date: Mon, 18 Feb 2002 17:58:49 +100
from: hleusch@gwdg.de
subject: Kelly-paper
to: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@uea.ac.uk>

Keith, I now found the time to read the paper more carefully, 
together with the figures. I think except of my basic critics (no 
regard of replication) the results are astonishing good. The trick to 
substract pdsi-values and to calculate significance in comparison to 
the previous year  does pretty nice hide the information how many of 
the negative signature years in the 20th century had really been dry 
years - at least in 1956 the opposite is true. However astonishing 
interesting results, especially for me the 3-4 years ring widt 
suppressions following cold winters which you explain by climatic 
reasons and which I see as medium term reaction on damage in cold 
winters. So - from my side no hints for changes in the hurry (this 
week I am overbusy with an everyday course in Dendrochronology for 
students) but the hope that we will one day find the time to repeat 
the study a bit more carefully. Cheers Hubert
Dr. Hanns Hubert Leuschner
Univ. Goettingen
-Labor f. Dendrochronologie u. Dendroklimatologie-
Von-Siebold-Str. 3a
D-37075 Goettingen
Phone: +49-551-3912153