cc: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 09:38:56 -0400 from: "Raymond S. Bradley" subject: Re: attached figure to: Sarah Raper Dear Sarah: I showed the figure at the Senate Hearing at which I was a panel member with Bob Watson. He raised no objection. The figure was patched together at short notice in two versions --- one with the various annotations about model assumptions, the other without (just showing shaded bands). In later discussions with Bob, he felt that it would be OK to use a figure without the annotations as it essentially just shows the range of current model projections for the next century which are about the same as in previous IPCC reports -- that was the only point that I was trying to make at the hearing. I realise that the figure showing details of future change was restricted, and I probably should have shown the one without annotations, but the overall point I made was no different than a figure published in a Greenpeace report on Global Warming several years ago (though that one was based on guestimates about both past and future change). I thought the hearing was such an extraordinary opportunity to impress upon those (previously disinterested) Senators present the significance of projected future change versus recent climate history that I should show the figure. In retrospect, I should have simply shown a fan (range) of potential temperature estimates --- but the figure would have been more or less the same. Later on, the White House Office of Science & Technology called to ask for a copy of the figure. I was reluctant to release it for the reasons you cite. I suggested that they use an un-annotated version, but that they should check with Bob Watson directly before using it ( I had tried repeatedly to contact Bob about this very issue, but could never get hold of him). I understand that they did so and that he felt that a figure showing the range of projected increases was OK. I do not know what they wanted to use it for.....presumably, some White House political effort......at one point the Wall Street Journal also wanted to use it, but they apparently decided it did not support their philosophy of dumping on the idea of global warming! In summary, the only place that this figure was exposed to public scrutiny was in a brief appearance at the Senate Hearing. I do think it is a very compelling figure and in fact, I'm surprised that the IPCC did not think of putting such a figure together. If they had done so, I think it would have been the most cited figure in the report. I'm sorry if you feel that I mis-used your work -- but there have been so few opportunities to get the message across to U.S. politicians at a very high level (Sen. McCain called the hearing) that I thought I should create the figure. Ray At 11:42 AM 6/23/00 +0100, you wrote: >Dear Ray, > >I was a bit concerned when I found this figure on the CRU printer. It uses, >without my prior knowledge, the simple model projects that I have produced >for the TAR . These must have come from the TAR Government and Expert >Review Draft which is clearly marked 'Do Not Cite. Do Not Quote.' I see >from the email below that the figure was presented at a U.S. Senate Hearing >last month. I therefore copy this email to the WG1 TSU for their information. > >Regards, > >Sarah > >At 11:12 AM 6/23/00 +0100, you wrote: > > > >>X-Sender: rbradley@eclogite.geo.umass.edu > >>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2 > >>Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2000 16:17:04 -0400 > >>To: k.briffa@uea.ac.uk > >>From: "Raymond S. Bradley" > >>Subject: check this out > >> > >>I attach a figure that attracted a lot of attention when I showed it at > >>the U.S. Senate Hearing last month...is this something we should put into > >>the chapter (I guess we could patch together the other paleo-estimates > >>too). It really puts the future changes projected by IPCC into > >>perspective! It would provide a nice link between IGBP/PAGES science & > >>WCRP/IPCC > >>Ray > >> > >> > >> > >> > >>Raymond S. Bradley > >>Professor and Head of Department > >>Department of Geosciences > >>University of Massachusetts > >>Amherst, MA 01003-5820 > >>Tel: 413-545-2120 > >>Fax: 413-545-1200 > >>Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 > >>Climate System Research Center Web Site: > >><http://www.geo.umass.edu/c >li > >>mate/climate.html > >>Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999): > >>http://www.geo.umass.edu/clim >at > >>e/paleo/html > > > >Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Mannetal_&_future2.pdf" > >-- > >Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, > >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom > >Phone: +44-1603-592090 Fax: +44-1603-507784 > > > > >****************************** >* Dr. Sarah Raper * >* Climatic Research Unit * >* University of East Anglia * >* Norwich * >* NR4 7TJ * >* * >* Tel. + 44 1603 592089 * >* Fax. + 44 1603 507784 * >****************************** Raymond S. Bradley Professor and Head of Department Department of Geosciences University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003-5820 Tel: 413-545-2120 Fax: 413-545-1200 Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659 Climate System Research Center Web Site: <http://www.geo.umass.edu/cli mate/climate.html Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999): http://www.geo.umass.edu/climat e/paleo/html