cc: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk, Keith Briffa date: Thu, 08 Jun 2006 08:41:58 +0100 from: peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk subject: Re: BP briefing to: Tim Osborn Hi Tim, Than you very much for your material. My brief was to keep it brief (and I had 4 disparate topics to cover) so I included only one of your ppt slides - the one showing the models overlying the reconstructions. However it turned out that the Chief Scientist of BP knows a lot about this particular subject (thank goodness I'd done my homework !) including keeping up to date with the latest published literature, so he asked lots of questions and we had a good discussion in which I was able to fill him in on some of the latest developments. The ipcc discussion in chap 6 of the AR4 was also very helpful for my preparation ! There was a very interesting discussion at the end of the meeting. BP would like scientists to come up with a target and then their CE can go and sell it to World leaders. In the meantime they'll carry on running their business maximising profit for their shareholders according to the business environment they're operating in. Cheers, Peter On Wed, 2006-05-24 at 16:51, Tim Osborn wrote: > Peter - I've discussed with Keith and attach a few PPT > slides. Hopefully they are of some use. They are: > > (1) A composite of various NH temperature reconstructions done by us > pre-Moberg, but then Science added the Moberg series and published it > again (without telling us or acknowledging us would you believe!). > > (2) A composite of various simulated NH temperature time series > published recently by us (a month or so ago in Clim. Dyn.). > > (3-4) These show the envelope of reconstructions in grey, then > overlaid in red by the envelope of model simulations. Useful showing > model consistency with the real world. Not yet published. Please > don't give to anyone else, but feel free to use it for your > presentation if you want. > > (5-11) Set of slides from our recent Science paper, hopefully self explanatory. > > Feel free to use or not use any of this material as you see fit. It > would be nice to know, however, if you do use any of it. > > Cheers > > Tim > > At 14:05 24/05/2006, you wrote: > >Dear Tim and Keith > > > >I have to give a presentation to senior BP Executives next Wednesday > >(list is > >Steven E. Koonin Chief Scientist > >Joseph P. Merlini, Director Strategic Cooperation > >Chris J. Mottershead, Distinguished Advisor, Energy & the Environment > >John K. Wells, Vice President Environment > >Duncan G.M. Eggar, Senior Business Advisor & Team Leader -Sustainable > >Mobility) > >answering amongst other questions the following question > > > >"Many papers published in the past few years show that the MBH record > >very likely under-estimates temperature variability over the past 1500 > >years. Presumably the GCMs were able to reproduce (or were tuned to) > >the low MBH variability. How do they have to be modified to reproduce > >the greater variability? What implications does that have for > >attribution and predictions going forward?" > > > >Figures 6.10 and Fig 6.13 of the IPCC AR4 would be useful but of course > >they are still under wraps. Alternatively the latest equivalent I have > >is from Mann et al, EOS, 84, 256-258, 2003 but this does not include > >series like Moberg 2005. Do you know whether there is a more recent > >equivalent published like Fig 6.10 and 6.13 ? > > > >Many thanks for any help or pointers, > >Peter > > > >-- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Dr. Peter Stott Climate Scientist Met Office > > Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Reading Unit) > > Meteorology Building, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB > > Tel: +44 (0)118 378 5613 Fax: +44 (0)118 378 5615 > > Mobile: 07753880683 > > E-mail:peter.stott@metoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk > > NOTE WILL ALSO BE AT EXETER PART OF EACH WEEK > >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ > > Dr Timothy J Osborn, Academic Fellow > Climatic Research Unit > School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia > Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK > > e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk > phone: +44 1603 592089 > fax: +44 1603 507784 > web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ > sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm --