From: Caspar Ammann To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: That darned diagram Date: Tue, 09 Jan 2007 10:31:44 -0700 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1; format=flowed X-MIME-Autoconverted: from 8bit to quoted-printable by routt.cgd.ucar.edu id l09HVngh027823 Phil, here the graphs from the Brooks 1949 (2nd edition) that we have at NCAR. One is temperature the other precip reconstructions. Caspar Phil Jones wrote: > > Tom, Caspar, > Keep the attached to yourself. I wrote this yesterday, > but still need to do a lot more. I added in a section > about post-Lamb work in CRU, but need to check out > the references I've added and look at the extra one > from 1981 that you've sent. This may take me a little > time as I'm away Weds/Thurs this week. I see my name > on an abstract, by the way, that I have no recollection of ! > I presume this has something in about instrumental global > temps. This abstract isn't in my CV!!!!! > > So your point (3) needs to document that we knew the > diagram wasn't any good, as well as how far back it goes. > Knowing Hubert on some of his other 'breakthroughs!' > it is clearly possible it goes back to Brooks ! > > On the post-Lamb work in CRU, I recall talking to Graham > (maybe mid-1980s) when he was comparing recent CRU work > with Lamb - correlations etc. Did that ever see the light of day > in these pubs or elsewhere? I will look. It isn't in the chapter > Astrid and he wrote in the CRU book from 1997. I recall some > very low correlations - for periods from 1100 to 1500. > > This is all getting quite complex. It clearly isn't something that > should be discussed online on RC - at least till we know all > the detail and have got the history right as best we can. A lot > of this history is likely best left buried, but I hope to summarise > enough to avoid all the skeptics wanting copies of these > non-mainstream papers. Finding them in CRU may be difficult! > > As for who put the curve in - I think I know who did it. Chris may > be ignorant of the subject, but I think all he did was use the > DoE curve. This is likely bad enough. > I don't think it is going to help getting the real culprit to > admit putting it together, so I reckon Chris is going to get the blame. > I have a long email from him - just arrived. Just read that and he > seems to changing his story from last December, but I still > think he just used the diagram. Something else happened on > Friday - that I think put me onto a different track. This is all like > a mystery whodunit. > > In the meantime - any thoughts on the attached welcome. Getting the > level of detail required is the key. > > I need to do a better diagram - better scanning etc. > > Cheers > Phil > > > At 18:02 06/01/2007, Tom Wigley wrote: >> Phil, >> >> I see the problems with this in terms of history, IPCC image, >> skeptix, etc. I'm sure you can handle it. In doing so, you might >> consider (or not) some of these points. >> >> (1) I think Chris Folland is to blame for this. The issue is not >> our collective ignorance of paleoclimate in 1989/90, but >> Chris's ignorance. The text that was in the 1990 report (thanks >> for reminding us of this, Caspar) ameliorates the problem >> considerably. >> >> (2) Nevertheless, 'we' (IPCC) could have done better even then. >> The Rothlisberger data were available then -- and could/should >> have been used. >> >> (3) We also already knew that the Lamb UK record was flawed. >> We published a revision of this -- but never in a mainstream >> journal because we did not want to offend Hubert. I don't have >> the paper to hand, but I think it is ... >> >> Wigley, T.M.L., Huckstep, N.J., Mortimer, R., Farmer, G., Jones, P.D., >> Salinger, M.J. and Ogilvie, A.E.J., 1981: The reconstruction of European >> climate on decadal and shorter time scales. (In) Extended Abstracts, >> First Meeting, Reconstruction of Past Climates Contact Group, EEC >> Directorate-General for Science, Research and Development, Brussels, >> Belgium, 83­84. >> >> It could be ... >> >> Wigley, T.M.L., Farmer, G. and Ogilvie, A.E.J., 1986: Climate >> reconstruction using historical sources. (In) Current Issues in Climate >> Research (eds. A. Ghazi and R. Fantechi), D. Reidel Publishing >> Company, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 97­100. >> >> The point of this paper (whichever one it is) is that it covers only >> the decadal variation -- but it shows that Lamb was out to lunch >> even on these time scales. As you know, this arose from his uncritical >> use of historical sources -- a problem exposed in a number of CRU >> papers in the 1980s, staring with Bell and Ogilvie in Climatic Change. >> >> So part of the issue is where did Hubert get the century time scale >> changes in that diagram? The answer is, mainly from his own fertile >> imagination. For this he tried to synthesize both his flawed historical >> record for England (and records for Europe, equally flawed) and >> proxy data from many sources, again accepted uncritically. Still, >> there almost certainly was a LIA in Europe in the 17th/18th >> centuries (but not in Iceland -- at least not in the 17th century). >> Whether or not there was a significant centuries-long MWE is >> doubtful in my view. >> >> On another historical note, Hubert got many of his ideas from >> C.E.P. Brooks -- possibly Brooks's work is what inspired Hubert >> to pursue his climate interests. Of course, he went a lot further >> (too far) because he had a lot more information to work with. >> However, it is interesting that Fig. 33 in Brooks (1928) looks a >> lot like the IPCC90/Lamb Figure -- in Brooks the record goes >> back further, and there is a very warm period from about 500 >> to 950AD. >> >> You should be careful about using "recovery from the LIA" to >> explain warming after the Maunder Minimum. It is easy to show >> with (e.g.) MAGICC that there is no such thing -- especially if >> you accept the view on low-frequency solar forcing espoused >> in the recent Foukal et al. paper in Nature. If you want some >> support for this (i.e., the spurious recovery idea) I can send you >> a diagram. >> >> Tom. >> >> C.E.P. Brooks, 1928: Climate through the ages. A study of the >> climatic factors and their variations. Yale Univ. Press, New Haven, >> 439 pp. >> >> [There is a cute item in this book that one never sees any more. >> At the end of the last page it actually say "THE END".] > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Caspar M. Ammann National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics Division - Paleoclimatology 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80307-3000 email: ammann@ucar.edu tel: 303-497-1705 fax: 303-497-1348 Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Brooks1949_TempEurope.jpg" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Brooks1949_PrecEurope.jpg"