date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 18:41:16 -0400 from: David Rind subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data to: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu For the last 1000-2000 years, there are several subsections that are involved - 6.3.2.1 which is the data for the "forcing and response". Keith and Eyestein have discussed the climate response component (including the spaghetti diagram). I've talked with Judith Lean about producing a figure for the "Forcing" component, which will feature an equivalent "spaghetti" diagram for solar forcing and, if we can get all the data, for volcanic forcing. We could also include trace gas figures, which presumably would be "angel hair pasta" diagrams considering the smaller uncertainties. The other sections concerned with the last (in this case ) 1000 years are: 6.4.3.2 Model Evaluations of the last 1000 years This is a tough section to write, because there's literally no way to conclude anything of substance. If forced with the "best guess" forcings, model responses are on the order of -1 to -1.5°C for the Maunder Minimum. This is considerably greater than the estimated "response", so at face value it would imply the model's are way too sensitive. But...the forcings (solar, volcano) could easily be overestimated, as will be shown in the forcing diagram. Also, the response diagram will show it's uncertain as well. So what can we conclude about model evaluation for this time period except that the forcing and response need to be better constrained before the models can be tested appropriately. 6.5.8 Climate Sensitivity (including the last 1000 years) There's a great deal of overlap between this section and model evaluation; I've put together some paragraphs for both, and they basically say the same thing at least where the model part is concerned. I don't know if we want to go with the repetition, or leave the details in only one of the two sections. David -- /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////// _______________________________________________ Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06