cc: "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" , "Grubb, Michael J" date: Thu, 7 Dec 2000 19:03:58 -0000 from: "Grubb, Michael J" subject: Euro Climate Forum possibility? to: "H. J. Schellnhuber (E-mail)" , "Klaus Hasselman (E-mail)" , "'pier.vellinga@ivm.vu.nl'" , "Carlo Carraro (E-mail)" , "Jean-Charles Hourcade (E-mail)" , "'jaeger@eawag.ch'" Dear All I talked to Jon briefly in the Hague about the proposed European Climate Forum, and to Mike Hulme yesterday. I discussed with Mike the possibility of following up the RIIA workshop, 'Quantifying Kyoto', of which the papers (including summary) are on the following web site; I also attach the 2-page summary published in Climate Policy. Basically the conclusion was that we were still extremely uncertain in many dimensions, particularly but not only the sinks issues. Mike suggested a follow-up next year - RIIA will not be doing a follow-up on its own at least - might be an activity appropriate for the Forum and that I email to each of you with this thought and info. We both also felt that it would be interesting to explore the longer-term implications in terms of trajectories for different sets of assumptions (including political assumtions about the decisions on balance / constraints on the various mechanisms - including post Hague possible complete breakdown of the system!?). This would for example capture issues of sink permanance and the innovation implications of different pressures on the energy system itself over the next 10 years. Mike suggested this might be a possibilty for discussion for whenever the Forum gets gets together. Just a thought. All papers at: http://www.riia.org/Research/eep/quantifying.html Best wishes, Michael