year | CO2_measured | incr_measured | incr_5yr_smoothed | proj_incr | CO2_projected | CO2_error | log(CO2_projected) | log(proj_incr) | forcing increase |
1958 | 315.34 | ||||||||
1959 | 315.97 | 0.63 | |||||||
1960 | 316.91 | 0.94 | |||||||
1961 | 317.64 | 0.73 | 0.730 | ||||||
1962 | 318.45 | 0.81 | 0.730 | ||||||
1963 | 318.99 | 0.54 | 0.626 | ||||||
1964 | 319.62 | 0.63 | 0.748 | ||||||
1965 | 320.04 | 0.42 | 0.742 | ||||||
1966 | 321.38 | 1.34 | 0.810 | ||||||
1967 | 322.16 | 0.78 | 1.000 | ||||||
1968 | 323.04 | 0.88 | 1.128 | ||||||
1969 | 324.62 | 1.58 | 0.988 | ||||||
1970 | 325.68 | 1.06 | 1.058 | 1.200 | 325.68 | 0.00 | 2.512791 | ||
1971 | 326.32 | 0.64 | 1.328 | 1.218 | 326.88 | 0.56 | 2.514388 | 0.006466 | 0.001597 |
1972 | 327.45 | 1.13 | 1.112 | 1.236 | 328.10 | 0.65 | 2.516004 | 0.006466 | 0.001615 |
1973 | 329.68 | 2.23 | 1.086 | 1.255 | 329.33 | -0.35 | 2.517637 | 0.006466 | 0.001633 |
1974 | 330.18 | 0.50 | 1.144 | 1.274 | 330.59 | 0.41 | 2.519289 | 0.006466 | 0.001652 |
1975 | 331.11 | 0.93 | 1.276 | 1.293 | 331.86 | 0.75 | 2.520958 | 0.006466 | 0.001670 |
1976 | 332.04 | 0.93 | 1.144 | 1.312 | 333.16 | 1.12 | 2.522647 | 0.006466 | 0.001688 |
1977 | 333.83 | 1.79 | 1.332 | 1.332 | 334.47 | 0.64 | 2.524354 | 0.006466 | 0.001707 |
1978 | 335.40 | 1.57 | 1.528 | 1.352 | 335.80 | 0.40 | 2.526080 | 0.006466 | 0.001726 |
1979 | 336.84 | 1.44 | 1.614 | 1.372 | 337.15 | 0.31 | 2.527825 | 0.006466 | 0.001745 |
1980 | 338.75 | 1.91 | 1.524 | 1.393 | 338.52 | -0.23 | 2.529589 | 0.006466 | 0.001764 |
1981 | 340.11 | 1.36 | 1.530 | 1.414 | 339.92 | -0.19 | 2.531371 | 0.006466 | 0.001783 |
1982 | 341.45 | 1.34 | 1.562 | 1.435 | 341.33 | -0.12 | 2.533174 | 0.006466 | 0.001802 |
1983 | 343.05 | 1.60 | 1.474 | 1.456 | 342.76 | -0.29 | 2.534995 | 0.006466 | 0.001822 |
1984 | 344.65 | 1.60 | 1.462 | 1.478 | 344.22 | -0.43 | 2.536837 | 0.006466 | 0.001841 |
1985 | 346.12 | 1.47 | 1.548 | 1.500 | 345.70 | -0.42 | 2.538698 | 0.006466 | 0.001861 |
1986 | 347.42 | 1.30 | 1.704 | 1.523 | 347.20 | -0.22 | 2.540578 | 0.006466 | 0.001881 |
1987 | 349.19 | 1.77 | 1.694 | 1.546 | 348.72 | -0.47 | 2.542479 | 0.006466 | 0.001901 |
1988 | 351.57 | 2.38 | 1.654 | 1.569 | 350.27 | -1.30 | 2.544400 | 0.006466 | 0.001921 |
1989 | 353.12 | 1.55 | 1.638 | 1.592 | 351.84 | -1.28 | 2.546340 | 0.006466 | 0.001941 |
1990 | 354.39 | 1.27 | 1.452 | 1.616 | 353.43 | -0.96 | 2.548301 | 0.006466 | 0.001961 |
1991 | 355.61 | 1.22 | 1.106 | 1.640 | 355.04 | -0.57 | 2.550283 | 0.006466 | 0.001981 |
1992 | 356.45 | 0.84 | 1.142 | 1.665 | 356.69 | 0.24 | 2.552285 | 0.006466 | 0.002002 |
1993 | 357.10 | 0.65 | 1.286 | 1.690 | 358.35 | 1.25 | 2.554308 | 0.006466 | 0.002023 |
1994 | 358.83 | 1.73 | 1.400 | 1.715 | 360.04 | 1.21 | 2.556351 | 0.006466 | 0.002043 |
1995 | 360.82 | 1.99 | 1.456 | 1.741 | 361.76 | 0.94 | 2.558415 | 0.006466 | 0.002064 |
1996 | 362.61 | 1.79 | 1.920 | 1.767 | 363.50 | 0.89 | 2.560501 | 0.006466 | 0.002085 |
1997 | 363.73 | 1.12 | 1.910 | 1.794 | 365.26 | 1.53 | 2.562607 | 0.006466 | 0.002106 |
1998 | 366.70 | 2.97 | 1.746 | 1.821 | 367.06 | 0.36 | 2.564734 | 0.006466 | 0.002128 |
1999 | 368.38 | 1.68 | 1.706 | 1.848 | 368.88 | 0.50 | 2.566883 | 0.006466 | 0.002149 |
2000 | 369.55 | 1.17 | 1.910 | 1.876 | 370.73 | 1.18 | 2.569054 | 0.006466 | 0.002170 |
2001 | 371.14 | 1.59 | 1.820 | 1.904 | 372.60 | 1.46 | 2.571245 | 0.006466 | 0.002192 |
2002 | 373.28 | 2.14 | 1.828 | 1.932 | 374.51 | 1.23 | 2.573459 | 0.006466 | 0.002213 |
2003 | 375.80 | 2.52 | 2.050 | 1.961 | 376.44 | 0.64 | 2.575694 | 0.006466 | 0.002235 |
2004 | 377.52 | 1.72 | 2.152 | 1.991 | 378.40 | 0.88 | 2.577951 | 0.006466 | 0.002257 |
2005 | 379.80 | 2.28 | 2.102 | 2.021 | 380.39 | 0.59 | 2.580230 | 0.006466 | 0.002279 |
2006 | 381.90 | 2.10 | 1.960 | 2.051 | 382.41 | 0.51 | 2.582531 | 0.006466 | 0.002301 |
2007 | 383.79 | 1.89 | 1.982 | 2.082 | 384.46 | 0.67 | 2.584854 | 0.006466 | 0.002323 |
2008 | 385.60 | 1.81 | 2.020 | 2.113 | 386.54 | 0.94 | 2.587199 | 0.006466 | 0.002345 |
2009 | 387.43 | 1.83 | 1.950 | 2.145 | 388.66 | 1.23 | 2.589566 | 0.006466 | 0.002368 |
2010 | 389.90 | 2.47 | 2.012 | 2.177 | 390.80 | 0.90 | 2.591956 | 0.006466 | 0.002390 |
2011 | 391.65 | 1.75 | 2.184 | 2.209 | 392.98 | 1.33 | 2.594369 | 0.006466 | 0.002412 |
2012 | 393.85 | 2.20 | 2.244 | 2.243 | 395.19 | 1.34 | 2.596803 | 0.006466 | 0.002435 |
2013 | 396.52 | 2.67 | 2.186 | 2.276 | 397.43 | 0.91 | 2.599261 | 0.006466 | 0.002458 |
2014 | 398.65 | 2.13 | 2.512 | 2.310 | 399.71 | 1.06 | 2.601741 | 0.006466 | 0.002480 |
2015 | 400.83 | 2.18 | 2.568 | 2.345 | 402.02 | 1.19 | 2.604244 | 0.006466 | 0.002503 |
2016 | 404.21 | 3.38 | 2.380 | 404.36 | 0.15 | 2.606770 | 0.006466 | 0.002526 | |
2017 | 406.69 | 2.48 | 2.416 | 406.74 | 0.05 | 2.609319 | 0.006466 | 0.002549 | |
avg: | 0.44 | ||||||||
Notes: | |||||||||
This spreadsheet by Dave Burton was created to check an assertion by Nick Stokes w/r/t exponential vs. linear effect of an exponentially increasing CO2 increment. See: | |||||||||
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/03/uah-2017-was-third-warmest-year-in-satellite-record/#comment-2250376 | |||||||||
The 1.015 multiplier used in the formuli in the proj_incr colum (E15 & below) is the 1.5% projected annual GHG increase from Hansen et al 1988's Scenario A. | |||||||||
The +1.20 ppmv 1970-to-1971 increment is not from Hansen et al 1988. Rather, I chose it to make the CO2 projection to 2017 come out correct. | |||||||||
The CO2_measured values are from Mauna Loa; see: | |||||||||
https://www.sealevel.info/co2.html | |||||||||
Nick was right, and I (Dave) was wrong. The forcing trend from the sum of a constant CO2 base level plus exponentially increasing CO2 increment is greater than linear | |||||||||
(though less than the "exponential" increase claimed in Hansen et al 1988). | |||||||||
5 Jan, 2018 |
This web page is an exported Excel spreadsheet,
which can be directly loaded in Microsoft Excel 2003 or later.
Or you may download the .xlsx file here:
https://sealevel.info/co2_exp_projection.xlsx