date: Wed, 22 Oct 2008 15:00:57 +0100 from: "Sarah Raper" subject: Re: sea level from AR4 models to: "Tim Osborn" Dear Tim, Oh, is that all.... It is because even Malte's latest MAGICC 6.0 does not do well expansion well, that I am now looking at it with a view to getting it good (and writing a paper). I think it is doable eventually, however, and you are welcome to help if you like. It will involve analysing the 3-D ocean data. I do have Jonathan's AOGCM data, that is what I was plotting in plot I left on your desk. It is also he that you should approach for AR4 total SLR - but I am not sure that he ever did timeseries, I dimly remember it was just for a couple of future years (time snaps). All available details (clues) are in the appendix you mention. Since SLR projections are in my opinion without much foundation you could either 1) stick strictly to IPCC (low estimate no dynamics for icesheets) 2) go with Ramsdorf - larger estimate based just on surface temps 3) or update of Ramsdorf - I forget author. How come you promised such a thing? Best, S Dr Sarah Raper Senior Research Fellow Centre for Air Transport and the Environment (CATE) Manchester Metropolitan University Faculty of Science & Engineering John Dalton East Building Chester Street Manchester M1 5GD United Kingdom +44(0)161 2471596 Before acting on this email or opening any attachments you should read the Manchester Metropolitan University's email disclaimer available on its website http://www.mmu.ac.uk/emaildisclaimer >>> Tim Osborn 20/10/2008 16:27 >>> Hi Sarah, you know I'm using global-mean temperature changes from MAGICC-AR4 emulations of the 19 AR4 GCMs to drive my pattern scaling in ClimGen? Well, we also need to information about associated sea level rise. For thermal expansion, there is also MAGICC output. But do you consider these to be too poor to use? If you think they're not good enough, then perhaps I can get hold of the data actually calculated from the AR4 GCMs for thermal expansion (global means) -- i.e. those plotted in fig. 10.31 which I've attached here. Who would I ask for those data? Jonathan Gregory? Finally, is there any data for the ice-melt component of SLR? Either from your existing model (i.e. not from post-AR4 work) or from the sensitivity & scaling relationships reported in AR4 (e.g. Appendix 10.A.2/3)? Many thanks for any suggestions! Cheers Tim P.S. Did you get my email about an exam question? Keith said you'd be delighted to help! ;-)