date: Tue Dec 7 17:20:08 2004 from: Phil Jones subject: RE: something on new online. to: "Alex Kirby" Alex, Of course, I'll still talk. I was just looking at your items as the COP-10 is coming up very soon - could have started. I managed to stop the World Service doing anything on this lot (see below). Julian could see it was just pre-COP propaganda, and all the issues are being dealt with, some better than others. The report is not worth getting involved with as it is all the same sort of rubbish that these groups peddle at this time. Cheers Phil From: Julian Siddle [[1]mailto:julian.siddle@bbc.co.uk] Sent: 07 December 2004 11:01 To: c.young@uea.ac.uk Subject: Climate change Dear Cathy Young, Hi I was just speaking to Emma in your press office who suggested I send you an email. I am a radio producer with the BBC World Service responsible for science news coverage. I have received a press release, copied below, from a group which fundementally opposes the conventional views of climate change. Please could you show this to your colleagues in the climate research unit, I would be interested in their views on the assertions put forward in the release. Unfortunately I do not have the full report at present. Please could they comment on the assertions which follow the paragraph 'There are key issues that must be better understood if policy is to more closely match current knowledge levels. Examples of issues that are not adequately understood in the climate debate include:' I am hoping to produce a news report about this later today for broadcast after midnight. Please do give me a call with any questions. Many thanks Julian Julian Siddle BBC Science Radio Bush House London WC2B 4PH Tel: ++ 44 (0) 20 75572991 fax ++ 44 (0) 20 75573008 email: julian.siddle@bbc.co.uk web: <[2]file://www.bbc.co.uk> [3]www.bbc.co.uk STRICTLY EMBARGOED: 00:01 Wednesday, December 8th, 2004 News Release CLIMATE CHANGE CLAIMS UNDERMINED BY NEW ANGLO-AMERICAN RESEARCH New paper warns key scientific questions remain unanswered 8th December 2004: As the Government's Chief Scientist, Sir David King, today discusses with MPs the next steps in UK climate change policy, scientists have published new research that calls into question many of the scientific assumptions driving global climate change policy. The report, produced by the George C. Marshall Institute in Washington DC and the Scientific Alliance in London, suggests that calls for global action on climate change are often based on poor or uncertain science. In particular, the report sets out nineteen key questions and assumptions underpinning the climate change debate and global climate policy, highlighting a number of important areas where scientific uncertainty remains, as well as those where sound scientific evidence throws the Kyoto process into doubt. Publication of the report also coincides with the 10th Conference of the Parties (COP) taking place in Buenos Aires this week - the first COP since the ratification of the Kyoto protocol. Mark Adams, Director of the Scientific Alliance, said: "The debate over the state of climate science and what it tells us about past and future climate has been going on for at least 15 years. It is not close to a conclusion, in spite of assertions to the contrary. The purpose of our paper is to subject the fundamentals of climate change science to the highest level of scientific scrutiny and to highlight those areas where further research is still needed. " William O'Keefe, President of the George C. Marshall Institute, said: "Climate change science has fallen victim to heated political and media rhetoric and as a consequence, the quality of science and rigors of the scientific process have suffered. The result is extensive misunderstanding over what we know about the climate system and what influences it, and the impact of human activity on future climate. The world will be ill served if global climate policy, planned out at events such as COP10, continues to be driven by politicized science instead of scientific facts and reality. The aim of our paper is to go some way towards restoring accuracy and clarity to the debate." There are key issues that must be better understood if policy is to more closely match current knowledge levels. Examples of issues that are not adequately understood in the climate debate include: - The assertion that there is a direct causal relationship between increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other green house gases, and increased temperature - during the 20th century, greenhouse gases CO2 rose steadily, while temperatures rose fell and rose in a pattern that showed no direct relation to increased greenhouse gases. - Whether global warming over the past century is unique to the past 1000 years or longer - the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that the warming of the 20th century is unique to at least the past 1000 years was based on a study (by Mann, et al.) that has been shown to be incorrect by three studies recently published in peer-reviewed literature. These studies show that many parts of the world have experienced warmer temperatures at some time during the last 1000 years than they did during the later part on the 20th century. - The influence of the sun on global climate - new studies indicate that changes in the Sun's magnetic field may be responsible for shorter-term changes in climate, including for much of the 20th century. - The influence of human activity on the possibility of abrupt climate change - all available evidence indicates that 'ice ages' are caused by changes in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth's surface rather than changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. - The accuracy of climate change modelling - the estimates from current climate change models are highly uncertain and large differences between the results from different modelling methods remain. No climate model has been scientifically validated - Understanding about major climate processes and their importance in terms of understanding future climate change - key uncertainties about the influence of ocean circulation, the hydrological (water) cycle, cloud formation and the properties of aerosols on the climate system remain. The cumulative effect of these and other uncertainties in our understanding of the climate system is an inability to accurately model the climate system and therefore accurately project future climate. - ENDS - Copies of the report can be obtained from: <[4]http://www.scientific-alliance.org> [5]http://www.scientific-alliance.org For further information and interviews, please contact: Mark Adams, Director, Scientific Alliance: 07963 834412 William O'Keefe, President of the George C. Marshall Institute: 001 202 296 9655 Notes to Editors * The George C. Marshall Institute, a non-profit research group founded in 1984, is dedicated to fostering and preserving the integrity of science in the policy process. The Institute conducts technical assessments of scientific developments with a major impact on public policy and communicates the results of its analyses to the press, Congress and the public. * The Scientific Alliance, formed in 2001, is a non-profit membership-based organisation based in London. The Alliance brings together both scientists and non-scientists committed to rational discussion and debate on the challenges facing the environment today. * The House of Commons Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee is hearing evidence from Sir David King, Government's Chief Scientific Adviser at 15.00 The terms of reference for the inquiry are as follows: to examine the policies of the United Kingdom Government to address the challenge of climate change, and also the Government's activities in the international arena to drive forward the international response to the issue. The Committee will focus on a number of points, including: - The forthcoming review of the UK Climate Change Programme during 2004-05, looking particularly at what new policies might be needed to keep the United Kingdom on track in reducing all greenhouse gas emissions. - The role that the Government will play in 2005 as Chair of the G8 and as President of the European Council in driving forward the Kyoto and post-Kyoto agendas. The nineteen questions addressed by the report are as follows: 1. How is the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) determined and how accurate are the measurements? 2. How much of today's atmosphere is CO2? 3. What has been the history of atmospheric CO2 concentrations? 4. Do we know why CO2 concentrations are rising? 5. What do we know about the relation between increases in the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases and temperature? 6. If temperature changes cannot be correlated with the increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, what is causing them? 7. What influence does the Sun have on global climate? 8. What is known with a high degree of certainty about the climate system and human influence on it? 9. What major climate processes are uncertain and how important are these processes to understanding future climate? 10. What tools are available to separate the effects of the different drivers that contribute to climate change? 11. How accurate are climate models? 12. What is the basis for forecasts of large temperature increases and adverse climate impacts between 1990 and 2100? 13. How accurate are the parameters used in climate models? 14. How well have models done in "back-casting" past climate? 15. Is global warming over the past century unique in the past 1000 years of longer? 16. How much does the global climate vary naturally? 17. What do we know about the extent of human influence on climate? To what extent has temperature increase since 1975 been the result of human activities? 18. Could climate change abruptly? 19. Will sea level rise abruptly? You have received this email on behalf of the Scientific Alliance, a UK-based a non-profit membership-based campaign organisation which brings together both scientists and non-scientists committed to rational discussion and debate on the challenges facing the environment today. If you do not wish to receive press releases or other information from the Scientific Alliance, please notify us by emailing <[6]mailto:media@scientific-alliance.org> media@scientific-alliance.org with the subject 'unsubscribe' and we will remove your address from our list. The Scientific Alliance Golden Cross House 8 Duncannon Street London WC2N 4JF Tel: 07963 834412 <[7]http://www.scientific-alliance.org> [8]www.scientific-alliance.org [9]http://www.bbc.co.uk/ This e-mail (and any attachments) is confidential and may contain personal views which are not the views of the BBC unless specifically stated. If you have received it in error, please delete it from your system. Do not use, copy or disclose the information in any way nor act in reliance on it and notify the sender immediately. Please note that the BBC monitors e-mails sent or received. Further communication will signify your consent to this. At 16:49 07/12/2004, you wrote: Oh Phil, what can I say? I haven't even read the damned piece yet. All I can say is I'm sorry -- I'm besieged by angry loonies at the moment, baying for my blood because of what I wrote. I'll send this on to my guvnor, who perhaps will have something more useful than me to say on this. I hope you'll still talk to me despite this. -----Original Message----- From: Phil Jones [[10]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk] Sent: 07 December 2004 16:42 To: Alex Kirby Subject: something on new online. Alex, <[11]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4066189.stm> I know it's a viewpoint, but what is said defies logic. It wouldn't be so funny if he hadn't said climatologists need to go on a logic course ! How does he expect the Dutch to plan to move if they don't try to model the climate ! Let nature take its course. I thought you exercised some caution with crackpots. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---- [12]http://www.bbc.co.uk/ This e-mail (and any attachments) is confidential and may contain personal views which are not the views of the BBC unless specifically stated. If you have received it in error, please delete it from your system. Do not use, copy or disclose the information in any way nor act in reliance on it and notify the sender immediately. Please note that the BBC monitors e-mails sent or received. Further communication will signify your consent to this. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ----------------------------------------------------------------------------