CONCLUSIONS

Leaders in climatology and economics are in agreement that a climatic change is taking place and that it has already caused major economic problems throughout the world. As it becomes more apparent to the nations around the world that the current trend is indeed a long-term reality, new alignments will be made among nations to insure a secure supply of food resources. Assessing the impact of climatic change on major nations will, in the future, occupy a major portion of the Intelligence Community's

assets.

Climatology is a budding science that has only recently given promise of fruition. Classical climatology was occupied with the archiving of evidence. Until 1968 very little was accomplished in this science toward defining casual relationships. During the last two years climatologists have made substantial progress in the development of methodologies and techniques in forecasting climatic changes. Recent developments in climatology have shown extensive promise toward providing seasonal forecasting. In the near future it may be possible to provide forecasts in the realm of one to five years.

The function of research within the Agency has been directed at defining the relationship of climatology to the intelligence problems. It is increasingly evident that the Intelligence Community must understand the magnitude of international threats which occur as a function of climatic change. These methodologies are necessary to forewarn us of the economic and political collapse of nations caused by a worldwide failure in food production. In addition, methodologies are also necessary to project and assess a nation's propensity to initiate militarily large-scale migrations of their people as has been the case for the last 4,000 years.

Though the issues are important, the United States has a limited capability in climatic forecasting. The government expends over $150 million annually on short-range weather forecasting, but only a minimum of direct dollars on climatic forecasting. Only a few academic centers in the United States are engaged in training personnel in this field, which suggests we have a limited chance of solving the Intelligence Community's problem unless decisive action is taken.

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