date: Fri Jun 11 10:40:08 2004 from: Mike Hulme subject: RE: UKCIP review to: "Jenkins, Geoff" , "Horrocks, Lisa (GA)" , "Geoff Jenkins (E-mail)" Lisa, I support Geoff's comments here. We used what we thought were the best available estimates from Shennan (I entered into some discussion with him at the time about this). If there is anything that the geological community regard as "better" we can use them in the future. I think Dawson is nit-picking - but then again, if there are new estimates let's be aware of them, Mike At 18:01 09/06/2004 +0100, Jenkins, Geoff wrote: Lisa Looks like he is criticising the UKCIP02 (ie our) estimates of SLR. We did make a correction for vertical land movement based on the only info available (pers comm Ian Shennan at Durham University). For the BIC report I used a published paper by Shennan (not available in time for UKCIP02). I would be happy to consider any better analysis or prediction of vertical land movement, but I would be very surprised if the difference between Dawson's and Shennan's estimates of it was significant compared to the huge uncertainty in global-mean SLR (9-69cm), and especially the uncertainty in regional SLR. Can you get hold of the report from him or from SNH? You are likley to have more luck than us, I suspect. I recall a few months ago addressing a similar question from Shetland (I think) via Alaster Montgomery (Scot Exec) - to which I gave much the same reply, ie if you can find a better estimate of local land movement than grab it and add it to SLR. Cheers Geoff -----Original Message----- From: Horrocks, Lisa (GA) [[1]mailto:lisa.horrocks@DEFRA.GSI.GOV.UK] Sent: 09 June 2004 17:29 To: Geoff Jenkins (E-mail); 'm.hulme@uea.ac.uk' Subject: FW: UKCIP review Geoff, Mike, I received this email earlier, provoked I think by the fact that we are currently tendering for a review of UKCIP. I'd be grateful for your view on what Alastair has said - it is unclear to me whether he is criticising the regional scoping studies that UKCIP facilitated, or the UKCIP02 scenarios themselves. Regards, Lisa Lisa Horrocks Global Atmosphere Division Defra 3/A2 Ashdown House 123 Victoria Street London SW1E 6DE Tel: 020 7082 8162 Fax: 020 7082 8151 lisa.horrocks@defra.gsi.gov.uk [2]www.defra.gov.uk -----Original Message----- From: A. DAWSON [[3]mailto:GEX014@coventry.ac.uk] Sent: 09 June 2004 11:18 To: Horrocks, Lisa (GA) Subject: UKCIP review Dear Lisa, Just a note to say that my own view was that UKCIP was particularly weak wrt its regional estimates of future sea level rise. In particular, little attention was given in respect of Scotland to the influence of glacio-isostatic deformation on future vertical land movements. I summarised this information in an earlier commissioned report for Scottish Natural Heritage (reference attached here). Yours sincerely, Alastair Dawson Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. Its unauthorised use, disclosure, storage or copying is not permitted. If you have received it in error, please destroy all copies and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes.