cc: "Timo Hämeranta" , "Alan Robock" , "Ahilleas N. Maurellis" , "Alex Hall" , "Anders Moberg" , "\"André W. Droxler\"" , "Augusto Mangini" , "Bas van Geel" , "Brian A. Tinsley" , "Bruce A. Wielicki" , "Caspar M. Ammann" , "Chris E. Forest" , "Chris K. Folland" , "\"Christian-D. Schönwiese\"" , "Christopher Monckton" , "Craig Loehle" , "David J. Karoly" , "David R. Legates" , "Dennis T. Avery" , "Dian J. Seidel" , "Drew T. Shindell" , "Ehrhard Raschke" , "Enric Pallé" , "Eric Posmentier" , "Eugenia Kalnay" , "George Christakos" , "Gerald E. Marsh" , "Gerard A. Meehl " , "Habibullo I. Abdussamatov" , "Henk Tennekes" , "Ian R. Plimer" , "Igor I. Mokhov" , "James D. Annan" , "Jan Esper" , "Judith L. Lean" , "Jürg Luterbacher" , "Jöel Guiot" , "Keith R. Briffa" , "Ken Caldeira" , "Kevin E. Trenberth" , "Lennart Bengtsson" , "Mark C. Serreze" , "Mark Z. Jacobson" , "Michael Bergin" , "Olavi Kärner" , "Oliver W. Frauenfeld" , "Paul A. Mayewski" , "Peter Foukal" , "Peter M. 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Johannessen" , "Patrick Minnis" , "Peter Stilbs" , "Petr Chylek" , "Richard Betts" , "Richard S. Lindzen" , "Robert S. Knox" , "S. Fred Singer" , "Sallie Baliunas" , "Silvia Duhau" , "Stephen McIntyre" , "Tami C. Bond" , "Thomas N. Chase" , "Wibjörn Karlén" , "Willie Soon" , "Vincent Gray" , "Boris Winterhalter" , "Timo Niroma" , "Atte Korhola" , "Jouni Räisänen" , "Juha Kämäri" , "Juhani Rinne" , "Kalevi Mursula" , "Markku Kulmala" , "Matti Eronen" , "Pekka Plathan" , "Aiguo Dai" , "Gerald Stanhill" , "Dorothy Koch" , "Meinrat O. Andreae" , "William B. Rossow" , "Martin Wild" , "Atsumu Ohmura" , "André Bijkerk" , "Hartwig Volz" , "James J. O'Brien" , "Kevin G. Cannariato" , "Lee C. Gerhard" , "Lowell D. Stott" , "William Kininmonth" , "James E. Hansen" , "Makiko Sato" , "David W. Lea" , "Reto Knutti" , "Mike Hulme" , "Mojib Latif" , "Joanne P Ballard" date: Fri, 16 Mar 2007 23:16:04 +0100 from: "andre bijkerk" subject: Re: Problems with climate sensitivity and tree and ice proxies to: "Charles F. Keller" Charles, In an attempt to improve the factual objectivity, I took to libery to add some contemplations to your observations, using italics. "Charles F. Keller" < [1]cfk@lanl.gov> wrote: but I have two concerns. or four? First is the tone of the paper. Although I understand the motives for the tone, indeed it might be better to maintain objectivity and use the cognitive approach with the scientific method in which the author could focus on the accuracy of the observations and its failure to support the cause of global warming. Two, will all of you get over the "Hockey Stick Curve"? That's a tough one. Now that two teams of recognized specialists (North, Wegman) have confirmed the critiques of McIntyre and McKitrick, many have watched the ultimate result in disbelief. Hockeysticks tend to have strong persuasive powers and the MBH version has done that job extremely well, whilst there was nothing to be persuaded about. That's hard to digest. Science indulges itself in being self corrective, so when things are fishy with miracle cures for AIDS or Cold Fusion or Human Genome duplication then a public rectification follows, which would be especially prudent if the case could even remotely be associated with noble cause corruption. None of that has happened with the most prominent Fig 1b of the Third Assessment Report SPM , on the contrary, it is still in the SPM of the fourth version, albeit concealed in the spaghetti graph. Is it justified to keep global warming in the realm of science where it has made itself immune for self correcting and falsification? Three, I always worry about looking to Greenland as a proxy for AVERAGE hemispheric climate. Consider that recent geologic work has shown that that area lagged most other northern hemisphere and global sites in coming out of the last Ice Age by about 2,000 yrs--hardly a bellweather site. Highly intriguing observation and here is a most essential classical misinterpretation. Note that that particular lagging pattern of the Greenland ice core isotopes are duplicated around most of the Northern Hemisphere (Caracio Basin, Starnberger See in Germany, basically all Speleothems, etc), Nevertheless, other Northern hemisphere proxies, like fossil paleobotanical and palonthologic remains as well as glacier moraine contours confirm synchronous warming with the southern hemisphere over 2000 years before the first isotope spikes of the Bolling Allerod. In other words, it's not Greenland that is anomalous, it's basically all of the Northern Hemisphere isotopes that are anomalous. It should be clear that this should have major consequences for the interpretation of the climate changes during the last glacial transitions. Our motto about that is: Non Calor, Sed Umor Also, I was looking at a map of greenland showing the ice that survived the last interglacial (Eemeian (never could spell these words correctly). Eemian, or, if so desired, Sangamonian; It had shrunk to a rather small area. If we are to believe the graph of temperature in the past 10,000 years in the article below, might we not have to assume that most of Greenland melted, as it did in the Eemeian? Greenland summit ice cores are assumed to reach over 200,000 years but the stratification became highly suspect beyond 110,000 years so basically it is thought to have survived the Eemian, as it did with the Holocene Thermal Optimum roughly from 9000-6000 years ago, when the trees grew at the present Arctic coast line of North Siberia and fossil remains suggest local temperatures up to 5 degrees higher than today. Of course we have the NH summer insolation maximum but nevertheless, impressive temperatures. It's hard to figure out how the earth could have been as warm as the authors say and have kept all that ice . But orographic glaciers depend on more than temperature, it's a bit more complex: too cold, little snow and glaciers receding, or warmer with lot's of snow and glaciers advancing, it's all possible. The trees in Siberia also reveal that the Holocene Thermal Optimum was quite wet on a large scale, dovetailing with the African Humid Period, the American Fluvial Lakes and the glacier responses in the Andes. Glaciers may have survived thanks to generous supplies. Four, and perhaps most important. When might we expect to see this paper in a refereed journal such as JGR, GRL, J. of Climate or the real Science? Until then one must wonder whether the authors are wary of peer comments from those who know this research best. I trust that the author will move on carefully to meet the usual standards Regards Andre Bijkerk