date: Tue, 06 Oct 1998 12:53:12 +0100 from: "Jenkins, Geoff" subject: FW: coP4 handout to: "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" > -----Original Message----- > From: Jenkins, Geoff > Sent: 06 October 1998 09:55 > To: 'a.white@ite.ac.uk'; 'nwa1@soton.ac.uk'; 'parrym@aol.com'; > 'robert14@mdx.ac.uk'; 't.mcmichael@LSHTM.ac.uk' > Subject: coP4 handout > > Below is the text for the introduction, summary and further info sections > of the CoP4 handout. I would be grateful if you would let me have > corrections etc as soon as possible. If you want me to put in a website > address please let me know it, otherwise I will omit it. > The draft of your text and diagrams is currently with DETR for final > agreeement. > > Thanks for all your help > <> Geoff Jenkins > > Introduction > > Recognising the threat of future climate change and its impacts, the UK > Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions established in > 1997 a series of linked research projects which predict changes in climate > over the next decades and assess the potential global impact in key > sectors. These sectors covered natural ecosystems, water resources, food > supply and coastal areas. The first report from this study was published > in December 1997 as "Climate change and its impacts". > > Since then, the Hadley Centre has generated a new scenario of climate > change based on predictions from a new model, HadCM3. The scenario assumes > an increase in greenhouse gases according to the IPCC "business-as-usual" > emissions projections, without changes in sulphate aerosols (which make > little difference to the global temperature rise but could affect regional > patterns of change). As in 1997, assessment models have been used to look > at the impacts arising from this new scenario, and the range of sectors > has been extended to include human health - specifically, malaria. > > This report can be considered as an update of the one issued in December > 1997, and much of the background, assumptions and caveats discussed in > that report are still current. The contributions to research from the UK > Public Meteorological Service programme are fully acknowledged. > > Summary > > * The 1997/98 El Nino was the most extreme on record. Global mean > surface temperature in 1998 is likley to exceed that in 1997 and be the > highest since global instrumental records began. > > * Predictions of climate change have been made using an improved climate > model without arbitrary corrections. IPCC-projected increases in > greenhouse gas emissions result in a warming of about 3°C over the next > 100 years. Based on a revised projection of human-made sulphur emissions, > sulphate aerosols make little difference to this global prediction. > > * Comparisons of model simulations and observations, based on new > statistical techniques, indicate that human-made made greenhouse gases > have contributed substantially to global warming over the past 50 years. > Initial results also show that sensitivity of the climate model to changes > in greenhouse gases is not dissimilar to that of the real climate system. > > * The new climate model has a better representation of ocean currents. > Increases in greenhouse gases result in a slowing down of the North > Atlantic ocean circulation, although not as rapidly as with some other > models. > > * Based on the new climate scenario for the 2050s, tropical forests will > die back in many areas of northern S America. In other areas of the world > tropical grassland will be transformed to desert or temperate grassland. > > * Vegetation will absorb CO2 at the rate of 2-3 GtC/y in the first half > of the next century. Due to vegetation dieback, this will later become a > source of 2 GtC/y and will enhance CO2 build up in the atmosphere. > > * Water resource stresses in many of the poorest countries will be > enhanced by climate change. Due to climate change alone, some 66 million > extra people will live in countries with water stress, and some 170 > million people will live in countries which are extremely stressed. > > * Climate change is expected to increase crop yields in high and > mid-latitude countries such as Canada and Europe, but lead to decreases in > lower latitudes. The food system will accommodate to regional variations > in yields at the global level, with production, prices and risk of hunger > being relatively unaffected (Matt: is 30M more at risk of hunger > unaffected???). > > * Some regions, particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics, will be most > adversely affected, experiencing marked reductions in yield, decreases in > production and increases in the risk of hunger. In Africa, for example, X > (Matt - absolute number pse - instead of the 18%) million additional > people will be at risk of hunger due to climate change alone by the 2050s. > > > * The predicted 21cm sea level rise by the 2050s, and assuming no changes > in coastal protection, some 50 million additional people will be at risk > annually. Even with evolving protection sea level rise will each year put > an additional 20 million people at risk of flooding. South and south-east > Asia are most vulnerable. > > * Growth in population alone will increase the number of people at risk > of malaria; climate change will add to this increase, particularly in > areas where currently the disease is not endemic. > > Further information > Further information on the topics covered in this report can be obtained > from the contacts below. > > Climate change science > * Dr Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, > The Met.Office: gjjenkins@meto.gov.uk > > Website:www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html > > * Dr Mike Hulme, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia: > m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > > Website: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link > > > Impacts on natural vegetation > * Dr Andy White, NERC Institute of Terrestrial Ecology: > a.white@ite.ac.uk > > Website: ??? > > > Impacts on coastal areas > * Dr Robert Nicholls, University of Middlesex: r.nicholls@mdx.ac.uk > > Website: ???? > > > Impacts on food supply > Professor Martin Parry, Jackson Environmental Institute, University > College London: parrym@aol.com > > Website: ???? > > Impacts on water resources > Dr Nigel Arnell, University of Southampton: n.w.arnell@soton.ac.uk > > Website: ??? > > Impacts on Human Health > Professor Tony McMichael, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine: > t.mcmichael@LSHTM.ac.uk > > Website: ???? > > > > > > > > > > > Content-disposition: attachment; filename=COP4SUM Content-Location: ATT-0-BBD4ED23F95CD211AC0F00104B428DD2-C OP4SUM Content-type: application/octet-stream; name="COP4SUM" Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\COP4SUM"