cc: "Jones, Gareth S" , "Jones, Phil" , "Folland, Chris" , "Boucher, Olivier" date: Fri, 21 Dec 2007 12:21:06 +0000 from: David Parker subject: Re: FW: New Statesman to: Press Office Barry Here is an initial contribution David "Dear Sir, It is not possible to establish a significant trend of global annual surface temperatures, or lack thereof, over a period as short as 10 years. However the longer-term trends, whether over 25, 50 or 100 years remain highly significant. Short-term fluctuations in global surface temperature can be caused by natural oceanic phenomena including El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events in the tropical Pacific, and 2007 has been cooled by the latter. However these phenomena merely redistribute heat towards or away from the ocean's surface, rather than changing the total heat content, which will always rise if (owing e.g. to higher concentrations of greenhouse gases) the longwave radiation going out to space is less than the incoming solar radiation. The oceans are by far the largest heat reservoir and the 2007 IPCC Report shows that their heat content is increasing. The record melt of Arctic sea ice in 2007 also represents an increase of the heat content of the Earth." ***********************************8 On Thu, 2007-12-20 at 14:03 +0000, Press Office wrote: > Both > > > > Please see the New Statesman article below which Vicky suggests we > should consider responding. Would either of you wish to draft a letter > in reply? > > > > Thanks > > Barry > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > > From: Pope, Vicky > Sent: 20 December 2007 13:59 > To: Press Office > Subject: RE: New Statesman > > > > > THis looks like one it might be worth responding to. > > > > David Parker, Olivier Boucher or Peter Stott might be able to help? > > > > Vicky > > > > > Dr Vicky Pope > Head of Climate Change for Government > Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB > Tel: +44 (0)1392 884655 mobile + 44 (0)7753 880669 > Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 (mark FAO Vicky Pope) > E-mail: vicky.pope@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > > > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > > From:Gromett, Barry On Behalf Of Press Office > Sent: 20 December 2007 12:46 > To: Pope, Vicky > Subject: FW: New Statesman > > Vicky > > > > Any thoughts on responding to Whitehouseÿs latest musings? > > > > Barry > > > > > ______________________________________________________________________ > > From: Bob Ward [mailto:Bob.Ward@rms.com] > Sent: 20 December 2007 12:37 > To: Press Office > Subject: New Statesman > > > > > I was wondering whether you have seen the article by David Whitehouse > in the latest edition of 'New Statesman'? > http://www.newstatesman.com/200712190004 > > > > > > Do you have any plans to respond to the article, and if not, do you > have any advice for anybody who does want to respond. > > > > > > Yours sincerely, > > > > > > Bob Ward > > Director, Global Science Networks > > > > Risk Management Solutions Ltd > > Peninsular House > > 30 Monument Street > > London > > EC3R 8NB > > > > Tel. +44 (0) 20 7444 7741 > > Blackberry +44 (0) 7710 333687 > > > > www.rms.com > > > > > > > > > > > > This message and any attachments contain information that may be RMS Inc. > confidential and/or privileged. If you are not the intended recipient > (or authorized to receive for the intended recipient), and have received > this message in error, any use, disclosure or distribution is strictly > prohibited. If you have received this message in error, please notify > the sender immediately by replying to the e-mail and permanently deleting > the message from your computer and/or storage system. -- David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1 3PB UK E-mail: david.parker@metoffice.gov.uk Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk