cc: tar_la@earth.usgcrp.gov, tar_reved@earth.usgcrp.gov, wgii.bureau@earth.usgcrp.gov, ddokken@earth.usgcrp.gov date: Thu, 15 Oct 1998 18:24:21 -0500 from: ddokken@usgcrp.gov (Dave Dokken) subject: Approved WG3 TAR Outline to: tar_cla@earth.usgcrp.gov IPCC WORKING GROUP III THIRD ASSESSMENT REPORT OUTLINE Climate Change: Mitigation SUMMARY FOR POLICYMAKERS TECHNICAL SUMMARY Chapter 0: Introduction Road map to the report Chapter 1: Scope of the report Executive Summary 1.1 The historical context of climate change mitigation 1.2 Policy-relevant scientific questions 1.3 Development, sustainability and equity in climate change mitigation in different sectors: key social, behavioural, ecological and economic issues 1.4 Alternative development pathways (e.g. structural change, social development) 1.5 Decision-making frameworks: an introduction Chapter 2: Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios and implications Executive Summary 2.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR 2.2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: summary and differences with TAR 2.3 Scenarios: definitions, methodologies, advantages and limitations 2.4 Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation scenarios, including scenarios that lead to stabilisation of the concentration of GHGs, and the associated socio-economic and technological assumptions 2.5 Policy implications of scenarios: development, sustainability and equity, technological change, timing, flexibility, robustness of options, relationships Chapter 3: Technological and economic potential of GHG emissions reduction [Chapter 3 deals with agricultural emissions of GHGs, chapter 4 deals with GHG emissions from forestry and carbon sequestration. ] Executive Summary 3.1 Introduction: summary of the SAR, progress since the SAR, definitions, time frame, regional breakdown, link with scenarios 3.2 Drivers of technological change and innovation 3.2.1 Research, development and demonstration 3.2.2 Societal and institutional factors, including market creation 3.3 For each of the following sectors: 3.3.1 Buildings 3.3.2 Transport 3.3.3 Industry 3.3.4 Agriculture 3.3.5 Wastes 3.3.6 Energy supply, including non-renewable and renewable resources, physical CO2 removal [The following issues are covered: * Summary of SAR * Historic and future trends * Different greenhouse gases * New technological and other options, including social and behavioural issues, consumption patterns * Regional differences * Technical and economic potential] Chapter 4: Technological and economic potential of options to enhance, maintain and manage biological carbon reservoirs and geo-engineering Executive Summary 4.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR 4.2 Special Report on Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry: summary and relationship with SAR 4.3 Potential of terrestrial ecosystems to enhance sinks and mitigate CO2 emissions, taking into account competition with biofuel resources 4.4 Strategies: market and non-market options to enhance, maintain and manage biological carbon reservoirs 4.5 Socio-economic evaluation of mitigation options 4.6 Environmental evaluation of mitigation options, including influence on non-CO2 GHGs 4.7 Enhanced human-induced biological CO2 uptake in oceans and freshwater reservoirs and other types of geo-engineering Chapter 5: Barriers, opportunities and market potential of technologies and practices [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 3, 4 and 6] Executive Summary 5.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR 5.2 Summary of the Special Report on Technology Transfer 5.3 Financial, technological, political, legal, institutional, social and behavioural barriers and opportunities 5.4 Sector and technology-specific barriers, opportunities and market potential for the following sectors: 5.4.1 Buildings 5.4.2 Transport 5.4.3 Industry 5.4.4 Agriculture 5.4.5 Forestry 5.4.6 Wastes 5.4.7 Energy supply 5.5 Case studies illustrating barriers, opportunities as they are influenced by policies and measures (linking section with chapter 6) Chapter 6: Policies, measures and instruments [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 5, 8, and 9] Executive Summary 6.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR 6.2 National and international policy making context; relationships between national development policies and climate change mitigation: constraints, conflicts and "win-win" options 6.3 International policies and measures for mitigation 6.3.1 (combinations of) economic instruments, regulatory instruments, technology transfer, other 6.3.2 mechanisms contained in the articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Kyoto Protocol 6.3.3 social, behavioural, economic and institutional aspects, including equity, regional differences, investment patterns 6.4 National and sectoral policies and measures 6.4.1 (combinations of) economic instruments, regulatory instruments, voluntary agreements, R&D policies, innovation promotion, other 6.4.2 social, behavioural, economic and institutional aspects, including equity, regional differences 6.5 Interrelations between international and national policies, measures and instruments 6.6 Case studies illustrating barriers and opportunities as they are influenced by policies and measures (linking section with chapter 5) Chapter 7: Costing methodologies for mitigation (co-ordinated with WG-II) [This chapter should provide guidance to chapters 8 and 9. Methods for valuation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change and methods for costing of adaptation are addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.] Executive Summary 7.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since the SAR; coverage, definitions 7.2 Important elements of costing methodologies at micro, meso and macro scale: including discount rates, equity and development aspects, importance of baselines, "system boundaries", uncertainties, market failures and externalities, revenue recycling, valuation of ancillary benefits, "win-win" options, differences between theory and practice 7.3 Issues in cost methodologies, including effects on income, equity, employment, trade, inflation, interest rates, availability of capital 7.4 Different approaches to cost assessments: top-down models, sector models, bottom-up analyses, hybrid models Chapter 8: Global, regional and national costs and ancillary benefits of mitigation [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 2, 6, 7 and 9; valuation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change is addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.] Executive Summary 8.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR; coverage and definitions 8.2 Global, regional and national impacts of international mitigation policies and measures on such factors as (a) aggregate demand, terms of trade, employment, income distribution (b) social and environmental ancillary benefits 8.3 Global, regional and national impacts of domestic mitigation policies and measures on such factors as (as) aggregate demand, terms of trade, employment, income distribution, (b) social and environmental ancillary benefits 8.4 Spill-over effects: social, environmental and economic effects of measures in countries on other countries 8.5 Social, environmental and economic impacts of alternative pathways for meeting a range of concentration stabilisation levels 8.6 Discussion on why studies differ: influence of methods and baselines, the role of assumptions, including those on technology development Chapter 9: Sector costs and ancillary benefits of mitigation [This chapter should be closely co-ordinated with chapters 2, 6, 7 and 8; evaluation of benefits of avoided damage from climate change is addressed in TAR-WGII, the costs and benefits decision making context is addressed in TAR WG-III, chapter 10.] Executive Summary 9.1 Introduction: summary or SAR and progress since SAR 9.2 Economic, social, and environmental impacts of policies and measures on prices, economic output, employment competitiveness and trade relations at the sector and subsector level 9.3 Spill-over effects: social, environmental and economic effects of measures in countries on sectors in other countries 9.4 Social, environmental and economic impacts on sectors of alternative pathways for meeting a range of concentration stabilisation levels 9.5 Discussion on why studies differ: influence of methods and baselines, the role of assumptions, including those on technology transfer Chapter 10: Decision making frameworks (co-ordinated with WG-II) Executive Summary 10.1 Introduction: summary of SAR and progress since SAR, different decision making frameworks 10.2 Policy-relevant scientific questions in climate change response, e.g. * Relationships between adaptation and mitigation * Relationships between early and delayed response * Relationships between domestic mitigation and the use of international mechanisms such as those contained in the Articles 6, 12 and 17 of the Protocol * Mitigation by countries and sectors: equity and cost-effectiveness considerations * How can technology development, diffusion and transfer be facilitated to mitigate and adapt to climate change? 10.3 Decision analysis studies: e.g. cost-effectiveness, least cost, cost-benefit, tolerable windows/safe landing, risk management/decision making under uncertainty 10.4 Comparing available decision analyses with current decision making: global, regional and national implementation of the FCCC and implications of the Kyoto Protocol, Interaction with other objectives, Public and private sector decision making 10.5 Key aspects of decision making by looking at the literature beyond the economic and environmental sciences 10.6 Analysis of policy relevant scientific questions: integrating insights from different disciplines and Chapters 1-9 of TAR WG III