102 > > 1994 0.163 > > 1995 0.276 > > 1996 0.123 > > 1997 0.355 > > 1998 0.515 > > 1999 0.262 > > 2000 0.238 > > 2001 0.400 > > 2002 0.455 > > 2003 0.457 > > 2004 0.432 > > 2005 0.479 > > 2006 0.422 > > 2007 0.403 > > 2008 0.313 > > > > > > > > On Fri, 2008-12-12 at 13:30 +0000, Myles Allen wrote: > > > My numbers use HadCRUT3vgl, expressed as anomalies about 1961-90, > with > > > a 2008 figure of 0.296 above the 1961-90 mean. If this is correct, > > > then they should be OK at least to the 2 sig figs we quote. Of > course, > > > it would be good to double-check. > > > > > > > > > > > > Myles > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > > > > > > From: Stott, Peter [mailto:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk] > > > Sent: 12 December 2008 13:14 > > > To: Myles Allen; Gromett, Barry; Phil Jones > > > Cc: Parker, David > > > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > I'm in a meeting all day and can't usefully comment right now. > > > > > > David could supply numbers perhaps. ... > > > > > > > > > > > > Peter > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > Dr. Peter Stott > > > Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution > > > Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter. EX1 3PB, UK > > > Tel +44(0)1392 886646 Fax +44(0)1392885681 > > > Email: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk > > > http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > > > > > > From: Myles Allen [mailto:allen@atm.ox.ac.uk] > > > Sent: 12 December 2008 12:30 > > > To: Gromett, Barry; Phil Jones; Stott, Peter > > > Subject: RE: 2008 global temp news release > > > > > > Hi All, > > > > > > > > > > > > I think we could be accused of "spinning" the numbers if we don't > > > highlight the fact that 2008 was cool relative to the temperatures > we > > > would expect given current climate drivers. I would be happy to > > > augment my quote to say: "This was a cool year relative to the > > > temperatures we have come to expect with global warming, but not > > > surprisingly so: we would have predicted around a 1-in-10 chance of > a > > > year this cold given the current state of the climate. But it would > > > have been considered a warm year even as recently as the 1970s and > > > 1980s, and a scorcher in Victorian times." > > > > > > > > > > > > I also think it would be good to put this right up front, for > example > > > by adding a sentence at the end of the first paragraph saying > > > "Although this is 0.15oC cooler than the average for 2000-07, it is > > > still 0.3oC warmer than the average for 1961-90" (Peter, please > verify > > > numbers). I think it is important information that the downward > > > fluctuation (which many people will want to draw attention to) is > only > > > one third of the warming we have experienced since the 70s. I also > > > think saying 2008 was "still one of the 10 warmest years on record" > is > > > open to criticism. It was no. 10, so we should say so, or the likes > of > > > Steve McKintyre will start saying "Next thing, they'll be saying > > > `still one of the 16 warmest years on record...' and so on. > > > > > > > > > > > > Can you remind me what determines the length of the bars on that > plot? > > > I feel I should know... > > > > > > > > > > > > Myles > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > > > > > > From: Gromett, Barry [mailto:barry.gromett@metoffice.gov.uk] > > > Sent: 11 December 2008 15:08 > > > To: Phil Jones; Myles Allen > > > Subject: 2008 global temp news release > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Phil/Myles > > > > > > The Met Office has led on a news release to be issued next week (16 > > > Dec) on 2008 global mean temperature. Peter Stott passed me quotes > > > from both of you and I wanted to check these with you. Could you > also > > > forward to respective press offices for information? Thanks very > much. > > > > > > Regards > > > > > > Barry > > > > > > <> > > > > > > Barry Gromett > > > Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter Devon EX1 3PB United > Kingdom > > > Tel: +44 (0)1392 886844 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Mobile: 07753 > > > 880380 > > > E-mail: barry.gromett@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > > > > This e-mail is intended for the addressee only. Its contents are > > > provided 'in confidence' and may be covered by contractual, legal or > > > other privilege. If you are not the addressee, you may not use or > > > copy it to any other person. > > > > > > -- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Dr. Peter Stott Head Climate Monitoring and Attribution Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613 Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615 Mobile: 07753880683 E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~