date: Tue, 22 Apr 1997 08:06:10 +0100 from: Mick Kelly subject: Fw: From WCMC to: Mike Hulme ---------- > From: Jim Paine > To: m.kelly@uea.ac.uk > Subject: Re: Project thoughts > Date: 16 April 1997 18:54 > > > Dear Mick > > I've put together a draft project concept, hopefully inserted into this > email. As we have already briefly touched upon, I'd be very grateful if > you could review this, in particualr with respect to (i) the basic > credibility, soundness and practicality of the idea and (ii) the extent > (and cost) of CRU's involvement. > > For example, is it possible/realistic for CRU to provide Arc-Info files of > GCM results, and is it realistic to simply overlay/intersect that with our > GIS files of say, forest cover? > > Is it defensible to take this very simple approach to say that 'this piece > of the Earth's surface is going to experience climate change and that is a > bad thing'? > > Is my interpretation of the outcome of Kyoto (optimistic/business as > usual/pessimistic) realistic, and can we actually work on the tolerance > levels (0.01 degree/0.1degree and 0.3 degree per decade) I mention in the > proposal? > > > Staff time and costs - is 5-10 days CRU time at 300/day in the right ball > park? > > Is the whole approach, to produce something simple, bright and cheerful > (or depressing) a useful input to the Kyoto meeting (probably backed by a > WWF press conference)? > > What are your thoughts on doing GIS analysis in Norwich - can we share the > GIS load? > > We have an internal project review board meeting in the next couple of > weeks, so if you or Mike Hulme have any thought please let us know, say by > some time next week - many thanks > > best wishes, Jim > > > Project concept > > The impact of climate change on global biodiversity: an overview > > Objective > > To draw the attention of The Third Conference of the Parties to the > United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to the > potential impact of climate change on global biodiversity. > > Aims > > To identify global habitats, protected areas and areas important > for biodiversity conservation that will be subject to the most > severe climate change > > To identify areas that are likely to be subject to the least > climate change and which might act as Pleistocene Refugia. > > Justification > > The Third Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework > convention on Climate Change meets in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997 > in order to attempt to establish internationally agreed targets for > reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. State parties will > debate the depth of cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. The outcome > of this meeting therefore may lead to deep cuts in missions (an > 'optimistic' scenario), a renewed commitment to the current targets > ('business as usual') or a complete failure to establish any > emission targets at all (pessimistic). This project is designed to > show in simple and graphical terms what the consequences of these > three outcomes from the Conference will mean for the status of > global biodiversity in the next century. It is hoped that the > project results will encourage state parties to make commitments to > deep cuts in emissions in order to, inter alia, minimise the impact > on biodiversity. > > The concept of global climate change due to the emission of 'green > house' gases is now broadly accepted orthodoxy in the scientific > community. There is also a growing body of research that indicates > that many natural systems will be unable to adapt to the rapidly > changing climate conditions predicted by computer simulations. It > is assumed therefore that anthropogenically accelerated climate > change inevitably has negative and undesirable impacts on > biodiversity. (It is also assumed that the current distribution of > habitats is the 'normal' expression of current climate conditions.) > This project takes these two important concepts as established fact > and is designed to create a readily accessible and visual > illustration of the scale and intensity of the threat to global > biodiversity from climate change. > > The project does not attempt to cover the impact on specific > habitats or species in any detail nor does it attempt to predict > what the predicted natural ecosystem would be under the modified > climate regime. For example, WWF (1996) suggest that tropical > montane forest is sensitive to cloud cover and sunlight hours, > hurricane frequency and severity and drought frequency and annual > rainfall distribution. Climate models suggest these factors could > all change in the future, undermining the long term persistence of > these forests. Site-specific predictions have also bee made. A > long-term drying trend in central Panama appears to be leading to > major changes in forest composition and reduction in diversity. In > the rich tropical forests of Barro Colorado Island, several shrub > and tree species are heading for local extinction. > > In contrast, the project sets out to make a simple assessment of > whether or not ecosystems existing today will be subject to severe > climate change, [for example defined as a temperature change > greater than 0.01!C/decade ("WWF-tolerable"), >0.1!C/decade > ("tolerable") or 0.3!C/decade (GCM consensus)] and to review, at a > global level, the implications this could have for biodiversity > conservation. > > Using WCMC's unique global data sets and climate modelling data to > make assessments of the extent and severity impact of climate > change at the global level, the project will answer a number of > questions: > > Under three emission/climate change scenarios (optimistic/business > as usual/pessimistic): > > ! How much of the world's natural habitats will be subject to > severe climate stress? > > ! How many protected areas will be subject to severe climate > stress? > > ! How many of the world's known biodiversity 'hot spots' will be > subject to severe climate stress? > > ! Are there are regions that appear to facing lesser climate > change and are these suitable for biodiversity conservation, > for example through protected areas. > > Activities > > In collaboration with UEA-CRU, a number of suitable climate change > scenario data sets, in Arc-Info format, will be selected. > > The results of a number of climate change scenarios (reflecting the > three scenarios) will be overlain and compared to a series of > global biodiversity data layers using GIS. > > The biodiversity data layers will comprise: > > Global forest cover > Global protected areas networks > Global biodiversity 'hot spots': > Natural World Heritage properties > Centres of Plant Diversity > Endemic Bird Areas > > >From the intersection of these data layers, the following graphical > output will be produced: > > 1. A world map showing forests that will subject to severe > climate change, plus supporting statistics (type and area) > > 2. A world map showing major protected areas that will subject to > severe climate change plus supporting statistics (number and > area) > > 3. A world map showing biodiversity hotspots that will subject to > severe climate change plus supporting statistics (type and > area) > > 4. A world map showing those areas that are likely to be subject > to the least climate change and which could there fore act as > refuges. > > Output > > The output of the project will comprise a brief and visual report, > largely comprising maps with a brief discussion of the main > implications of the analysis. > > > Budget > > To be calculated, but roughly 5 days GIS/analysis per map, plus 3 > days for map production = 8*4 themes = 32 days > > ?5-10 days CRU time > > Report production: 10 days > > Printing costs, 5000 copies, c.14 pp report with colour maps: > #5,000 > > Shipping: #250 (wild guess) > > Assuming approximate staff cost of #300 per day, total = #15,600 > (+5,000+250)=#20,850 > > > Timing > > Project to be completed in time for distribution to participants at > the COP 3. > > Collaborators > WCMC, UEA-CRU, WWF > > ! > > -- > James R. Paine > Senior Research Officer > Protected Areas Unit > World Conservation Monitoring Centre > 219 Huntingdon Road > Cambridge > CB3 0DL > United Kingdom > > Tel (+) 1223 277 314 > Fax (+) 1223 277 136 > Email: jim.paine@wcmc.org.uk WWW: http://www.wcmc.org.uk