date: Fri, 16 Jul 1999 09:28:49 +0100 from: "Caroline Fish" subject: Re: Regional Impacts of Climate Change - not protectively marked to: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk Mike Many thanks for the information on regional impacts of climate change. I would be grateful if you could give some indication of timescales, and more specific locations and magnitudes of these impacts. This does not necessarily have to be informed by work in progress, but could be from work already completed. The information is for internal use and will not be made public. Could you also let me know if/when we would be able to have access to the drafts of the regional chapters. Regards Caroline Fish >>> Mike Hulme 08/07/99 08:34:43 >>> Caroline, This is pre-empting WGII of IPCC a little. Each of the zero-order drafts of the reigonal chapters will have summarised the literature on impacts for these regions. Access to these drafts however is still restricted. But here are some suggestions .......... China - increased flooding risk due to increased precip. intensities - sea-level rise increasing risk of coastal city flooding India - effects on agriculture, possibly favourable - exacerbation of air pollution problems in cities - change in river flow regimes, some positive/some negative Brazil - forest die-back with accelerated warming Indonesia - forest die-back (?) with accelerated warming Philippines - changes in typhoon frequency USA - there is the big US national assessment underway - you should tap in to these results Japan - increased summer mortality due to heat stree - increased need for air conditioning Australia - coral bleaching in the Barrier Reef - cold habitat loss in the Australian Alps - increased risk of bush fires - increased need for irrigation in some states/counties You (Penny) may be interested to know that I am preparing national-level climate change scenarios for all of these countries (except India), plus another 6, for WWF International and these will be released in the run-up to COP5. I do not consider impacts per se, but our scenarios are intended to provoke interest and action in the countries concerned. Regards, Mike At 13:38 07/07/99 +0100, you wrote: >It has been rightly brought to my attention that some context would be helpful regarding my previous message (copied below). > >It's primarily to brief those on the policy side. The idea is not to have all-encompassing points, but rather just a few impacts which may the most significant, or the most persuasive in terms of getting people to consider the potential impacts of climate change. Please do not spend too much time on this, just let me know of any points that you may have at your fingertips. > >Thank you > >Caroline > > > >Dear All > >I would be grateful if you could send me any bullet point, 'headline' climate change impacts that you may be aware of from existing studies regarding the following countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines, US, Japan and Australia. > >Many thanks >Caroline Fish > >Dr Caroline Fish >Global Atmosphere Division >DETR >Tel: 0171 890 3358 >Fax 0171 890 5219 > >********************************************************************** >Department of the Environment, Transport & Regions > >This email and any files transmitted with it are private and >intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they >are addressed. > >This email does not constitute a commitment by DETR. >********************************************************************** > ***************************************************************************** Dr Mike Hulme Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162 Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784 School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@uea.ac.uk University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/ Norwich NR4 7TJ ***************************************************************************** Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999 is about +1.5 deg C above the 1961-90 average *************************************************** The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998 was +0.57 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet recorded ***************************************************************************** ********************************************************************** Department of the Environment, Transport & Regions This email and any files transmitted with it are private and intended solely for the use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed. This email does not constitute a commitment by DETR. **********************************************************************