date: Wed, 15 Jan 1997 12:40:24 +0100 from: Michael Williams subject: project proposal to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Greetings. I am faxing you now a brief letter of support. The person handling the Dutch CD on climate change science and policy modelling is Yvo de Boer, at the Directorate Air and Energy, Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, y.y.deboer@dle.dgm.minvron.nl, tel. 31 70 3394386, fasx 3391310. I'm sure he would be pleased to speak with you. In a couple weeks we will republish our updated 30-sheet dossier on climate change; I've recently drafted a summary sheet, if you have a few mintues to review, please do (all underlying sheets already reviewed by several IPCC experts each). Best regards, Michael. Information Sheet 1 An introduction to climate change Human activity is releasing key greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is produced when fossil fuels are burned and forests are cut down. Methane and nitrous oxide are emitted from agricultural activities, changes in land use, and other sources. CFCs and other gases are released by industrial processes, while ozone in the lower atmosphere is generated by automobile exhaust fumes. Rising levels of greenhouse gases are expected to cause rapid climate change. By absorbing infrared radiation, these gases control natural energy flows through the climate system. The climate must somehow adjust to a "thicker blanket" of greenhouse gases in order to maintain the balance between energy arriving from the sun and energy escaping back into space. Climate models predict that the global temperature will rise by about 1-3.5°C by the year 2100. This projection is based on current emissions trends and assumes that no efforts are made to limit greenhouse gases. It contains many uncertainties, particularly about the scale and impacts of climate change at the regional level. The climate does not respond immediately to greenhouse gas emissions, so climate change will continue for many decades after atmospheric concentrations have stabilized. Meanwhile, the balance of the evidence suggests that the climate may already be responding to past emissions. Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on the global environment. In general, the faster the climate changes, the greater will be the risk of damage. The mean sea level is expected to rise 15-95 cm by the year 2100, causing flooding of low-lying areas and other damage. Climatic zones (and thus ecosystem and agricultural zones) could shift towards the poles by 150-550 km in the mid-latitude regions. Forests, deserts, rangelands, and other unmanaged ecosystems would face new climatic stresses. As a result, many will decline or fragment, and individual species will become extinct. Human society will face new risks and pressures. Food security is unlikely to be threatened at the global level, but some regions are likely to experience food shortages and hunger. Water resources will be affected as precipitation and evaporation patterns change around the world. Physical infrastructure will be damaged, particularly by sea-level rise and by extreme weather events. Economic activities, human settlements, and human health will experience many direct and indirect effects. The poor and disadvantaged are the most vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change. People and ecosystems will need to adapt to future climatic regimes. Past and current emissions have already committed the earth to some degree of climate change in the 21st century. Adapting to these effects will require a good understanding of socio-economic and natural systems, their sensitivity to climate change, and their inherent ability to adapt. Many strategies are available for promoting adaptation. Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will demand a major effort. Based on current trends, the growth in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions is expected to result in the equivalent of a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 concentrations by 2030, and a trebling by 2100. Freezing global CO2 emissions at their current levels would postpone CO2-doubling to 2100. Emissions would eventually have to fall to about 30% of their current levels for concentrations to stabilize at doubled-CO2 levels sometime in the future. Given an expanding world economy and growing populations, this would require dramatic improvements in energy efficiency and fundamental changes in other economic sectors. The international community is tackling this challenge through the Climate Change Convention. Adopted in 1992, the Convention seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at safe levels. Some 165 countries are Parties to this agreement. Developed countries are committed to taking measures aimed at returning their emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000; they have agreed to complete negotiations by December 1997 on emissions cuts for the first decades of the 21st century. Developed countries are also committed to promoting financial and technological transfers to developing countries to help them address climate change. Meanwhile, all Parties are gathering information on their national emissions and developing strategies for adapting to and minimizing climate change. Many options are available in the short- and medium-term for limiting emissions. Policymakers can promote energy efficiency and other climate-friendly trends in both the supply and consumption of energy. Key energy consumers include industry, houses and offices, transport, and farming. This can be achieved in large part by providing an appropriate economic and regulatory framework for consumers and investors. Policies should be cost-effective. "No regrets" solutions that make economic and environmental sense irrespective of climate change. They can greatly reduce emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) by encouraging the best current and future technologies. Changes in practices, from better urban transport planning to personal habits such as turning out the lights, are also important. Taxes, regulatory standards, tradable emissions permits, information programmes, voluntary programmes, and the phase-out of counterproductive subsidies can all play a role. Energy efficiency gains of 10-30% above baseline trends can be realized over the next 20-30 years at no net cost. Some researchers believe that much greater gains are also feasible during this time and beyond. Improvements over the baseline can be achieved with current knowledge and today’s best technologies in all major economic sectors. In the longer term, it is possible to move close to a zero-emissions industrial economy – with its innumerable environmental and economic benefits. Reducing uncertainties about climate change, its impacts, and the costs of various response options is vital. In the meantime, it will be necessary to balance concerns about risks and damages with concerns about costs and economic development. The prudent response to climate change, therefore, is to adopt a portfolio of actions aimed at controlling emissions, adapting to impacts, and encouraging scientific, technological, and socio-economic research. +-----------------------------------------------------------+ | Michael Williams (Mr.) Voice:(41-22)979 9242/4 | | Information Unit for Conventions Fax: (41-22)797 3464 | | UN Environment Programme Email: michael.williams | | Geneva Executive Center, C.P.356 @unep.ch | | 1219 Chatelaine, Switzerland http://www.unep.ch | +-----------------------------------------------------------+