cc: ,,, ,,"'Phil Jones'" , , "'Thorsten Kiefer'" , date: Wed, 11 Jul 2007 09:10:29 +0100 from: Keith Briffa subject: Re: PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection to: ,, "'Eystein Jansen'" Hi Heinz I am in agreement with your outline - I would like to stress my own bias that PAGES (and the rest of us) need to be pursuing the issue of model validation (or specific process validation if you prefer) . There is much to be done on the area of exploring how models simulate the climate variability (and the nature of the association with forcings) that we reconstruct from the palaeodata. Many people, scientists among them, believe that the issue of global warming has nothing to gain from palaeolcimate studies and they are wrong. Issues such as the climate sensitivity of models versus the real world and the roles of specific forcings and their influence on the future, represent important foci for continued study. I would like to see this area of work and collaboration between palaeoclimatologists and climate (and ecological) modelers as an explicit priority of future work. At 14:41 09/07/2007, Heinz Wanner wrote: >Dear Gavin, dear Eystein, > >PAGES has actually to formulate its new >implementation plan. This gave us the >opportunity also to discuss our engagement >within the PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection part. >Beside the publication of a basic methodological >paper (coordinated by Phil) the decision of the >Wengen meeting was (as far as I know): >a) to organize a methodological workshop in >Trieste (June 2008, mainly organized by Kim Cobb and Sandy Tudhope); >b) to start the so-called PAGES/CLIVAR >Reconstruction Challenge with three working >groups: Modelling, pseudoproxies and reconstructions. > >In addition, Focus 2 of the new PAGES >implementation plan intends to continue (or to >start) to reconstruct the climate of the last 2 >ka with a very high resolution (continental, >seasonal). If possible, the three important >state parameters temperature, precipitation and >air pressure should be reconstructed. Some >groups already started with this work: Europe, >North and South America. New initiatives will >likely be taken by teams from Asia/China, Australia and the Arctic. > >The question is now how we can coordinate these >activities. Our suggestion is to organize two >well coordinated meetings in 2008 and 2009: > >2008 >- Workshops by the three working groups of the >PAGES/CLIVAR Reconstruction Challenge, followed >by the methodological PAGES/CLIVAR workshop in Trieste (June 2008). > >2009 >PAGES Open Science Meeting in the U.S.: Special >session on the actual results of PAGES, Focus 2: >Regional reconstructions. The different modules >of this workshop should be organized by the >leaders of the different regional teams, such as >Luterbacher, Briffa and Esper for Europe, Ammann >and Wahl for North America, or Villalba and Grosjean for South America. > >1. Can I ask Kim and Sandy to answer whether >they have already made plans for Trieste. The >PAGES office offers to help to organize this meeting. >2. Caspar, can you send out the official text of >the PAGES/CLIVAR Reconstruction Challenge >immediately. This text could form the basis for >the definitive formation of the three working >groups (and for the nomination of the group >leaders – normally a difficult task!). >3. I will personally help to plan the session of >the U.S. Open Science session on regional reconstructions in 2009. > >The PAGES SSC meets soon in Australia. I will >not attend this meeting, but Thorsten Kiefer >will present the above mentioned ideas there. We >ask all recipients of this mail to comment this >concept and to send us our ideas or propositions. > >With very bets regards, Heinz > >------------------------------------------------------------------- >Dr. Heinz Wanner >Prof., Director NCCR Climate >------------------------------------------------------------------- > >Office Institute of Geography: >Hallerstrasse 12, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland) >Phone +41 (0)31 631 88 85 / Secr.: 88 59 >Mail: wanner@giub.unibe.ch >www.giub.unibe.ch/klimet > >Office NCCR Climate: >Erlachstrasse 9a, CH-3012 Bern (Switzerland) >Phone +41 (0)31 631 31 60 / Secr.: 31 45 >Mail: wanner@giub.unibe.ch >www.nccr-climate.unibe.ch >------------------------------------------------------------------ > -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/