cc: "raymond s. bradley" , Caspar Ammann date: Fri, 09 May 2008 10:00:45 -0400 from: Michael Mann subject: Re: A couple of things to: Phil Jones Phil--thanks for the updates. Most of this I've seen from you (including that junk from this Holland joker). Will be very interesting to see how this plays out. I fear that contrarians will attempt to use this, as you allude to, to undermine our confidence in the observational record. Something to keep in mind when giving interviews about the paper--important to steer journalists in the right direction on this story. we'll almost certainly want to do something about this on 'realclimate'. as for the bet, well this was mostly Stefan's idea, and it isn't because we think it anyway that the authors are playing into a contrarian agenda. we just don't think the forecast is credible, and every time a prominent prediction turns out to be wrong, it costs us as a community some credibility. as for the Pategonian eruption, I'm skeptical it will do all that much, extratropical and winter season--shouldn't have much opportunity for a major dust veil, I guess we'll see! talk later, mike Phil Jones wrote: > >> Mike, Ray, Caspar, > A couple of things - don't pass on either. > > 1. Have seen you're RC bet. Not entirely sure this is the right way > to go, > but it will drum up some discussion. > > Anyway Mike and Caspar have seen me present possible problems with the > SST data (in the 1940s/50s and since about 2000). The first of these > will appear > in Nature on May 29. There should be a News and Views item with this > article > by Dick Reynolds. The paper concludes by pointing out that SSTs now > (or since > about 2000, when the effect gets larger) are likely too low. This > likely won't > get corrected quickly as it really needs more overlap to increase > confidence. > > Bottom line for me is that it appears SSTs now are about 0.1 deg C > too cool > globally. Issue is that the preponderance of drifters now (which > measure SST > better but between 0.1 and 0.2 lower than ships) mean anomalies are low > relative to the ship-based 1961-90 base. > > This also means that the SST base the German modellers used in their > runs > was likely too warm by a similar amount. This applies to all > modellers, reanalyses etc. > > There will be a lot of discussion of the global T series with people > saying we can't > even measure it properly now. > > The 1940s/50s problem with SSTs (the May 29 paper) also means there > will be > warmer SSTs for about 10 years. This will move the post-40s cooling > to a little > later - more in line with higher sulphate aerosol loading in the late > 50s and 1960s70s. > The paper doesn't provide a correction. This will come, but will > include the addition > of loads more British SSTs for WW2, which may very slightly cool the > WW2 years. > More British SST data have also been digitized for the late 1940s. > Budget > constraints mean that only about half the RN log books have been > digitized. Emphasis > has been given to the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean log books. > > As an aside, it is unfortunate that there are few in the Pacific. > They have digitized > all the logbooks of the ships journeys from the Indian Ocean south of > Australia and NZ > to Seattle for refits. Nice bit of history here - it turns out that > most of the ships are > US ones the UK got under the Churchill/Roosevelt deal in early 1940. > All the RN bases > in South Africa, India and Australia didn't have parts for these > ships for a few years. > > So the German group would be stupid to take your bet. There is a likely > ongoing negative volcanic event in the offing! > > > 2. You can delete this attachment if you want. Keep this quiet also, but > this is the person who is putting in FOI requests for all emails > Keith and Tim > have written and received re Ch 6 of AR4. We think we've found a way > around this. > > I can't wait for the Wengen review to come out with the Appendix > showing what > that 1990 IPCC Figure was really based on. > > The Garnaut review appears to be an Australian version of the Stern > Report. > > This message will self destruct in 10 seconds! > > Cheers > Phil > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 > University of East Anglia > Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk > NR4 7TJ > UK > ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm