date: Tue Jan 27 13:23:35 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: Just for information to: chris.folland@metoffice.com, "Thomas R Karl" Dear Chris and Tom, Mike Mann sent me this whilst I was away in Geneva last week. I'm forwarding for your information. Mike has already submitted a reply (as you might expect). It was due out on Jan 27 (as it says), but Mike spotted that their Fig 3a is an altered version of what appeared in Science (Mann, 2002). This should delay it a few weeks. Mike has already been called by one reporter, so they have their media contacts working already (thinking it will come out on the AGU web site today). No idea how this got past the AGU reviewers. My inclination would be to ignore it. It does several things about the TAR - without referencing the relevant chapter. The data on the CRU web site are not accompanied by error bars. There is some text, stating what they say, but a clear reference to cite. I have a copy of Mike's reply if you're interested. He points out all the obvious things about filtering with examples from NHT and the NAO. You might be miffed by some of the snide comments about the TAR and filtering. I'm surprised the CRU data on the web site (which doesn't say it is the same as the TAR) is as close to the TAR as it is ! I've too much else on at the moment to consider replying. In the future I will make sure that filtering is adequately explained - I think I do this as did the TAR. I've not told Mike I've forwarded this to you, as he wanted it kept quiet for the time being. I thought you ought to see it and not be surprised when it does come out. Cheers Phil PS to Tom - in the light of Steve Schneider sending the MBH98 comment on MMO3 to MM to review, it is a bit odd of AGU not to send this to any of us. AGU does now have boxes for both suggested reviewers and people not to send it to ! Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------