cc: c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk date: Wed Sep 24 09:20:07 2008 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: UKCIP08 launch delay to: "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" Kathryn, When I said no new diagrams, I had realised that we still need to do the spatial maps for section 4 of the WG report. As these won't be final till after BADC gets the final sets of change factors from MOHC (~Nov 17), the review of the WG report could be set in motion fairly soon. As to coming to London for a meeting with you and Geoff, this would depend on the date. I'm away most of the next two weeks and have lectures to give during the week of Oct 13. Rob Wilby would be a possible reviewer. He didn't seem to respond to the WG report in the earlier set of reviews. I guess I'm assuming the reviews will be done for the WG during October and/or November, as our text is near final but for section 4. I wouldn't want the reviews done over Christmas and into January, and neither would the reviewers. I'd forgotten about the EPSRC set of projects. Cheers Phil At 19:18 23/09/2008, Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA) wrote: Thanks Phil; Ive spoken to Roger who is going to give me a list (much of which is through the EPSRCs new research programme I think)..we have a couple of internal projects that will get caught as well. Well be scrapping a side event we had planned to do at the COP in Poznan and Ill need to check what MOHC want to do about the RMS event as UKCIP08 was going to be a big part of it. Also have noted your views on the peer review. I know this wont be popular with you or MOHC for understandable reasons but will be helpful for the reputation of the project overall and may save work for after launch if we have additional peer review to back us up in case of challenges...though I know it will mean more work before launch. Im going to meet with Geoff and co to discuss how to go about this. Do you want to be involved in that meeting? The project team all want to keep ukcip08 but directors in defra seem to think Ministers will want it to be called ukcip09, so thatll be an interesting one to mediate! Kind Regards, Kathryn From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 23 September 2008 16:43 To: Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA); Ag Stevens; Anna Steynor; Bryan Lawrence; Butt, Adrian (CEOSA); Chris Kilsby; Colin Harpham; David Sexton; Geoff Jenkins; Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA); Jason Lowe; Kevin Marsh; Mark Elkington; Paul Bowyer; Phil James; Richard Westaway; Roger Street; Sarah Callaghan Subject: Re: UKCIP08 launch delay Kathryn, There are a few contracts from organizations like the EA, UKWIR (and probably others - UKCIP should have a complete list) who have put in place consultants (some of which include some of us) to explain to their organizations what UKCIP08 is all about. They all have timetables and schedules based on the Nov 20 launch. Checking my diary - I'm away Feb 2-5 in Geneva. Also I see I agreed to give a talk about the UKCIP08 WG to the Royal Meteorological Society on Feb 18 at a session Matt Collins is organizing. David, Roger and James down to talk at that as well. UKCIP08 sounds a lot better than UKCIP09! Cheers Phil At 15:43 23/09/2008, Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA) wrote: Dear all, MOHC have found a problem through their sensitivity testing with the calculation of the discrepancy term in that it is throwing out odd results for winter mean temperature in Scotland, proportion of dry days in Scotland and specific humidity. They have suggested to us that the best option for dealing with this is to try out another method of calculating the discrepancy which they believe will work better, and if it does, this will involve re-doing all of the PDFs given that the same discrepancy calculation is used across the board. Defra have agreed that this seems to be the most sensible approach, which will inevitably lead to a delay in the launch. Next steps therefore involve: - Me and MOHC coming up with a line to give out on the reason for the delay that we can all give out to people. Geoff is going to help me write this. This line will need to go the Ministers, then the steering group, then out more widely, so for now please dont pass on that the launch is delayed to anyone, before we have a standard line to give out. If you have to, just pretend its still 20^th November for now! We should have a line by tomorrow and let Ministers know a day or so afterwards so should be able to let the SG know this week. - I need an updated project plan from all of you combined to start to think about a new launch date. I have suggested February to colleagues here to test the water and there havent been huge cries of woe, but I need to know what you think is sensible first and we also want to wait to see the first results of MOHCs re-analysis before agreeing a new launch date. The sooner I can get a revised project plan the better. - We need to decide if we want to call the project UKCIP09. Thoughts? - Colleagues here are keen to now incorporate a peer review as we are not tied to the November launch deadline. Geoff and I have discussed ways of doing this before, which basically involve sending the methodology out to a few key experts and asking for comments within a 4 week period or so. - I need to check who is waiting for the data to inform research or policy so that we can deal with their needs. If you know of any projects that are waiting for the data please let me know. Thats a bit of a brain dump, but please ring me to discuss if you have any further queries especially about what work you should now be doing given that the PDFs are likely to change. Ill forward another email shortly with MOHCs suggested timing for re-doing the PDFs to help you plan your own timings. Kind Regards, Kathryn Kathryn Humphrey Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Team, Defra Zone 3F Ergon House, Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 3JR tel 0207 238 3362 fax 0207 238 3341 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) This email and any attachments is intended for the named recipient only. If you have received it in error you have no authority to use, disclose, store or copy any of its contents and you should destroy it and inform the sender. Whilst this email and associated attachments will have been checked for known viruses whilst within Defra systems we can accept no responsibility once it has left our systems. Communications on Defra's computer systems may be monitored and/or recorded to secure the effective operation of the system and for other lawful purposes. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------