cc: ppn@nerc.ac.uk,cvy@nerc.ac.uk,cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk date: Fri, 24 Jan 2003 18:27:31 +0000 from: Mike Hulme subject: Re: RAPID modelling subgroup to: Meric Srokosz ,lkeigwin@whoi.edu, plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de,ewwo@bas.ac.uk,r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk, maria.noguer@defra.gsi.gov.uk,mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk,haugan@gfi.uib.no, studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk,B.Turrell@marlab.ac.uk,rwood@meto.gov.uk, sfbtett@meto.gov.uk,j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk,p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk, j.lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk,jym@soc.soton.ac.uk,pc@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk,k.briffa@uea.ac.uk Dear Meric, Although I was not present during this earlier discussion, might I now feed in a comment to this discussion from an "end-user" perspective (as we - Tyndall - have been called!), that a focused (i.e., delivery-led) modelling activity that helped address one, two or all three of the IPCC TAR cited deficiencies (as mentioned in my presentation on Wednesday to the kick-off meeting), namely: "whether an irreversible collapse in the THC is likely or not, or at what threshold it might occur and what the climate implications could be. " would be a valuable contribution of RAPID to the policy/scenario community, both in the UK and internationally. A number of modelling strategies might help deliver this of course - from full complexity to low complexity models, or mixed-mode modelling - but I think it would be a very useful exercise. Mike At 12:21 23/01/03 +0000, Meric Srokosz wrote: Dear Steering Committee One of the decisions made at the last SC meeting was to put aside £0.5M for modelling activities, but there was no time to firm up what this money is to be used for. This e-mail is to try to do that "firming up" (apologies for not getting to this sooner, as a number of you have asked me what is happening). The state of play is as follows: a) I have approached Julia, Jochem, Paul and Richard to be members of the subgroup and they have agreed. b) from the discussion at the meeting, I think that the task of the subgroup is two-fold: 1) to ensure that a suitable hierarchy of models is available for use within RAPID (this particularly related to objective 5 of the science plan) 2) to ensure that the various modelling activities in RAPID are integrated. c) with regard to data / model synthesis (objective 4), the data subgroup recommended (and the SC agreed the recommendation at the last meeting) that this should be one focus of the 2nd AO. Therefore, it seems that the modelling subgroup should not have a strong emphasis on this at this stage. I guess that the SC needs to approve the subgroup membership and agree that the proposed tasks (b above) are the correct ones for the group to pursue on behalf of the SC and RAPID. It would be helpful to have your response / views by Thursday 6th Feb (2 weeks today), so that I can press on with arranging a subgroup meeting soon and get this aspect of RAPID underway. Regards, Meric -- Dr. Meric Srokosz, Room 254/43,Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC) Empress Dock, Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK Tel:+44-(0)23-80596414 (direct line); Fax: +44-(0)23-80596400 e-mail: mas@soc.soton.ac.uk or M.Srokosz@soc.soton.ac.uk [1]http://www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/SAT/pers/mas.html Science Coordinator NERC Rapid Climate Change Programme [2]http://rapid.nerc.ac.uk/