cc: "David Randall" date: Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:14:30 +0100 from: "Wood, Richard" subject: RE: In case you've not seen this awful paper to: "Phil Jones" , "Folland, Chris" Thanks for the warning Phil. From a quick look this one seems to plumb new depths of garbage, though no doubt they have a few reasonable points somewhere. Since Chapter 8 is the focus of their bile, I'll give the paper a read through. I'm sure the authors, as economic/political forecasters, have a huge track record of successful forecastng so thay can teach us a thing or two. I particularly love the bit that says that nonlinear models produce inaccurate forecasts. I'll pass that on to my weather forecasting colleagues so they can cross a few terms out of their equations! Cheers, Richard -------------- Richard Wood Met Office Fellow and Head (Climate, Cryosphere and Oceans) Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK Phone +44 (0)1392 886641 Fax +44 (0)1392 885681 Email richard.wood@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > -----Original Message----- > From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 25 June 2007 09:06 > To: Wood, Richard; Folland, Chris > Subject: In case you've not seen this awful paper > > > Richard, Chris, > You may have seen this, so apologies if you have. Kevin's brief > response is to the point. There might be some media coverage > this week, as I think ISF is on now. > > We didn't respond to their email a few months back as it was > too vague. I did get one though from Kestin Green. > > It would seem that both authors could do with reading some > relevant literature - at least understand the difference > between forecasts, > predictions and projections. > > Cheers > Phil > > > >X-Authentication-Warning: moffatt.cgd.ucar.edu: apache set sender to > >trenbert@ucar.edu using -f > >Date: Sun, 24 Jun 2007 18:21:24 -0600 (MDT) > >Subject: Re: Forecasting conference - Armstrong paper > >From: "Kevin Trenberth" > >To: j.renwick@niwa.co.nz > >Cc: "Phil Jones" > >Reply-To: trenbert@ucar.edu > >User-Agent: SquirrelMail/1.4.8-2.el4.centos4 > >X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 > >X-UEA-Spam-Level: / > >X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > > > >Jim > >Yes, and I offer the attached comments on his paper. I > haven't commented > >on the bet he has made, but there will probably be something on > >realclimate.com. > >I have had a lot of exchanges with Gavin. > >Not sure what to do with this: post it on realclimate.com is > one option. > >Anyway I am in the middle as a keynote speaker at this > conference. I do > >plan to make my ppt available after the mtg via my web site. > > > >Kevin > > > > > Hi Kevin: > > > > > > I se you're speaking at ISF 2007 this week. One of the > other invited > > > speakers, J Scott Armstrong, who is talking about public > policy and > > > forecasting (http://www.forecasters.org/isf/) has written > the attached, > > > ostensible for the ISF meeting. It's a strange document - > even I get > > > quoted in terms of a casual remark I made to an NZ > journalist a few > > > weeks ago (I should know by now there's no such thing as a casual > > > remark). Just thought you should know this stuff, if you > didn't already. > > > > > > I got the PDF off the NZ Climate Science Coalition (i.e. > Vince Gray and > > > co) website. By the way, I suppose you heard Augie Auer > died suddenly a > > > couple of weeks ago? > > > > > > > > > Cheers, > > > Jim > > > -- > > > Dr James Renwick, Science Leader, climate variability & change > > > National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research > > > Private Bag 14901, Wellington, NEW ZEALAND > > > J.Renwick@niwa.co.nz Ph: +64-4-3860343 Mob: +64-21-1785550 > > > http://www.niwa.co.nz Fax: +64-4-3862153 or +64-4-3860574 > > > > > > > > >___________________ > >Kevin Trenberth > >Climate Analysis Section, NCAR > >PO Box 3000 > >Boulder CO 80307 > >ph 303 497 1318 > >http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > -------------------------------------------------------------- > -------------- > >