cc: 'Philip Newton' , "'cvy@nerc.ac.uk'" , "'cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk'" , "'nth@nerc.ac.uk'" , "'nrc@nerc.ac.uk'" date: Fri, 23 Nov 2001 13:39:47 -0000 from: Bill Turrell subject: RE: RCC Science Plan, and Exciting Results to: lkeigwin@whoi.edu, plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de, ewwo@bas.ac.uk, "r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk" , Simon.J.Brown@defra.gsi.gov.uk, mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk, haugan@gfi.uib.no, studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk, Bill Turrell , rwood@meto.gov.uk, sfbtett@meto.gov.uk, j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk, p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk, j.lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk, jym@soc.soton.ac.uk, pc@soc.soton.ac.uk, a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk, k.briffa@uea.ac.uk, m.hulme@uea.ac.uk, 'Meric Srokosz' Meric Well done on a good start to the Science Plan. Please find comments below. General 1. Have you narrowed "rapid" down to "annual to centennial" ? This phrase is used in specific objectives 2 and 7, but elsewhere "millennial", "decadal - multi-decadal" (e.g. p6) . "multi-decadal" (p9) and other time scales (e.g. p9 "Rapid climate change events, such as 8.3kyr event" ) creep in. Does this need streamlining ? "annual - centennial" may be too restrictive, but still I think it should be clearer what time scales will be focused on. 2. Throughout cited references are a little NERC-ish. In a thematic program, is it wise to focus at this stage too much on one "view" ? I especially feel this in Sections 2 (see below), and 5. 3. Section 2. I know this may sound like blowing our own trumpet, but I do feel that the long-standing Norwegian / UK / Faroe collaborations has shown some of the aspects of recent change which section 2 refers to. I suggest that the following references are included (I indicate in the document where). This goes with the comment above. As this is part of a UK/ Norway initiative, the document may be read by non-UK scientists. If so, it weakens it if it appears we are unaware of work happening elsewhere, particularly in the Nordic region. The development of evidence that outflow over the Greenland-Scotland Ridge is changing follows this progression: a) Norwegian Sea deepwater is warming (due to re-supply from convection ceasing) Østerhus, S. and Gammelsrod, T. The abyss of the Nordic Seas is warming. Journal of Climate. 1999; 12(11):3297-3304. b) Outflow is freshening Turrell, W. R.; Slesser, G.; Adams, R. D.; Payne, R., and Gillibrand, P. A. Decadal variability in the composition of Faroe Shetland Channel Bottom Water. Deep-Sea Research. 1999; 46:1-25. c) Outflow is warming Hansen, B. and Kristiansen, R. Variations of the Faroe Bank Channel overflow. Rit Fiskideildar. 1999; 16:13-22. d) Outflow is weakening Hansen, B.; Turrell, W. R., and Østerhus, S. Decreasing overflow from the Nordic seas into the Atlantic Ocean through the Faroe Bank Channel since 1950. Nature. 2001; 411:927-930. e) Effect is propagating out into the abyssal N Atlantic Dickson, R. R.; Meincke, J.; Turrell, W. R.; Dye, S. R.; Yashayaev, I. M., and Holfort, J. First evidence of a deep ocean response to high latitude climate forcing. Nature. Submitted. D and e are our latest "exciting results"., and I think add a little urgency and realism to the concept of assessing the probability of rapid climate change impacting European climate. 4. Deliverables: These do not directly tie to the 8 objectives. You may have decided conciously not to do this. However, I think we should have a deliverable which explicitly meets the objective (8) "to quantify the probability and magnitude of rcc". After all, this is the up-front purpose of the programme. I am afraid you did not re-send the implementation plan in a form I could read, but I now have this through Julia's comments. Hence can I comment on these for Monday ? I attach a copy of the Science plan, with trivial typos indicated. Bill <> * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Dr W R Turrell Tel (Operator) : +44 (0) 1224 876544 Oceanographic Research and Services Group Tel (Direct) : +44 (0) 1224 295429 Marine Laboratory Aberdeen Fax : +44 (0) 1224 295511 PO Box 101, Victoria Road Mobile : +44 (0) 7867 904 954 Aberdeen, AB11 9DB E-mail : turrellb@marlab.ac.uk Scotland URL : http://www.marlab.ac.uk/ The Marine Laboratory is a division of Fisheries Research Services An Agency of the Scottish Executive * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * > ---------- > From: Meric Srokosz[SMTP:mas@soc.soton.ac.uk] > Sent: 15 November 2001 14:31 > To: lkeigwin@whoi.edu; plemke@awi-bremerhaven.de; ewwo@bas.ac.uk; > r.r.dickson@cefas.co.uk; Simon.J.Brown@defra.gsi.gov.uk; > mccave@esc.cam.ac.uk; haugan@gfi.uib.no; studhope@glg.ed.ac.uk; > B.Turrell@marlab.ac.uk; rwood@meto.gov.uk; sfbtett@meto.gov.uk; > j.m.slingo@reading.ac.uk; p.j.valdes@reading.ac.uk; j.lowe@rhbnc.ac.uk; > jym@soc.soton.ac.uk; pc@soc.soton.ac.uk; a.j.watson@uea.ac.uk; > k.briffa@uea.ac.uk; m.hulme@uea.ac.uk > Cc: ppn@nerc.ac.uk; cvy@nerc.ac.uk; cg1@soc.soton.ac.uk; nth@nerc.ac.uk; > nrc@nerc.ac.uk > Subject: Rapid draft Science and Implementation Plans > > <><><> > Dear all, as promised here is the draft of the Rapid Science Plan that > I have put together with input from the writing team. Attached as well > is an Implementation Plan draft put together by Christine and myself. > I have tried to take account of all the inputs I have received in drafting > this version of the Science Plan. > > Notes: > a) the implementation plan is far from complete as we need various > decisions from the next Steering Committee meeting (e.g. approval > of Science Plan, schedule for AOs, etc...). However, as it is a so- > called "living document" it will evolve over time in any case. > b) the science plan is about 11 pages long, with a 1 page plain English > summary to be added, plus 3 pages of references. I would not want it to > be much longer, so if you want to add something them something else > needs to be shortened! Suggestions for tightening / sharpening up the > plan are welcome. > c) I think that it is worth keeping the 3 pages of references as an > appendix. They will be useful as a starting point for new people > entering the field. > d) I am aware of the need to link observations (present day and palaeo) > to the modelling, and have tried to make this clear in the plan. However, > the observational objectives are stated separately as I think this is > a "cleaner" way of framing them. If there is a better way to frame the > objectives in a more integrated way, please let me know. > e) at the moment the 8th (last) objective is a bit of a catch-all and > attempts > to cover things that are integrative and cannot be fitted into the other 7 > objectives. I feel that something is necessary in this way and would > welcome ideas on how to improve this. > > The schedule now is: > a) comments / revisions from the Steering Committee to me by 22/11 > b) I will revise / re-draft plans for inclusion by Catrin in next SC > papers > by 27/11 > c) papers will be sent out to SC on Fri 30/11 by Catrin > (about 2 weeks before meeting, given constraints of SC people > being involved in NOClim and AGU meetings) > d) decision on these at next SC meeting 18/12 in London > > Happy reading! Regards, Meric > > p.s. the attached files are in Word format. If this is a problem, let me > know > and I will send them in RTF or some other format. > Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\RCC_Sci2 turrell.doc"