year CO2_measured incr_measured incr_5yr_smoothed proj_incr CO2_projected CO2_error log(CO2_projected) log(proj_incr) forcing increase
1958 315.34
1959 315.97 0.63
1960 316.91 0.94
1961 317.64 0.73 0.730
1962 318.45 0.81 0.730
1963 318.99 0.54 0.626
1964 319.62 0.63 0.748
1965 320.04 0.42 0.742
1966 321.38 1.34 0.810
1967 322.16 0.78 1.000
1968 323.04 0.88 1.128
1969 324.62 1.58 0.988
1970 325.68 1.06 1.058 1.200 325.68 0.00 2.512791
1971 326.32 0.64 1.328 1.218 326.88 0.56 2.514388 0.006466 0.001597
1972 327.45 1.13 1.112 1.236 328.10 0.65 2.516004 0.006466 0.001615
1973 329.68 2.23 1.086 1.255 329.33 -0.35 2.517637 0.006466 0.001633
1974 330.18 0.50 1.144 1.274 330.59 0.41 2.519289 0.006466 0.001652
1975 331.11 0.93 1.276 1.293 331.86 0.75 2.520958 0.006466 0.001670
1976 332.04 0.93 1.144 1.312 333.16 1.12 2.522647 0.006466 0.001688
1977 333.83 1.79 1.332 1.332 334.47 0.64 2.524354 0.006466 0.001707
1978 335.40 1.57 1.528 1.352 335.80 0.40 2.526080 0.006466 0.001726
1979 336.84 1.44 1.614 1.372 337.15 0.31 2.527825 0.006466 0.001745
1980 338.75 1.91 1.524 1.393 338.52 -0.23 2.529589 0.006466 0.001764
1981 340.11 1.36 1.530 1.414 339.92 -0.19 2.531371 0.006466 0.001783
1982 341.45 1.34 1.562 1.435 341.33 -0.12 2.533174 0.006466 0.001802
1983 343.05 1.60 1.474 1.456 342.76 -0.29 2.534995 0.006466 0.001822
1984 344.65 1.60 1.462 1.478 344.22 -0.43 2.536837 0.006466 0.001841
1985 346.12 1.47 1.548 1.500 345.70 -0.42 2.538698 0.006466 0.001861
1986 347.42 1.30 1.704 1.523 347.20 -0.22 2.540578 0.006466 0.001881
1987 349.19 1.77 1.694 1.546 348.72 -0.47 2.542479 0.006466 0.001901
1988 351.57 2.38 1.654 1.569 350.27 -1.30 2.544400 0.006466 0.001921
1989 353.12 1.55 1.638 1.592 351.84 -1.28 2.546340 0.006466 0.001941
1990 354.39 1.27 1.452 1.616 353.43 -0.96 2.548301 0.006466 0.001961
1991 355.61 1.22 1.106 1.640 355.04 -0.57 2.550283 0.006466 0.001981
1992 356.45 0.84 1.142 1.665 356.69 0.24 2.552285 0.006466 0.002002
1993 357.10 0.65 1.286 1.690 358.35 1.25 2.554308 0.006466 0.002023
1994 358.83 1.73 1.400 1.715 360.04 1.21 2.556351 0.006466 0.002043
1995 360.82 1.99 1.456 1.741 361.76 0.94 2.558415 0.006466 0.002064
1996 362.61 1.79 1.920 1.767 363.50 0.89 2.560501 0.006466 0.002085
1997 363.73 1.12 1.910 1.794 365.26 1.53 2.562607 0.006466 0.002106
1998 366.70 2.97 1.746 1.821 367.06 0.36 2.564734 0.006466 0.002128
1999 368.38 1.68 1.706 1.848 368.88 0.50 2.566883 0.006466 0.002149
2000 369.55 1.17 1.910 1.876 370.73 1.18 2.569054 0.006466 0.002170
2001 371.14 1.59 1.820 1.904 372.60 1.46 2.571245 0.006466 0.002192
2002 373.28 2.14 1.828 1.932 374.51 1.23 2.573459 0.006466 0.002213
2003 375.80 2.52 2.050 1.961 376.44 0.64 2.575694 0.006466 0.002235
2004 377.52 1.72 2.152 1.991 378.40 0.88 2.577951 0.006466 0.002257
2005 379.80 2.28 2.102 2.021 380.39 0.59 2.580230 0.006466 0.002279
2006 381.90 2.10 1.960 2.051 382.41 0.51 2.582531 0.006466 0.002301
2007 383.79 1.89 1.982 2.082 384.46 0.67 2.584854 0.006466 0.002323
2008 385.60 1.81 2.020 2.113 386.54 0.94 2.587199 0.006466 0.002345
2009 387.43 1.83 1.950 2.145 388.66 1.23 2.589566 0.006466 0.002368
2010 389.90 2.47 2.012 2.177 390.80 0.90 2.591956 0.006466 0.002390
2011 391.65 1.75 2.184 2.209 392.98 1.33 2.594369 0.006466 0.002412
2012 393.85 2.20 2.244 2.243 395.19 1.34 2.596803 0.006466 0.002435
2013 396.52 2.67 2.186 2.276 397.43 0.91 2.599261 0.006466 0.002458
2014 398.65 2.13 2.512 2.310 399.71 1.06 2.601741 0.006466 0.002480
2015 400.83 2.18 2.568 2.345 402.02 1.19 2.604244 0.006466 0.002503
2016 404.21 3.38 2.380 404.36 0.15 2.606770 0.006466 0.002526
2017 406.69 2.48 2.416 406.74 0.05 2.609319 0.006466 0.002549
avg: 0.44
Notes:
This spreadsheet by Dave Burton was created to check an assertion by Nick Stokes w/r/t exponential vs. linear effect of an exponentially increasing CO2 increment. See:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/03/uah-2017-was-third-warmest-year-in-satellite-record/#comment-2709033
The 1.015 multiplier used in the formuli in the proj_incr colum (E15 & below) is the 1.5% projected annual GHG increase from Hansen et al 1988's Scenario A.
The +1.20 ppmv 1970-to-1971 increment is not from Hansen et al 1988. Rather, I chose it to make the CO2 projection to 2017 come out correct.
The CO2_measured values are from Mauna Loa; see:
https://www.sealevel.info/co2.html
Nick was right, and I (Dave) was wrong. The forcing trend from the sum of a constant CO2 base level plus exponentially increasing CO2 increment is greater than linear
(though less than the "exponential" increase claimed in Hansen et al 1988).
5 Jan, 2018