date: Mon, 12 Jan 2004 16:12:55 +0200
from: Timothy Carter <tim.carter@ymparisto.fi>
subject: Re: ruosteenoja manuscript
to: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@uea.ac.uk>

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Dear Mike,

Happy 2004 to you too!

Yes, the report is downloadable from the DDC at:

http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/asres/scatter_plots/scatterplots_home.html

and the scatters are available online. The report is also being printed - I 
have the proofs on my desk right now.

There was a delay due to interpretation of the 2 SD ellipses showing 
multi-decadal nat. variability. It appears that one cannot simply compare 
the scatter points with the 2 * SD range to establish stat. significance. 
One should also multiply the 2 * SD by SQRT 2, to account for the fact that 
the modelled baseline and the modelled future are BOTH affected by natural 
variability. This statistical point was brought up by a reviewer of the 
current report, and the wording has been adjusted in this report though the 
plots have not been revised. The "error" is also included in a number of 
our previous publications. Note that it was missed by about 20 other 
reviewers of this and previous reports!! It doesn't really affect the major 
conclusions that might be drawn from the earlier documents, but it ain't 
right all the same!

Best regards,

Tim

At 15:41 12.1.2004, you wrote:
>Tim,
>
>Just come across an old (December 2002) manuscript from Ruosteenoja, 
>Carter, Jylha and Tuomenvirta on future climate in world regions.
>
>I guess you must have sent me this; has it appeared in print or on the web 
>in its final form?  It would be useful for one of my students.
>
>Many thanks and best wishes for the New Year!
>
>Mike

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