cc: Phil Jones date: Fri, 6 Dec 1996 13:32:02 +1000 (EST) from: Convention Network subject: Re: re-submitted other two abstracts to: yhduan@fudan.ihep.ac.cn REPLY TO: Prof Zeng-Hao Qin CC: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK DATE: 4 December, 1996 RE: IAMAS/IAPSO - JULY 1997 Thank you for submitting your abstract for the 1997 Joint Assemblies of IAMAS-IAPSO. Title: Sea Level Change for Shanghai and Its Adjacent Waters Session Name: Palaeoclimate in the southern hemisphere Session Code: JMP17 Abstract Number: JMP17k Paper Status: Under Review Convenor: Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK A copy of your abstract have been forwarded to the Convenor, Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK. You will be notified in March 1997 of your abstract acceptance/non acceptance. Please note your abstract number is to be used as a reference for all further communication. If you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact me. NOTE TO Phil Jones, University of East Anglia, UK: If you receive any abstracts direct please ensure they are forwarded to Convention Network. Lucy Krelle At 02:52 PM 11/28/96 BST-8, you wrote: > Nov.28,1996 > > Dear Mr. Krelle, > > Thank you for your reply. > You say you haven't received my other two abstracts.In fact I sent >them as an attachment document in the form of Word-perfect in the last >e-mail to you.Here I send them as Text form,named > > a.Sea level change for Shanghai and its adjacent waters.(JPM17) > --------- > b.Impact of sea level rise on the tide,storm surge and probable > highest water level in Shanghai.(IP12) > ------ > If there are any question,trouble you to contact with me. > With best regards, > > Qin Zeng-hao > >-------------------------------------------------------------------- >-------------------------------------------------------------------- > > SEA LEVEL CHANGE FOR SHANGHAI AND > ITS ADJACENT WATERS > > ZENG-HAO QIN , YONGPING LI AND YIHONG DUAN > (SHANGHAI TYPHOON INSTITUTE, SHANGHAI,CHINA) > > > Utilizing the historical tide-gauge records(1912-1993) >and statistical approaches, two issues,the >characteristics of the annually mean sea level changes in >the last decades and their long-term amplitudes >estimation in the coming years for Shanghai, are dealt >with in this paper in the background of the monthly mean >sea level change for the northern Pacific. > In general, the mean eustatic sea level(ESL) obviously >rises for the Pacific in twentieth century on the basis >of an analysis of the monthly mean ESL records of both >tide stations over the Pacific and satellite ocean >topography experiment(TOPEX). The average rising rate of >the mean ESL differs from part to part and depends on the >latitude of site. The rise of mean ESL was faster for the >northern Pacific, covering Shanghai than that for the >southern Pacific, whereas the rise of the mean ESL was >slower for the eastern Pacific than that for the western >Pacific. > Locating at the eastern China Sea, the area of fastest >rise in mean ESL in the ChinaAEs coastal waters, the >average rate of rise in the mean ESL in Shanghai was >approximately 0.9mm per year during the period 1912-1959 >and has rapidly increased to 2.0mm per year since 1960. >After manipulation of band-pass filter the annually mean >ESL for Shanghai varied periodically with predominately >interannual and decade trends included. > A statistical model fitting the variation of the mean >ESL is established. It is shown from the model >extrapolation that the mean ESL will rise 5cm and 11cm , >respectively relative to 1990 for Shanghai by the years >of 2010 and 2030. As to the current ground subsidence >mainly resulted from the over-exploitation of ground >water and the average vertical crust deformation and its >trend, it is estimated by the scientists from the >Shanghai Institute of Rock and Geology that the average >subsidence due to the long-term accumulation of ground >water will be 10cm and 15cm ,respectively relative to >1990 for Shanghai by the years of 2010 and 2030. > The measurements of the average vertical crust >deformation by VLBI and their linear extrapolation by the >scientists from the Shanghai Observatory , Academic >Sinica show that the local crust vertically subsides to >2.0cm and 4.0cm ,respectively relative to 1990 for >Shanghai in 2010 and 2030. > The sum of the estimations to the mean ESL and average >ground subsidence gives the mean relative sea level(RSL) >will rise 17cm and 30cm,respectively relative to 1990 for >Shanghai by the years of 2010 and 2030. Considering a >variety of undetermined factors in mean RSL estimations, >the reasonable values of the mean rise in RSL relative to >1990 for Shanghai roughly amount to be 15-25cm in 2010 >and 25-35cm in 2030. > Finally, the reasons why did the mean sea level rise >for Shanghai are tentatively discussed. > >------------------------------------------------------------- > > IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE TIDE, STORM SURGE > AND PROBABLE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL IN SHANGHAI > YI-HONG DUAN, ZENG-HAO QIN AND YONG-PING LI > > (SHANGHAI TYPHOON INSTITUTE,SHANGHAI,CHINA) > > Tides and storm surges, caused by the estimated sea >level rises in 2010 and 2030 for the coastal tide- >stations in Shanghai,are numerically computed in this >paper using a traditional nonlinear 2-D hydrodynamic >model with slight revision. Estimation to the probable >highest water levels resulting from the sea level rises >in 2010 and 2030 are completed as well. It is shown that >the coming sea level rise could result in a decrease in >storm surges depending upon the track and intensity of >the impinging tropical cyclone as well as the geographic >location of the tide-station. > The effect of the coming sea level rise on tide >oscillates with the period as same as that of the tide. >There are no effect of the sea level rise on tide at both >high water and low water. Its effect on tide is positive >for the duration of rise below the mean sea level, >whereas the negative effect occurs for the duration of >(ebb)fall. The opposite conclusion hold true in case it >occurs below the mean sea level. > The impact of the sea level rise on tide becomes >intense when the amplitude of rising sea level increases. > Three intense tropical cyclones impinging Shanghai and >its neighborhood, are chosen in computation and >intensities of these tropical cyclones are forced to >altered hypothetically to ensure that the tropical >cyclone case is profitable to the most dangerous storm >surges happened to Shanghai. After nonlinearly matching >the most dangerous storm surge with appropriate spring >tide, the computational results give the probable highest >water levels for Shanghai in 2010 and 2030 respectively >to be 745cm and 752cm in the background of the known >relative sea level rise estimation done by the present >authors elsewhere. These figures seem to quite useful to >the coastal engineering design in the future for Shanghai >harbor. The method suggested may be effectual for other >metropolis in dealing with the similarity. >_______________________________________________________ > > > > >CONVENTION NETWORK 224 Rouse Street Port Melbourne VIC 3207 AUSTRALIA Telephone: +61 3 9646 4122 Facsimile: +61 3 9646 7737 E-mail: convnet@peg.apc.org