cc: "'Sundararaman, N'" , "'Stone, John'" , "'Kuehr, Helmut'" , "Noguer, Maria" , Dave Griggs , "Moss, Richard" , "Swart, Rob" date: Mon, 12 Oct 1998 15:03:31 +0100 from: "Noguer, Maria" to: "Baede, Fons" , Chris Folland , "Church, John" , "Cubasch, U" , "Ehhalt, Dieter" , "Giorgi, Filippo" , "Hewitson, Bruce" , "Hulme, Mike" , JohnFB Mitchell , Jonathan Gregory , "Karl, Tom" , "Karoly, David" , "McAvaney, Bryant" , "Mearns, Linda" , "Meehl, Jerry" , "Moore, Berrien" , "Penner, Joyce" , "Prather, Michael" , "Prentice, Colin" , "Ramaswamy, V" , "Stocker, Thomas" Dear Co-ordinating Lead Authors, As you are already aware, the list of Lead Authors and Review Editors for the WGI TAR together with the WGI TAR outline were approved by the IPCC WGI Bureau and WGI Plenary (28 ñ 30 September 1998). The WGI TAR outline has been slightly modified by the WGI IPCC Plenary and reflects what the Governments consider to be the critical points. You are not oblige to take up these changes but please consider them seriously. It is very important that the Report adequately addresses the areas of science which the governments feel are important, and you could save yourselves considerable work at the government review stage by ensuring that their priorities are well covered. Some of the additions are things that were already under your detailed outline but the Plenary was only shown the short version. When you have had the chance to consider these changes, please send us your new detailed outline. The Governments also expressed other priorities which did not result in changes in the outline. We will prepare a short note of these and send it to you shortly. Please find within this Email the following files: * The new WGI TAR outline as an attachment and as text at the end of this Email * The list of all CLAs, LAs and REs for WGI TAR as an attachment and as text at the end of this Email Many thanks again for all the work you have put in this first stage and we are looking forward to working with you in the production of the TAR. David Griggs and Maria Noguer IPCC WGI TSU <> <> IPCC Third Assessment Report - Working Group I Draft List of Lead Authors - 12 October 1998 1. The Climate System - an Overview CLA: A Baede (Netherlands) LA: D Schimel (Germany) Y Ding (China) E Ahlonsou (Benin) RE: H Nassarallah (Kuwait) B Bolin (Sweden) S Pollonais (Trinidad & Tobago) 2. Observed Climate Variability and Change CLA: C Folland (UK) T Karl (USA) LA: S Wang (China) J Christy (USA) J Jouzel (France) A Clarke (Canada) J Oerlemans (Netherlands) M Mann (USA) G Gruza (Russian Federation) M Salinger (New Zealand) RE: B Nyenzi (Tanzania) R Hallgren (USA) 3. Carbon Cycle & Atmospheric CO2 CLA: C Prentice (Germany) LA: M Heimann (Germany) G Farquhar (Australia) R Scholes (South Africa) H Kheshgi (Industry/USA) C Le Quéré (France) D Wallace (USA) V Jaramillo (Mexico) M Goulden (USA) M Fasham (UK) RE: A Ramirez (Venezuela) L Pitelka (USA) 4. Atmospheric Chemistry & Radiative Trace Gases CLA: M Prather (USA) D Ehhalt (Germany) LA: I Isaksen (Norway) F Dentener (Netherlands) P Matson (USA) B Holland (Germany) V Kirchhoff (Brazil) M-X Wang (China) E Dlugokencky (USA) D Derwent (UK) P Midgley (Industry/Germany) J Katima (Tanzania) RE: F Joos (Switzerland) M McFarland (Industry/USA) 5. Aerosols and their Indirect Effects on Cloud CLA: J Penner (USA) LA: D Hegg (USA) M Andreae (Germany) G Pitari (Italy) H Annegarn (South Africa) D Murphy (USA) J Nganga (Kenya) L Barrie (Canada) R Leaitch (Canada) J Feichter (Germany) A Jayaraman (India) RE: B Nyenzi (Tanzania) J Prospero (USA) 6. Radiative Forcing of Climate CLA: V Ramaswamy (USA) LA: G-Y Shi (China) T Nakajima (Japan) S Solomon (USA) J Haywood (UK) J Haigh (UK) O Boucher (France) D Hauglustaine (France) G Myhre (Norway) RE: F Joos (Switzerland) J Srinivasan (India) 7. Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks CLA: T Stocker (Switzerland) LA: H Le Treut (France) K Trenberth (USA) V Meleshko (Russian Federation) P Sellers (USA) J Willebrand (Germany) G Clarke (Canada) R Pierrhumbert (USA) T Palmer (UK) (to be confirmed) R Mugara (Zambia) R Lindzen (USA) (to be confirmed) RE: H Nassarallah (Kuwait) P Mason (UK) S Manabe (Japan) 8. Global Climate Models - Evaluation CLA: B McAvaney (Australia) LA: A Weaver (Canada) Z Zhao (China) A Kitoh (Japan) R Wood (UK) S Joussaume (France) W Ogana (Kenya) V Kattsov (Russian Federation) A Pitman (Australia) C Covey (USA) RE: J Stone (Canada) Y-F Qian (China) 9. Global Climate Models - Projections CLA: U Cubash (Germany) G Meehl (USA) LA: R Stouffer (USA) G Boer (Canada) C Senior (UK) K S Yap (Malaysia) A Noda (Japan) S Raper (UK) M Dix (Australia) RE: J Stone (Canada) JW Kim (South Korea) 10 Regional Information - Evaluation and Projections CLA: F Giorgi (Italy) B Hewitson (South Africa) LA: J Christensen (Denmark) M Hulme (UK) H Von Storch (Germany) P Whetton (Australia) R Jones (UK) L Mearns (USA) C Fu (China) RE: J Zillman (Australia) M Mietus (Poland) 11. Changes in Sea Level CLA: J Church (Australia) J Gregory (UK) LA: P Woodworth (UK) K Lambeck (Australia) D-H Qin (China) N Nhuan (Vietnam) P Huybrechts (Belgium) M Kuhn (Austria) RE: A Ramirez (Venezuela) B Douglas (USA) 12. Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes CLA: D Karoly (Australia) J Mitchell (UK) LA: F Zwiers (Canada) V Barros (Argentina) B Santer (USA) (not confirmed, possible later additition) G Hegerl (Germany) RE: J Zillman (Australia) TBD 13. Climate Change Scenario Development CLA: L Mearns (USA) M Hulme (UK) LA: T Carter (Finland) TBD (P Whetton (Australia) to be asked) M Lal (India) R Leemans (Netherlands) RE: J Zillman (Australia) L Mata (Venezuela) 14. Advancing our Understanding CLA: B Moore (USA) LA: TBD TBD TBD RE: A Ramirez (Venezuela) B Bolin (Sweden) ************************************ IPCC Third Assessment Report Working Group I Draft Outline 12 October 1998 Note: Each chapter will have (i) an Executive Summary and (ii) as its first sub-section a summary of the main conclusions from the corresponding chapter(s) from the SAR. 1 The Climate System - an Overview 1.1 Introduction to the Climate System 1.2 The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Change 1.3 Natural Climate Forcing and Climate Variability 1.4 Terminology and Definitions 1.5 Key new issues - Introduction to the Report 2 Observed Climate Variability and Change 2.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 2.2 Is the Global Temperature Changing (including comparison of surface and satellite observations)? 2.3 Is the Recent Warming Unusual (including discussion of general trends and episodes and comparison with paleo-records)? 2.4 How Rapidly did Climate Change in the Past? 2.5 Has Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Increased? 2.6 Is the Atmospheric Circulation Changing? 2.7 Is the Oceanic Circulation Changing? 2.8 Has the Climate Become More Variable or Extreme? 2.9 Is the Climate Really Changing? 3 Carbon Cycle & Atmospheric CO2 3.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 3.2 Biogeochemical / Physical Sources, Sinks and Feedbacks (Terrestrial & Ocean) 3.3 Potential Releases of CO2 under Climate Change (including variations in CO2 over the last 50 million years) 3.4 Industrial Sources and Sinks 3.5 Observations, Budgets, Trends (inverse modelling) 3.6 Modelling / Projections 3.7 Sensitivity to Climate Change 4 Atmospheric Chemistry & Radiative Trace Gases 4.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 4.2 Current Observations, Trends and Budgets of Trace Gases 4.3 Projections of Future Emissions 4.4 Projections of Future Atmospheric Composition 4.5 Major Factors Controlling the Buildup of Greenhouse Gases 5 Aerosols and their Indirect Effects on Clouds 5.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 5.2 Biogeochemical Sources and Sinks (Terrestrial & Ocean) 5.3 Industrial Sources and Sinks 5.4 Volcanic Activity 5.5 Observations, Trends 5.6 Indirect Forcing on the Radiative Forcing of Clouds 5.7 Modelling / Projections 5.8 Sensitivity to Climate Change and Future Role 6 Radiative Forcing of Climate 6.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 6.2 By Gas / Aerosol 6.3 Aggregated by Sector 6.4 Solar Variability (including the possible amplification of response to solar changes) 6.5 Radiative Forcing and the Stratosphere, including stratospheric clouds 6.6 Surface Albedo Changes (including the effects of land-use change and changes in evapotranspiration) 6.7 Additivity and Regionality of Radiative Forcing 6.8 GWP and Alternative Approaches 6.9 Modelling / Projections of Radiative Forcing (past & future) 7 Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks 7.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 7.2 Atmospheric Processes and Feedbacks 7.3 Oceanic Processes and Feedbacks 7.4 Land-Surface Processes and Feedbacks 7.5 Cryosphere Processes and Feedbacks (including sea ice change) 7.6 Possible non-linear events and instabilities (including El Niño / La Niña and the dynamics of natural variability of coupled earth systems) 8 Global Climate Models - Evaluation 8.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 8.2 What do we mean by Evaluation? 8.3 Model Hierarchy 8.4 Coupled Models - Description and Methods (including model data validity and representativeness) 8.5 Coupled Models - Means 8.6 Coupled Models - Variability on Different Time Scales 8.7 Coupled Models - Phenomena 8.8 Coupled Models - Extreme Events 8.9 Sources of Uncertainty 8.10 Sensitivity of Coupled Models 8.11 Level of Confidence in Coupled Models 8.12 Simple Climate Models (MAY MOVE TO ANOTHER CHAPTER) 9 Global Climate Models - Projections 9.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 9.2 Methods of Projection Using Global Climate Models 9.3 Climate Sensitivity 9.4 Changes in the Mean 9.5 Changes in Variability 9.6 Changes in Extreme Events 9.7 Changes in Scenarios and Projections Since 1990 and 1995 9.8 Synthesis Section 10 Regional Information - Evaluation and Projections 10.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 10.2 Approaches to Regionalisation 10.3 Coupled AOGCMs 10.4 High Resolution / Variable Resolution Timeslice GCMs 10.5 Regional Climate Models 10.6 Empirical / Statistical Methods 10.7 Statistical-Dynamical Methods 10.8 Simulation and Projections of Extreme Events with Regional Climate Models 10.9 Intercomparison of Different Approaches (including comparison of models with observations) 10.10 Introduction to the Inventory of Regional Model Studies (including a wide range of regions) Appendix (Inventory of Regional Model Studies, to include tables with regions and the regional model/empirical studies applied) 11 Changes in Sea Level 11.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 11.2 Observed Sea-level Changes 11.3 Factors Contributing to Sea-level Change 11.4 Can Sea-level Changes During the Last 100 Years be Explained? 11.5 How Might Sea-level Change in the Future? 11.6 Reducing the Uncertainties in Future Estimates of Sea-level Change 12 Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes 12.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 12.2 How have Detection Methodologies Advanced? 12.3 How well can Natural Factors Explain Observed Climate Change? 12.4 How well can Anthropogenic Forcing Explain Observed Climate Change? 12.5 What are the other Qualitative Consistencies and Inconsistencies between Observed and Modelled Climate Change? 13 Climate Change Scenario Development 13.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 13.2 Sources of Information on Climate Change for Scenario Development 13.3 Baseline Climatologies, including discussion of extreme events 13.4 Incorporation of Spatial and Temporal Resolution 13.5 Measures of Uncertainty 13.6 Consistency among Scenario Components 14 Advancing our Understanding 14.1 Introduction / Tutorial / IPCC-1995 status 14.2 Improvements Needed in Observational Systems 14.3 New Research Priorities Index *************************************************  Dr. Maria Noguer  IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit  Hadley Centre   Met Office  London Road  Bracknell Berks, RG12 2SY UK Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938 Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912  Email: mnoguer@meto.gov.uk   ************************************************ Content-description: TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98 Content-disposition: attachment; filename="TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98.DOC" Content-Location: ATT-0-38AC8E2CCD61D211AC0F00104B428DD2-T ARCLALA.DOC Content-type: application/msword; name="TAR CLA,LA,RE -12/10/98.DOC" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\TAR CLA,LA,RE -121098.doc" Content-description: TAR outline short 12/10/98 Content-disposition: attachment; filename="TAR outline short 12/10/98.DOC" Content-Location: ATT-1-39AC8E2CCD61D211AC0F00104B428DD2-T AROUTLI.DOC Content-type: application/msword; name="TAR outline short 12/10/98.DOC" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\TAR outline short 121098.doc"