cc: wigley@ucar.edu, "'Phil Jones'" date: Mon, 29 Oct 2007 15:09:51 -0600 (MDT) from: wigley@ucar.edu subject: RE: Fwd: FYI: James Lovelock: Reducing emissions could speed to: "Tim Lenton" Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by moffatt.cgd.ucar.edu id l9TL9q3c027313 Hi Tim, Thanks for the email. The first paper on this is the attached Nature paper -- rather idealized. More important is work Steve Smith and I have done over the years. The best example is in the CCSP3.2 paper, under review with Climatic Change (see p. 14) -- but we discuss this elsewhere such as in Smith & Wigley 2006. I'll also enclose my geoeng paper, which I think puts the correct spin on this. We (me, Hoffert, Caldeira and Green) have other work showing that the tech challenge of 450 ppm eq. stabilization is very unlikely to be met (in contrast to and highly critical of Pacala and Socolow) -- which puts more weight on geoeng. Stabilizing sea level is a mega challenge that requires dropping CO2 to below pre-ind (unless we do geoeng). I think my paper on this touches more bases more realistically than any other published work. The tricky issue here is the spatial patterns of change, where geoeng does not balance greenhouse. We have CCSM3 runs on this in progress. Best wishes, Tom. ++++++++++++++++++++ > Hi Tom, > > Jim (and Sandy) Lovelock's email is jesjl@daisyworld.org > > I'm going to Jim's lecture this evening so if you send me a pdf of the > paper > I can hand it to him, > > Tim > > -----Original Message----- > From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 29 October 2007 13:14 > To: wigley@ucar.edu > Cc: t.lenton@uea.ac.uk > Subject: Re: Fwd: FYI: James Lovelock: Reducing emissions could speed > global > warming > > > Tim, > If you have an email for Jim Lovelock can you send to Tom Wigley > (cc'd on this email). Tom wants to remind him of a paper in Nature from > 1991. > Assuming that Jim has an email and would look at Tom's email > and likely pdf. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 12:17 29/10/2007, you wrote: >>Actually in Nature in 1991. >> >>A much more important result is in my CCSP3.2 paper. >> >>Do you have Jim's email? >> >>Tom. >>+++++++++++++++++++ >> >> > >> > Tom, >> > Deja vu !!!! >> > >> > You said this in the 1980s!! >> > >> > Cheers >> > Phil >> > >> >>Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2007 05:34:46 -0500 >> >>To: schlesin@atmos.uiuc.edu >> >>From: Michael Schlesinger >> >>Subject: FYI: James Lovelock: Reducing emissions could speed global >> >> warming >> >>X-UEA-Spam-Score: 1.7 >> >>X-UEA-Spam-Level: + >> >>X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO >> >> >> >>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml;js >> > essionid=PPV2CNTS22QGHQFIQMGCFFWAVCBQUIV0?xml=/earth/2007/10/29/eaclim129.xm > l >> >> >> >>James Lovelock: Reducing emissions could speed global warming >> >>By Charles Clover, Environment Editor >> >>Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 29/10/2007 >> >> >> >>A rapid cutback in greenhouse gas emissions >> >>could speed up global warming, the veteran >> >>environmental maverick James Lovelock will warn in a lecture today. >> >> >> >>[] >> >> >> >>An Indian woman carrying drinking water on the dried up Osman Sagar >> lake >> >> >> >>Prof Lovelock, inventor of the Gaia theory that >> >>the planet behaves like a single organism, says >> >>this is because current global warming is offset >> >>by global dimming - the 2-3ºC of cooling cause >> >>by industrial pollution, known to scientists as >> >>aerosol particles, in the atmosphere. >> >> >> >>His lecture will be delivered as Hilary Benn, >> >>the Environment Secretary, launches the results >> >>of a public consultation on the Government's >> >>proposed Climate Change Bill which is intended >> >>to cut Britain's greenhouse gas emissions by 60 per cent by 2050. >> >> >> >>Prof Lovelock will say in a lecture to the Royal >> >>Society: "Any economic downturn or planned >> >>cutback in fossil fuel use, which lessened >> >>aerosol density, would intensify the heating. >> >> >> >>"If there were a 100 per cent cut in fossil fuel >> >>combustion it might get hotter not cooler. We >> >>live in a fool's climate. We are damned if we >> >>continue to burn fuel and damned if we stop too suddenly." >> >> >> >>Prof Lovelock believes that even the gloomiest >> >>predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on >> >>Climate Change are underestimating the current >> >>severity of climate change because they do not >> >>go into the consequences of the current burden >> >>pollution in the atmosphere which will last for centuries. >> >> >> >>He argues that though the scientific language of >> >>the IPCC, which reported earlier this year, is >> >>"properly cautious" it gives the impression that >> >>the worst consequences of climate change are avoidable if we take >> action >> >> now. >> >> >> >>Prof Lovelock believes that six to eight billion >> >>humans will be faced with ever diminishing >> >>supplies of food and water in an increasingly >> >>intolerable climate and wildlife and whole ecosystems will become >> >> extinct. >> >> >> >>He argues that we have set off a vicious cycle >> >>of 'positive feedback' in the earth system >> >>whereby extra heat in the atmosphere - from any >> >>source - is amplified, causing yet more warming. >> >> >> >>He will say: "We are at war with the Earth and >> >>as in a blitzkrieg, events proceed faster than we can respond." >> >> >> >>According to Professor Lovelock's gloomy >> >>analysis, the IPCC's climate models fail to take >> >>account of the Earth as a living system where >> >>life in the oceans and land takes an active part in regulating the >> >> climate. >> >> >> >>He will argue that when a model includes the >> >>whole Earth system it shows that: "When the >> >>carbon dioxide in the air exceeds 500 parts per >> >>million the global temperature suddenly rises >> >>6ºC and becomes stable again despite further >> >>increases or decreases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. >> >> >> >>"This contrasts with the IPCC models that >> >>predict that temperature rises and falls >> >>smoothly with increasing or decreasing carbon dioxide." >> >> >> >>He argues that we should cut greenhouse gas >> >>emissions, nonetheless, because it might help >> >>slow the pace of global heating. We also have to >> >>do our best to lessen our destruction of natural >> >>forests but this is unlikely to be enough and we >> >>will have to learn to adapt to the inevitable changes we will soon >> >> experience. >> >> >> >>The pro-nuclear Prof Lovelock will say that we >> >>should think of the Earth as a live >> >>self-regulating system and devise ways to >> >>harness the natural processes that regulate the >> >>climate in the fight against global warming. >> >> >> >>This could involve paying indigenous peoples to >> >>protect their forests and develop ways to make >> >>the ocean absorb and store carbon from the atmosphere more >> efficiently. >> >> >> >>Prof Lovelock intends to add: "We are not merely >> >>a disease; we are through our intelligence and >> >>communication the planetary equivalent of a >> >>nervous system. We should be the heart and mind of the Earth not its >> >> malady." >> >> >> >>Meanwhile a Commons select committee warns today >> >>that the Government's response to climate change >> >>is "confused" and calls for a cross-departmental >> >>Climate Change Minister and a powerful new body >> >>to be created within the Cabinet Office to drive >> >>forward policy and to diminish inter-departmental conflict. >> >> >> >>Tim Yeo, MP, chairman of the Environmental Audit >> >>Committee, said: "The way the Government has >> >>addressed climate change has led to a confusing >> >>framework that doesn't promote effective action to cut emissions. >> >> >> >>"Our recommendations would create a more >> >>effective framework for dealing with climate >> >>change. However this framework alone will not >> >>cut emissions. That needs committed leadership >> >>by the Prime Minister and his Cabinet. >> >> >> >>"The Government's commitment to sustainable >> >>development and climate change will be judged by >> >>actions and achievements, not speeches and targets." >> >>Information appearing on telegraph.co.uk is the >> >>copyright of Telegraph Media Group Limited and >> >>must not be reproduced in any medium without >> >>licence. For the full copyright statement see Copyright >> >> >> > >> > Prof. Phil Jones >> > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >> > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >> > University of East Anglia >> > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >> > NR4 7TJ >> > UK >> > >> > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > > > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WigleyNature1991.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WigleyScience2006.pdf" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\WigleyAll-090907.pdf"