cc: susan.solomon@noaa.gov
date: Fri Feb 8 10:57:06 2008
from: Phil Jones
subject: Re: IPCC Statements
to: "Wayne P. Kraus"
Wayne,
I've given you starting points about the temperature data in a message recently sent.
As for this one, I suggest again that you read the IPCC volume from the web site given
previously. The quotes you have given here are a couple from the many in the SPM
of the WG1 AR4 2007 Report. In the SPM volume each summary bullet refers to a section in
the main
report and/or the Technical Summary where you can find the background
supporting information. For example, the first of your quotes refers to Chs 3,4 and 5.
As I said in the earlier email, IPCC assesses the scientific literature. This
literature
has all appeared in peer-reviewed journals.
I know the IPCC volume is large (996pp) but there is a lot of literature to assess
from a lot of climatic-related fields.
Best Regards
Phil
At 23:42 07/02/2008, you wrote:
Professor Phil Jones:
I have been researching some of your publications. I just ran across this information
which I assume you have reviewed.
The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change in its most recent report in 2007 stated:
'Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of
increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and
ice, and rising global average sea level.'
'Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th
century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations12. This is an advance since the TAR's conclusion that "most of the
observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in
greenhouse gas concentrations". Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects
of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature
extremes and wind patterns'
Please explain how you reconcile the fact that the present temperature increase began at
the end of the last ice age and that the glaciers have been melting for tens of
thousands of years with the claim that this is being driven by 20^th century production
of greenhouse gases? How can present release of greenhouse gases be the cause of climate
change that happened thousands of years ago? This conclusion seems entirely unjustified
if only based on the actual geologic record of earth history.
Have you had a peer review on this conclusion with the geological community? This
conclusion seems completely illogical.
Please do explain your conclusion!
Regards,
Dr. Wayne Kraus, PhD
Littleton, Colorado
___________________________________________________________________________________
From: Wayne P. Kraus [[1]mailto:KrausWP@comcast.net]
Sent: Thursday, February 07, 2008 3:52 PM
To: 'p.jones@uea.ac.uk'
Subject: Release of IPCC Temperature Data
Importance: High
Professor Phil Jones:
A colleague and I have been researching the temperature data which IPCC has used to
suggest the theory of man-made global warming. We have been searching for the raw data
from all historical temperature reporting stations used to construct the IPCC
temperature plot. I guess this has become known as the hockey stick.
We would like to do our own analysis of the raw data. We have lots of questions about
the data you have used. Here are a few of the questions we have.
1. We have found the list of the 1221 USHCN stations from information posted by NCAR. We
have noted that urban island effects began to influence the temperature readings during
the flight to suburbia following WW II. Did you correct USHCN data to account for that
bias?
2. Where can we find the raw data from historical temperature instruments covering the
oceans? The oceans cover more than 70% of the surface of the earth and we expect that
data to show significantly less variability (data scatter) than terrestrial temperature
stations?
3. Where can we find the raw data for all historical temperature data outside the USA
which you used when calculating your global average temperatures for the IPCC plot?
4. I anticipate the distribution of temperature recording instruments in remote and third
world nations is more sparse than in western industrial nations. How did you adjust
your global average volumetrically? What I mean is if there are 20 USHCN instruments
covering the entire state of Kansas and 100 USHCN instruments in the densely populated
area near New York City, the averaging technique has to remove that kind of bias. How
did you do this?
In short, I would be most grateful if you will direct me to an IPCC site where I can
retrieve the entire raw data collection you used to develop your analysis. I would also
like to see a comprehensive report on the techniques you used to compute your global
average temperature used in your plot.
Based on the many comments I have seen regarding your analysis of this recent
temperature history, I believe this data and those conclusions require greater peer
review than they have received. I hope you will cooperate in completing the scientific
process of peer review and verification.
Best regards,
Dr. Wayne Kraus, PhD
Littleton, Colorado
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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