date: Mon Jul 18 15:42:46 2005 from: Keith Briffa subject: Fwd: Re: updated MWP figure to: Tim Osborn Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 09:10:43 -0600 To: tcrowley@eos.duke.edu From: Jonathan Overpeck Subject: Fwd: Re: updated MWP figure Cc: Keith Briffa , t.osborn@uea.ac.uk, Eystein Jansen Hi Tom -- thanks for the extra effort. I'm pushing others on the author team to think hard about such a figure (space may end up being the hardest part), and I should have something to discuss w/ you soon. Thanks for being willing to shift priorities if needed. FYI - I just got reviews back from an EOS piece that took over a 1.5 months to get. And of course, they want some edits. Not the speedy venue we once knew a loved, although I bet if you really keep it short and sweet it might go faster. Best, more soon, peck X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 10:13:49 -0400 From: Tom Crowley X-Accept-Language: en-us, en To: Jonathan Overpeck Cc: Eystein Jansen Subject: Re: updated MWP figure Hi Jonathan, let me answer the last question first - there are actually not many records that go back that far and I have used, I think, every one except Quelcaya, which being from the southern tropics makes for a lonely but potential future inclusion (which makes no difference on the conclusion). several of the sites include multiple time series - e.g., western U.S. time series, w. Siberia time series, e. Asia, and w. Greenland. I did not want to overweight any site though because of the need for a geographic balance -- note that there are four sites each in the w. hemisphere and e. hemisphere, and that the distribution of sites in each hemisphere represents a good scatter. for almost all of these sites the references are easily imaginable based on the location of the site, but they can be provided if you are interested in including the figure. can you think of any long sites I have not included? right now I cannot..... in the overlap interval of 1500-1850 our composite has highly significant correlations with the Mann, Jones, and Briffa reconstructions that contain much more data -- thereby suggesting that use of only long time series provides a "reasonable" estimate of the last 1100 years. I have not submitted this for publication but if you are interested in including this in ipcc I can knock off a tutorial note to eos on short notice..... I am attaching the figure in several different alternate formats - cannot easily do the two you suggest from my mac, but again I can get that done with more work if you are interested - let me know where to go next - note that I originally sent this along fyi, only to be used if you thought the figure was worthwhile -- if not I will just reorder the priority of writing it up as a note, tom Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Tom - thanks for sending this plot. I'm a bit late in responding since we were moving to (and still into) our sabbatical digs in SW CO. Would you be willing to provide more on this plot in order for me to understand it better? I personally like the plot quite a bit, but between the space restrictions and other's assessment, whether we use it or not will take some real thinking. For example, it would help to have 1) a higher resolution version - eps or ai? 2) a caption or text that would spell out which records are included, and their origins (references) 3) a bibliography for those refs. 4) perhaps, you have a paper with this included? If so, can you send a prerprint? 5) some discussion of why you used the series (sites) you did, and not others - more specifically, what's wrong with others? If you don't mind helping here, I'll promise to get it in the mix for serious discussion. Of course, it's already in the mix since Eystein forwarded to Keith, and you Tim, but I want to weigh in as informed as possible. Trying to keep track of a lot, so your help is much appreciated. Thanks! Peck Hello, I have been fiddling with the best way to illustrate the stable nature of the medieval warm period - the attached plot has eight sites that go from 946-1960 in decadal std. dev. units - although small in number there is a good geographic spread -- four are from the w. hemisphere, four from the east. I also plot the raw composite of the eight sites and scale it to the 30-90N decadal temp. record. this record illustrates how the individual sites are related to the composite and also why the composite has no dramatically warm MWP -- there is no dramatically warm clustering of the individual sites. use or lose as you wish, tom -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [1]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [2]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/