cc: Meric Srokosz , Philip Newton , Andy Parsons , date: Thu May 20 12:40:54 2004 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: RAPID statement -round 2 to: Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Christine Gommenginger Probably OK , but I can see the influence of the diplomats . Personally ( and having not seen the film!) I think we could be harder , in the sense of emphasizing the massive over sensationalism (is there such a word?) . Keith At 12:13 20/05/2004, Sandy Tudhope wrote: Dear Christine, Looks fine, but I would endorse Simon's suggested change of "would" to "could". Cheers, Sandy On 20 May 2004, at 11:28, Christine Gommenginger wrote: Dear RAPID SC member, Given the anticipated interest in rapid climate change issues following next Friday's global release of the Day after Tomorrow Hollywood blockbuster movie, Meric and I have (with advice from our local communication officials) prepared a statement to post on the RAPID web site (see below). Our aim is to keep it brief - in fact it may already be too long. Please can you let me know asap of any absolute show-stoppers. My aim is to post it on our web page some time tomorrow (i.e. before the week-end). Many thanks, Christine The Day After Tomorrow - the latest Hollywood blockbuster movie by Roland Emmerich, maker of "Independence Day" - depicts an extreme rapid climate change event following the sudden shutdown of the North Atlantic overturning circulation due to global warming. Could this really happen? While the film is a classic action movie featuring hugely exaggerated events (total shutdown takes place over a few days rather than decades, tidal waves in New York flood the city and then turn into a massive ice block within hours), it does present some genuine scientific information about ocean circulation, ice core sampling and past climate shifts. The film has been broadly welcomed by scientists as a way to raise awareness about the importance of climate change issues. The UK is taking the lead in rapid climate change research. A £20 Million Rapid Climate Change programme (known as RAPID for short) is being funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The aim of RAPID is to determine the probability of rapid climate change and its likely impact. For the first time, a monitoring system is being set up to monitor changes in the North Atlantic overturning circulation (which is associated with but not quite the same as the Gulf Stream). The UK research vessel RRS Discovery has recently deployed an array of moorings across the N. Atlantic Ocean. Present understanding would suggest that rapid climate change over the next decade is a low probability event, but should it happen, its impact on Western European economy and society would be serious. Hence, we need to improve our knowledge of the processes involved and narrow the uncertainties on the prediction of potential future rapid climate change. That is exactly what the RAPID programme aims to do. _________________________________________________________ Dr Christine Gommenginger Laboratory for Satellite Oceanography (LSO) James Rennell Division for Ocean Circulation and Climate Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC) Southampton, SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom Tel (direct): +44 (0)2380 596411 Fax: +44 (0)2380 596400 [1]http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/ Assistant Science Co-ordinator for NERC RAPID Climate Change Programme [2]http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/ _________________________________________________________ __________________________________________ Dr Sandy Tudhope, School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, Edinburgh University, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, Scotland, U.K. Tel: +44 131 650 8508 (direct) +44 131 650 4842 (secretary) Fax: +44 131 668 3184 e-mail: Sandy.Tudhope@ed.ac.uk -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/