cc: Popa Ionel , Phil Jones , Keith Briffa , Simon Tett , Gabi Hegerl , "Gerald R. North" , Claudia Timmreck , Stephan Lorenz , Sandy Tudhope , "raymond s. bradley" date: Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:44:51 +0000 from: Thomas Crowley subject: Medieval9 to: Bo Vinther Hi Bo, just to whet your appetite of our new product, here is an updated reconstruction of 30-90N temperatures (land) for 994-2007 (I wanted to focus on annual data to validate new volcano simulations being run by some modelling groups...) this simulation incorporates several features not previously included new data from Alberta (Canada) - (Luckman extended record) Alaska (D'Arrigo-Wilson) Carpathian region (Popa, CD this year) Mongolia (some of the finally released Jacoby data) Alps (Jan Espers work) the method combines long reconstructions from nearby sites of Yamal and Polar Urals in order not to overweight one region I only use sites that have records extending continuously from 994-1960 - calibrated with instrumental data over interval 1880-1960 (r=0.64, error = 0.25 C) the nine sites have very nice spacing - White Mtns (Nevada), Alberta, Alaska, Scandinavia, Alps (SudTirol), Carpathians (region we never had before - big hole), West Siberia, East Siberia (Taimyr), and Mongolia would be nice to have an annualized time series from China, but so far cannot track one down used 30-90N (land) because that is where the best paleo data - that is where we can best validate volcano simulations, and, in general, most people still live on land - somemore more useful metric than global temp. note approximate 2.5 C range in temperature from depth of Little Ice Age to present (also have extended instrumental series to 2007 - thank you Phil) - pretty big zero line represents Phil's calibration interval for instrumental data (Phil - 1930-1960?) note only ONE year rises above Phil's zero reference level -- AD 1031 - beginning about 1920 values consistently rise above that, therefore supporting Gabi's interpretation of detectable global warming signal by mid-20th century sending this out to others for any comments/questions - when we get the annualized Greenland O18 we will be done, unless someone knows of a reliable annual time series from China (one published last week in Science was unfortunately biannual) with regards, Tom ps 1258 cooling only about 0.5C, supporting conclusions from work I am doing with the Hamburg group that large flux at that time was associated with increased particle size, which led to increased absorption of longwave radiation and damping of cooling signal (which should have been 10X Pinatubo) -- The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in Scotland, with registration number SC005336.