cc: "Jones, Richard" , "Mitchell, John FB" date: Fri, 16 Nov 2001 08:54:39 +0000 from: "Jenkins, Geoff" subject: RE: UKCIP to: 'Mike Hulme' Mike DEFRA now seem to be happy about March. UKCIP are being really pushy for Feb, but its only because a couple of their regional groups are waiting to get started. But it turns out that neither of these will actually be doing real quantitative assessments, they just want the new maps to make the usual motherhood statements. I do not beleive that this is as important as gettin the scenarios done right. I made this point to DEFRA yesterday (in front of Merylyn) and it was accpted. I pointed out that there was no point having a reviwe process if we didnt allow ourselves time to attend to the comments. Our real bosses are DEFRA not UKCIP! The main important changes from UKCIP98 are: (a) all UK dries in summer, summer S UK drying is twice as bad, and annual change is drying not wetting. (b) The increase in heavy rain days is much less (<50%) than it was in 98 (200%). I think the latter change is one we are going to have to manage properly, as water bodies and EA have pretty much accepted the x3 story (which was also borne out from HadRM2, ie the interim scenarios). I am concerned we have enough time to explain these differences, and their implications for confidence in UKCIP02, properly. Cheers Geoff > -----Original Message----- > From: Mike Hulme [SMTP:m.hulme@uea.ac.uk] > Sent: 15 November 2001 13:24 > To: Jenkins, Geoff > Subject: RE: UKCIP > > I agree, but we are getting very mixed signals from DEFRA (delay) and > UKCIP > (hurry) about the possible launch date. I am concerned from our side to > do > the best to stick to our original target - end of February - and leave it > up to others to find reasons for delay or not. > > Let's see where we stand once we have some external review comments. This > > may influence our timing. > > Mike > > At 08:47 15/11/01 +0000, you wrote: > >OK, will email. I'm inclined to say to DEFRA (and will do) that if we > need > >to have more time to get it right, lets take it. There is no deadline > which > >means it has to be out in Feb or Mar. > > > >Geoff > > > > > -----Original Message----- > > > From: f037 [SMTP:M.Hulme@uea.ac.uk] > > > Sent: 14 November 2001 21:48 > > > To: Jenkins, Geoff > > > Subject: RE: UKCIP > > > > > > OK, Monday at a push, but only if they're emailed - we really need to > get > > > the > > > review draft DHL'd abroad that day to stick to our timetable (although > I > > > still > > > guess DEFRA will delay the launch). > > > > > > The more subsets of comments by Thursday/Friday the better. I can't > do > > > any > > > more work on the report after Monday for 2 weeks. > > > > > > We enjoyed Debbie Hudson's visit here and to hear about the RCM over > > > southern > > > Africa. > > > > > > Mike > > > > > > >===== Original Message From "Jenkins, Geoff" > > > > > > ===== > > > >mike > > > > > > > >we just got the second tranche of the UKCIP report > > > > > > > >we will look at it straight away, but I would like a little more time > > > > > > > >can I assume that comments by monday would still be OK? > > > > > > > >geoff > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >Dr Geoff Jenkins > > > >Head, Climate Prediction Programme > > > >Hadley Centre > > > >Met Office > > > >London Road Bracknell Berkshire RG12 2SY United Kingdom > > > >Tel: +44 (0)1344 856653 PA:+44 (0)1344 856656 Fax: +44 (0)1344 > > > 854898 > > > >E-mail: geoff.jenkins@metoffice.com > > > >http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre