date: Mon May 22 11:42:08 2000 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: UKCIP to: "Jenkins, Geoff" Geoff, Sounds good. A couple of other things come immediately to mind: - we would like to do some drought indicators, more thoroughly than last time, using some indicator like length of dry spells or a Palmer Drought Index; - we now have 6 SRES emissions scenarios, compared to the draft 4 (in the final SRES report, A1 has three variants). We would intend to present some scaled results for all six, although the greatest detail will be A2 and B2. - it will necessary to have stronger statements on THC and WAIS collapse given the interest from last time. For WAIS there is the DETR-commissioned expert review study; will there be new stuff from HadCM3 re. THC ready within 12 months time? We are still waiting for the contract to come through. Mike At 14:25 19/05/00 +0100, you wrote: >Mike > >We have been thinking about the analysis of the UKCIP RCM runs, and what >might go into the next UKCIP report, in addition to the standard plots and >tables. We intend here to concentrate on the two areas we have already done >a fair amount on, ie predictions of changes in winds/storms, storm surges >and ppn. It is in these areas that the improvements resulting from not only >use of the RCM but also the intermediate AGCM are likely to be felt most. >Jason will look at changes in storm surges with meteorology and SLR - the >SLR to be as calculated by the coupled GCM for A2 and B2, and as derived by >you for other SRES and other climate sensitivities. As soon at the RCM >ensembles are ready, we would use the first 6 months of 2001 to do an >analysis of this, so that text and diagrams can be produced in time to go >into the UKCIP2001 booklet/CD. > >Cheers > >Geoff > >Geoff Jenkins >Head, Climate Prediction Programme >Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research >The Met. Office >BRACKNELL RG12 2SZ >UK >gjjenkins@meto.gov.uk >Tel: +44 (0) 1344 85 6653 >Fax: +44 (0) 1344 85 4898 >http://www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html > >