RECENT MILESTONES

Explanation of the scientific phenomena and elaboration of the three methodological schools provide a background for more recent developments-developments which have more relevancy to requirements as they might emerge in the Intelligence Community. The University of Wisconsin's work appears to be providing the cohesion for continuing research in this area.

The Wisconsin Study

The University of Wisconsin was the first accredited academic center to forecast that a major global climatic change was underway. Their analysis of the Icelandic temperature data, which they contend has historically been a bellwether for northern hemisphere climatic conditions, indicated that the world was returning to the type of climate which prevailed during the first part of the last century (Figure 6). This climatic change could have far-reaching economic and social impact. They observed that the climate we have enjoyed in recent decades was extremely favorable for agriculture. During this period, from 1930 to 1960, the world population doubled, national boundaries were redrawn, the industrial revolution became a worldwide phenomenon, marginal lands began to be used in an effort to feed a vastly increased population, and special crop strains optimally suited to prevailing weather conditions were developed and became part of what was called the "green revolution."

The climate of the 1800s was far less favorable for agriculture in most areas of the world. In the United States during that century, the midwest grain-producing areas were cooler and wetter, and snow lines of the Russian steppes lasted for longer periods of time. More extended periods of drought were noted in the areas of the Soviet Union now known as the new lands. Moreover, extensive monsoon failures were common around the world, affecting in particular China, the Philippines, and the Indian subcontinent.

The Wisconsin analysis questioned whether a return to these climatic conditions could support a population that has grown from 1.1 billion in 1850 to 3.75 billion in 1970. The Wisconsin group predicted that the climate could not support the world's population since technology offers no immediate solution. Further, world grain reserves

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currently amount to less than one month; thus, any delay in availability of supplies implies mass starvations. They also contended that new crop strains could not be developed overnight, and marginal lands would be less suited or perhaps unsuited to agricultural production. Moreover, they observed that agriculture would become even more energy dependent in a world of declining resources. Their "Food for Thought" chart (Figure 7) conveys some idea of the enormity of the problem and the precarious state in which most of the world's nations could find themselves if the Wisconsin forecast is correct.

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Asia

China

As an example, Europe presently, with an annual mean temperature of 12°C. (about 53°F.), supports three persons per arable hectare. If, however, the temperature declines 1°C. only a little over two persons per hectare could be supported and more than 20 percent of the population could not be fed from domestic sources. China now supports over seven persons per arable hectare; a shift of 1°C. would mean it could only support four persons per hectare-a drop of over 43 percent.

A unique aspect of the Wisconsin analysis was their estimate of the duration of this climatic change. An analysis by Dr. J. E. Kutzbach (Wisconsin) on the rate of climatic changes during the preceding 1600 years indicates an ominous consistency in the rate of which the change takes place. The maximum temperature drop normally occurred within 40 years of inception. The earliest return occurred within 70 years. (Figure 8). The longest period noted was 180 years.

The study of the impact of climatic change on past and present cultures has been a cooperative venture between the social scientist, the historian, and the climatologist. It has been shown (Figure 6) that over the last 10,000 years there have been many climatic changes of regional and global significance. Detailed descriptions exist showing how these climatic changes affected the people of these regions. The Wisconsin forecast suggests that the world is returning to the climatic regime that existed from the 1600s to the 1850s, normally, called the neo-boreal or "Little Ice Age." (This climate was physically characterized by broad strips of excess and deficit rainfall in the middle latitudes and extensive failure of the monsoons.) The political, historical, and economic consequences of this climatic era have heretofore been masked by the historian's preoccupation with the technical progress. We have recent evidence of this type of faulty analysis which has persuaded the modern agroeconomist that man's agricultural growth during the last 40 years was only due to technology and not the agro-climatic optimum of that period.

During the last neo-boreal era great segments of the world population were decimated. The great plagues of Europe, India, Africa, and Russia that occurred during this period could have been the direct result of starvation and malnutrition. In the past year data from the Sahel, Ethiopia, and India indicate that for each death caused by starvation, ten people died of epidemic diseases such as smallpox and cholera. Bodies weak from hunger are easy prey to the normal pathogenic enemies of man.

The governments and people of northern Europe once struggled to survive in an environment of persistent crop failure and declining population. On the other hand, Spain, Portugal, and Italy enjoyed a golden age. Their climate assured them of a reliable base for food production. The German states, Russia, the other Slavic nations, and to a certain extent even England and France, lived in the twilight of permanent winter.

For 250 years most of the world suffered major economic and political unrest which could be directly or indirectly attributed to the climate of the neo-boreal era. The great potato famine of 1845 in Ireland was the last gasp of the "little ice age." Yet for every death in Ireland there were ten in the Asian countries.

What would a return to this climate mean today? Based on the Wisconsin study, it would mean that India will have a major drought every four years and could only support three-fourths of her present population. The world reserve would have to supply 30 to 50 million metric tons of grain each year to prevent the deaths of 150 million Indians. China, with a major famine every five years, would require a supply of 50 million metric tons of grain. The Soviet Union would lose Kazakhstan for grain production thereby showing a yearly loss of 48 million metric tons of grain. Canada, a major exporter, would lose over 50 percent in production capability and 75 percent in exporting. Northern Europe would lose 25 to 30 percent of its present product capability while the Common Market countries would zero their exports.

People, Places and Approaches

A limited number of people within the United States are involved in climatological research. On the West Coast there are two significant groups. The first is under Dr. Larry Gates at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. Dr. Gates' work has been supported by ARPA and is theoretically Smagorinsky-ian. He has worked for three years under an ARPA grant utilizing basically the UCLA two-level General Circulation Model. Though the work has been theoretically interesting and has developed many new software capabilities, they have still not arrived at an operational system. Dr. Gates has been strongly impressed by developments in the Budyko-ian school and is in the process of modifying their simulation programs to incorporate some of the more recent thermodynamic developments.

The Scripps Institution group at La Jolla, under the direction of Dr. John Isaacs, and more recently with the inclusion of Dr. Jerome Namais, has followed both the Lambian and Budyko-ian approaches to climatological problems. Their main capabilities have been in the development of climatological observables. Dr. Isaacs' early work, which has been continued by Namais' research, was directed at the thermodynamic influence of the oceans on world atmospheric circulation. At present, no pragmatic climatological forecasting is being pursued at Scripps.

The atmospheric sciences group at the University of Arizona is solidly Budyko-ian. Dr. William Sellers who heads this group is one of the country's leading technicians in Budyko-ian methodology. His first published climatic model in 1968 was not well received by the Smagorinsky-ians or by the Budyko-ians within the world community. They did acknowledge, however, that it was the first pragmatic systematizing of this approach. His latest model, developed in 1972, has had a significant effect in crystalizing this whole philosophy and demonstrating a pragmatic climatological model.

There are two climate groups in the midwest-one being NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) at Boulder, Colorado. Their efforts have been to explore highly disaggregated atmospheric models. The second group, at the University of Wisconsin, is under Reid Bryson and John Kutzbach, both mentioned earlier. Their work at Wisconsin represents the focal point for climatological research in the United States. They are the only people within the academic community in the United States that have a seasonal climatological forecasting system.

The eastern establishment, consisting of Princeton and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, is primarily Smagorinsky-ian. They are basically NOAA-funded and, though primarily engaged in increasing the accuracy of meteorological forecasts, have attempted without success to provide climatological forecasting capabilities.

In summation, the eastern schools have employed basically the Smagorinsky-ian principles in one way or another. The limitation of this approach, although not yet apparent to the establishment, is rapidly being abandoned by the academic community. The pragmatic capabilities of the Budyko-ians and the methodologies therein are quickly being absorbed by both the East and West Coast establishments. The Lambians and their primarily statistical approach are beginning to lose favor, but their development of historical climatological records has provided a vital service within the climatological community.

San Diego Conference

By the fall of 1973 the Office of Research and Development (ORD) had obtained sufficient evidence to alert the Agency analysts that forecasts of an ongoing global climate change were reasonable and worthy of attention. ORD also determined that it was feasible to begin the development of forecasting techniques and impact assessment. However, Agency analysts remained skeptical, noting that the mix of approaches (Wisconsin, Scripps, RAND, NCAR) and the scientific personalities pursuing them prevented a clear expression of what the recognized authorities were agreeing on.

To resolve these issues, the principal investigators representing the various research approaches convened in San Diego in April 1974 to discuss these three specific topics:

The state of climatological forecasting; identification of elements of the methodology wherein there is some consensus, current trends in development, and new approaches.

Prospects for developing near-term applications of climatology to Agency interests.

Recommendations for high- and low-risk approaches for long-range climatological models development.

For two days they argued, discussed, and defended their approaches to climatic forecasting and the impact of climatic change. By the second day a consensus was reached on the following fundamental issues:

A global climatic change is taking place.

We will not soon return to the climate patterns of the recent past.

For the future, there is a high probability of increased variability in a number of features of climate that are of importance to crop growth.

The most promising long-range (1-5 years) approach to climate forecasting appears to be the statistical synoptic approach. The consensus expressed caution in using these projections without an attempt to develop some physical understanding of the underlying weather-forcing mechanisms.

In general, the conference participants were skeptical of the prospects of making a one- to five-year forecast at this time, stating that only season-to-season forecasts were within the state of the art.

The conference participants unanimously recommended that the clear need for a long-range prediction dictated the establishment of an Operational Diagnostic Center charged with developing global forecasting techniques and for servicing the Government's needs for one-to-five year forecasts.

National Climate Plan

In the summer of 1973 the Wisconsin Plan for Climatic Research was presented to the National Security Council. NOAA and the National Science Foundation were requested to review this plan and to suggest how it should be implemented. The Wisconsin Plan stimulated activity in many agencies.

In the fall of 1973 three agencies in the government became active in the development of climatic research plans: NSF, NOAA, and the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Sciences established the Committee on Climatic Variation, chaired by Dr. Larry Gates. The committee members completed their recommendations for a National Climatic Research Plan in June of 1974. This plan is presently under assessment by the National Academy of Sciences. Its final approval is expected late this year. Early in 1974, NOAA began developing a plan which would include a Center for Climatic and Environmental Assessment as suggested by preliminary recommendations from the National Academy of Sciences Committee. This plan would allow NOAA to respond rapidly to the needs of government agencies that are concerned with the impact of climatic factors on both a national and global scale.

In the spring of 1974, the Director of the Polar Studies Division of NSF developed a plan to establish a Center for Climatic Research as well as to provide funding to appropriate academic centers.

Both of these plans have been incorporated into what is now called the National Climate Plan. NOAA would be responsible for developing methods for practical climate forecasting as well as developing techniques applicable for the assessment of national and international food production. NSF would provide support to responsible academic centers and establish a Center for Climatic Research. This Center would operate in a similar manner as the present National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) at Boulder, Colorado. The National Climatic Plan is presently under review by NOAA and the NSF. They expect to seek approval from the Office of Management and Budget in the fall of 1974 for FY 76 program funding.

CONCLUSIONS